WI: Dukakis wins the 1988 presidential election

Dukakis was leading in the polls for much of the race, until a series of events took him down, including a major debate gaffe (coldly responding to a question about his wife being assaulted), the infamous tank picture, and the Willie Horton attack ads.

In an alternate timeline where Dukakis beats Bush (perhaps none of these aforementioned stumbles occur), how does that impact American politics going forward?

Does the recession of 1990-91 still take place? If so, are the Republicans favored to take back the White House in 1992, despite having a very shallow bench of formidable candidates? E.g., Dole '92 would probably only be marginally more impressive than Dole '96. I suppose Kemp might be seen as a return to Reagan, but will people want a return to Reagan, or something entirely new?

How does Dukakis handle Iraq's invasion of Kuwait?

Does Perot still run? I assume that Dukakis and a Democratic Congress will both raise taxes and balloon the deficit, making room for Perot in 1992 if he wants to run. Could Perot have possibly run as a Republican that year?
 
Dukakis was leading in the polls for much of the race, until a series of events took him down, including a major debate gaffe (coldly responding to a question about his wife being assaulted), the infamous tank picture, and the Willie Horton attack ads.

In an alternate timeline where Dukakis beats Bush (perhaps none of these aforementioned stumbles occur), how does that impact American politics going forward?

Does the recession of 1990-91 still take place? If so, are the Republicans favored to take back the White House in 1992, despite having a very shallow bench of formidable candidates? E.g., Dole '92 would probably only be marginally more impressive than Dole '96. I suppose Kemp might be seen as a return to Reagan, but will people want a return to Reagan, or something entirely new?

How does Dukakis handle Iraq's invasion of Kuwait?

Does Perot still run? I assume that Dukakis and a Democratic Congress will both raise taxes and balloon the deficit, making room for Perot in 1992 if he wants to run. Could Perot have possibly run as a Republican that year?

A Dukakis win would be a narrow win. The early 90s recession still happens, but Dukakis probably won't take a beating over it politically like Bush did as he won't be so tone deaf and out of touch in dealing with it. He might also push for a Stimulus Package of sorts and if he gets it, that to might soften the blow of the recession.

As for Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, it might very well be prevented. If I remember correctly, The Bush administration gave Saddam mixed signals about whether or not we'd support him in such action (we backed Saddam during the Iran/Iraq War of the 80's), it wasn't until after the fact that the Bush administration came out strongly against the Invasion. I've also heard around on this sight over the years that Congress in the late '80's passed legislation that would've prevented such an invasion from taking place, but both Reagan and Bush vetoed it. Dukakis might not veto such legislation. If it still happens, I imagine Sanctions are implemented, but if that doesn't work, with Carter's presidency still being fresh in the minds of the country, I could see Dukakis taking military action, and if things start to get out of hand, he might not have a choice but to take action. I can't say with certainty how well a War would go under Dukakis, I'm inclined to believe the end result would be similar to OTL, but anything is possible.

As for '92, it would be a competitive race, but I would say Dukakis has a better chance at re election than Bush. I do think Dukakis would've dealt with the Recession better than Bush did and while he certainly wouldn't have the Foreign Policy success that HW Bush had OTL, I can't see him having any massive fuck ups either. I'd say it all depends on who the GOP nominates. If it's Dole, I think Dukakis wins. If it's someone else, it's a toss up. Possible candidates include Jack Kemp, Pete Wilson if he stays in the Senate instead of running for Governor of California, Carroll Campbell, who was the Governor of South Carolina, Dick Lugar, who was the Senior Senator from Indiana, Dick Cheney, who would've been House Minority Whip, Donald Rumsfeld, and Lamar Alexander. I could see Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin making a run for it to. Perot might not run either as some have said he had a personal grudge against Bush and that motivated him to run OTL, but then again he was concerned about the deficit so anything is possible. The 1990 midterms likely see Republican gains, whether they retake either House of Congress is anyone's guess (if they do the Senate is more likely than the House). I doubt it would be a 1994 or 2010 style blow out though.
 
President Duke! By the great Charles P Pierce (who worked on Mo Udall’s campaign).

Trains of course. Dukakis will build trains. He’ll also try and do healthcare reform, I’d say his odds are better than Clinton but not by a lot.

Does Perot still run? I assume that Dukakis and a Democratic Congress will both raise taxes and balloon the deficit, making room for Perot in 1992 if he wants to run.

? Democratic Presidents reduce the deficit, Republicans increase it. Of course the post Cold War recession could change things. It also depends on how well the Savings & Loans crisis goes, that was a major factor of the 1990-1991 recession.

Perot… well you honestly can’t say. He quit in the middle of the run after all, and he was always very worried about his delusions of persecution by the CIA. Plus it was more NAFTA and economic problems that made him run, the deficit was a convientent target as it often is. It’s totally plausible he enters, equally so he doesn’t.
 
What are his cabinet options?:

- Geraldine Ferraro as Attorney General
- Walter Mondale as Secretary of State
- Texas State Treasurer, Ann Richards as Secretary of the Treasury following her silver spoon keynote speech

For African American support
- Jesse Jackson
- Shirley Chisholm

- John Glenn
- Al Gore
- Joe Biden
- Bill Clinton
- Reubin Askew
- Alan Cranston
- Ernest Hollings
- George McGovern

Massachusetts allies
- Ted Kennedy
- John Kerry
- Tip O’Neil
- Thomas P. O’Neil III
 
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