WI: Duchy of Warsaw survives the Congress of Vienna

What if, for any reason, the Duchy of Warsaw gets to keep it's borders after the fall of Napoleon? Will we have a buffer state between Prussia and Russia? Will Warsaw align itself to France?


P.S. This comes with butterflies but is it more likely that Warsaw will join the Entente during WW1?
 
What if, for any reason, the Duchy of Warsaw gets to keep it's borders after the fall of Napoleon? Will we have a buffer state between Prussia and Russia? Will Warsaw align itself to France?


P.S. This comes with butterflies but is it more likely that Warsaw will join the Entente during WW1?

Um, that's almost what happened. Congress Poland was a little smaller and not quite in the same place, but it was equally unviable. Russia would pull it into its orbit and probably annex it later all the same. How exactly would Warsaw align itself to France in a post-Napoleonic era where the conservative monarchies of Europe dictate things?

WW1 is way too far to speculate about (including whether one will even happen in any recognizable form) with that POD. Although to be fair, I see so little difference here compared to OTL that the timeline could be joined with OTL a few decades after Napoleon's fall and the flaw in the Matrix would barely be noticed.
 
How exactly would Warsaw align itself to France in a post-Napoleonic era where the conservative monarchies of Europe dictate things?

My idea is that Bourbon want to have an ally in the East, but that's out of the question. Let's say instead of France, GB puts alot of pressure on Alexander I with letting Poland go and forms an alliance afterwards.
 
My idea is that Bourbon want to have an ally in the East, but that's out of the question. Let's say instead of France, GB puts alot of pressure on Alexander I with letting Poland go and forms an alliance afterwards.

Don't see it. What does Britain gain from allying with a too small destined to fail Polish state, besides antagonizing the neighbouring powers and getting it embroiled in east European politics. This was the dawn of Britain's splendid isolation from Europe.
 
My idea is that Bourbon want to have an ally in the East, but that's out of the question. Let's say instead of France, GB puts alot of pressure on Alexander I with letting Poland go and forms an alliance afterwards.

Indeed it is - so let's clear up a few things about how post-Napoleonic European politics worked. For a few decades, until around the Crimean war, the conservative old order of Europe was closely working together to ensure no more revolutionary upheavals happen, even sacrificing their ambitions against each other. France, in particular, was under serious scrutiny - their only option at that point was to lie low and convince Europe that the Bourbon Restoration had things under control. This is why nobody wanted to support a Poland (where revolutionary sentiment was second only to France in perceived threat level, what with Poniatowski's attempts) and were content to let the Russians have it as part of their sphere of influence.
 

Redhand

Banned
Warsaw's existence was an insult to Russia and Prussia. They were arguably Napoleons most fervent ally and had proven to be powerful in its own right. I can't see Metternich or anyone who had an interest in the old order allowing Warsaw to survive.
 
Um, that's almost what happened. Congress Poland was a little smaller and not quite in the same place, but it was equally unviable. Russia would pull it into its orbit and probably annex it later all the same. How exactly would Warsaw align itself to France in a post-Napoleonic era where the conservative monarchies of Europe dictate things?

WW1 is way too far to speculate about (including whether one will even happen in any recognizable form) with that POD. Although to be fair, I see so little difference here compared to OTL that the timeline could be joined with OTL a few decades after Napoleon's fall and the flaw in the Matrix would barely be noticed.

Congress Poland was satellite state of Russia, not independent one. Russian troops stationed there, Russian governor was in Warsaw. That's why November uprising started.

Independent Poland (in- more or less- DoW borders) would be good ally for... Russia. Of course it'd mean leaving some lands in independent Poland, but it'd also equal to not having to deal with insurgents. Most of old Commonwealth eastern lands would of course have to stay in Russia, but Poland acting as active ally against Prussia and Austria (with potential roughly equal to Prussia- both in economic terms and population) is changing balance of power. Especially if Russia wishes to gain access to Mediterranean through Balkans, it has to deal with GB and Prussia (Austria too most likely). And Poland have some lands to regain from Prussia...
 
Congress Poland was satellite state of Russia, not independent one. Russian troops stationed there, Russian governor was in Warsaw. That's why November uprising started.

Independent Poland (in- more or less- DoW borders) would be good ally for... Russia. Of course it'd mean leaving some lands in independent Poland, but it'd also equal to not having to deal with insurgents. Most of old Commonwealth eastern lands would of course have to stay in Russia, but Poland acting as active ally against Prussia and Austria (with potential roughly equal to Prussia- both in economic terms and population) is changing balance of power. Especially if Russia wishes to gain access to Mediterranean through Balkans, it has to deal with GB and Prussia (Austria too most likely). And Poland have some lands to regain from Prussia...

Nobody, wants an independent Poland in Eastern and Central Europe. The problem is the congress of poland is to weak to oppose Russia, Austria and Prussia. At best if the Prussians some how were able to withstand Napoleon, but still lose Warschau and Pozen. While Napoleon wasn't able to subdue Prussia effectively was able to force Austria with more concessions primarly Galicia and an independant Hungary should do it. After Napoleon is defeated Prussia is the strongest nation of the germanies. However without an Austrian empire to ally to counterbalance the Russian, they and maybe the Hungarians may try to use Poland as a buffer state. Nationalistic ideas aren't yet developt, so the Prussians will get the rest of Saxony as compensation.

While leaving a relatively strong buffer state of Poland.
 
Nobody, wants an independent Poland in Eastern and Central Europe. The problem is the congress of poland is to weak to oppose Russia, Austria and Prussia. At best if the Prussians some how were able to withstand Napoleon, but still lose Warschau and Pozen. While Napoleon wasn't able to subdue Prussia effectively was able to force Austria with more concessions primarly Galicia and an independant Hungary should do it. After Napoleon is defeated Prussia is the strongest nation of the germanies. However without an Austrian empire to ally to counterbalance the Russian, they and maybe the Hungarians may try to use Poland as a buffer state. Nationalistic ideas aren't yet developt, so the Prussians will get the rest of Saxony as compensation.

While leaving a relatively strong buffer state of Poland.

As I said- Congress Poland had similar potential to Prussian- at least after it's been dismantled by Napoleon. It's not supposed to oppose all three nations- even with borders from before 1772 it wouldn't be able to. BUT it's good partner for Russia or Austria (only Prussia must be opposed to Poland due to its interests in Pomerania and Posen), or even both- against Prussia.

Napoleon was perfectly able to subdue not only Prussia, but Austria as well. Only reason why he didn't was that Russian Tsar asked him not to. And even then, Prussia lost half of its territories. And Austria was saved because Hungarians refused independence (pretty strange considering how much they fought later on...).
 
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