alternatehistory.com

So I just learned yesterday that an assassination attempt on George W. Bush (and presumably Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili) was very nearly successful; whilst giving a speech in Tbilisi a would-be assassin, Vladimir Arutyunian, pulled on the pin on a Soviet-era grenade and threw it at the podium that the two presidents were standing on. However, due to Arutyunian's unusually keen knot tying skills the handkerchief wrapped around the grenade kept the safety lever from lifting after the pin was pulled.

Now what if Arutyunian had not so tightly wound the handkerchief and the grenade did detonate, killing Bush and Saakashvili? What would that mean for American and Georgian politics, and more broadly for international affairs? I know literally nothing about this era as I was a child at the time, so if someone could enlighten me that'd be very handy.

I just find it very fascinating, because of the many attempted assassinations of US presidents (very dangerous job that) this is one that, to me, has the highest probability of actually succeeding, and it was only two presidents ago.
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