What if Dubya picked McCain as his running mate? Does he still win? If so, does he win the same states? What effects would this have on 9/11 and the War on Terror?
You'd have to change McCain's fundamental point of view. He could have been VP had he wanted it. Bush met with him twice to try to get him to join the ticket. He declined. He wanted to be president, not vice. If he did accept, somehow, I think Bush does a little better in the popular vote, but I don't think McCain wins or loses Bush any states.