WI Doolittle Raid Not Launched

Could the Doolittle Raid not have been launched, if Admiral Nimitz knew there was a risk with this. I am already sinking that we may see an early Guadalcanal, a massive victory for US forces at Coral Sea with the addition of up to 2 carriers, something like a Midway happens at Wake Island, in the battle. I am already drafting a story up about this, just want to know if it can happen or not.
 

Hyperion

Banned
Could the Doolittle Raid not have been launched, if Admiral Nimitz knew there was a risk with this. I am already sinking that we may see an early Guadalcanal, a massive victory for US forces at Coral Sea with the addition of up to 2 carriers, something like a Midway happens at Wake Island, in the battle. I am already drafting a story up about this, just want to know if it can happen or not.

Best thing I can think of is to have one or more planes involved crash during a training exercise prior to the mission. This either causes a delay, or canceling of the mission.

Hornet goes to the Pacific as general reinforcements for the fleet, and joins with Enterprise and the other two carriers at Coral Sea. Coral Sea is a hard fight, but the US wins and sinks all three Japanese carriers, though say they loose the Lexington.

Due to the defeat at Coral Sea, Midway is still planned, but held back a two or three weeks to allow replacement ships to be sent to Rabaul to bolster the defenses in the area in case of a US attack.

A delay in the Midway mission gives time for the Yorktown to recieve of a more thorough, if still rushed repair at Pearl Harbor, and allows time for the various squadrons to train and work out equipment problems in their aircraft.

The biggest part of the delay is that the USS Saratoga is able to return from Puget Sound and joins with the other three carriers. In addition, USS Wasp arrives near the end of June, along with more escorts and the battleship USS North Carolina.

Seeing the crusial battle that Midway will become, Nimitz also pulls the light carrier USS Long Island from the west coast. The USS Long Island can only carry a little over 20 aircraft and has poor defenses, but the additional aircraft will be needed.

Nimitz also determines that Japanese moves against Alaska are a diversion from the main battle and initial plans to send 5 cruisers and 12 destroyers to the region are scrapped, and these warships are used to provide additional screening vessels for the carriers.

An extra delay allows Nimitz to also provide token reinforcements to the Midway based squadrons. A handfull of older aircraft are replaced with newer aircraft, though not enough to make a serious difference overall.

Come late June or early July, the Japanese attack towards Alaska taking several unimportant islands and bombing the outpost at Dutch Harbor. No real damage is done to either side.

The US sends its fleet to Midway to stop the Japanese. On paper, the Japanese outnumber the US fleet. In actuality, the US has the advantage of a large number of land based aircraft from Midway, and unlike the Japanese, who have not concentrated their fleet, the US fleet has assembled every available ship into one large taskforce.

The only ships not present are several older battleships assigned to the west coast that do not have the speed necessary to operate with the carrier task force.
 
Yes, I was thinking of that, but with an increase of CAP, the Lexington takes heavy damage as well as the Yorktown, but all three Jap carriers are sunk. Midway is delayed, and the Saratoga, Long Island, Wasp, and South Carolina arrives, and Lexington, Saratoga, Enterprise, Yorktown, and the Hornet form the core of the Carrier task force to defend Midway. The Wasp, and Long Island form another task force and head to the Aleutians with few escorts. All four Japanese carriers are sunk, and the Lexington has to retire late in the battle due to flooding occuring in badly patched spots, and has to withdraw. It is then sunk by a submarine. The Yamato is then spotted, and every aircraft attacks the Yamato sinking the bastard, and then it goes on from there.
 
Would there even been a Midway? The reason the IJN attempted Midway was to strike at the American fleet and sink it so another Doolittle type raid on home islands could not be made. I would think that in place of a Midway type attack that at that stage of the war another attempt towards the South Pacific would be launched, a second Coral Sea?
 

Hyperion

Banned
Yes, I was thinking of that, but with an increase of CAP, the Lexington takes heavy damage as well as the Yorktown, but all three Jap carriers are sunk. Midway is delayed, and the Saratoga, Long Island, Wasp, and South Carolina arrives, and Lexington, Saratoga, Enterprise, Yorktown, and the Hornet form the core of the Carrier task force to defend Midway. The Wasp, and Long Island form another task force and head to the Aleutians with few escorts. All four Japanese carriers are sunk, and the Lexington has to retire late in the battle due to flooding occuring in badly patched spots, and has to withdraw. It is then sunk by a submarine. The Yamato is then spotted, and every aircraft attacks the Yamato sinking the bastard, and then it goes on from there.

Sending the Wasp off on its own is a terrible idea. Nimitz knows that Midway is the prime target. Take that away, and Aleutians don't matter in the long run, as they are a ticket on the road to nowhere.

As for sinking the Yamato, lord no. The Yamato was over 300 miles behind the Japanese carriers, and never came anywhere near the battle. If you do want to sink battleships, there where two battleships providing cover for the Japanese carriers, along with three cruisers.

Also, if you really want to sink battleships and have a go sinking another light carrier, admiral Kondo and the task force carrying the Japanese ground troops for the invasion have several battleships and a light carrier all their own, and they are far closer than the Yamato.

That would be another obvious reason to keep the Wasp with the fleet. Concentrate the firepower, and have plenty of firepower to take on other targets.
 
Due to the defeat at Coral Sea, Midway is still planned, but held back a two or three weeks to allow replacement ships to be sent to Rabaul to bolster the defenses in the area in case of a US attack.

Might a delay in the Midway attack give time for Halsey to recover and command the US defense? Halsey was very aggressive; he might have chased the retreating Japanese fleet right into Yamamoto's battleships. Wouldn't give the Japanese their victory, I think, though.
 
That would be another obvious reason to keep the Wasp with the fleet. Concentrate the firepower, and have plenty of firepower to take on other targets.

If the Battle of Midway does happen like has been postulated would Nimitz have pressed on after the Japanese carriers were defeated and try to sink the landing forces? He would not have had the severe losses in air crew/craft he had IOTL. Better to sink those troops now then have to dig them out of some atoll?
 

Hyperion

Banned
If the Battle of Midway does happen like has been postulated would Nimitz have pressed on after the Japanese carriers were defeated and try to sink the landing forces? He would not have had the severe losses in air crew/craft he had IOTL. Better to sink those troops now then have to dig them out of some atoll?

The landing force was only around 5,000 troops. Quite a few in OTL where slaughtered in early battles on Guadalcanal.

A bigger prize would be the two battleships escorting Nagumo's carriers, or to sink the light carrier Zuiho and the battleships Kondo had escorting the troopships.
 
Hyperion

Quite a bit of good and not-so-good in your analysis.

Best thing I can think of is to have one or more planes involved crash during a training exercise prior to the mission. This either causes a delay, or canceling of the mission.

Hornet goes to the Pacific as general reinforcements for the fleet, and joins with Enterprise and the other two carriers at Coral Sea. Coral Sea is a hard fight, but the US wins and sinks all three Japanese carriers, though say they lose the Lexington.

Lexington loss is OTL. But the Saratoga class, while well protected, had the flaw of their turbine engines making them easy to disable. Which is why the Saratoga spent the second half of the war essentially out of harm's way, like the Ranger (though not so much as the Ranger, as the Saratoga served with the British Indian Ocean Fleet).

With the Enterprise and Hornet at Coral Sea I can see the Zuikaku and Shokaku joining the Shoho on the ocean's bottom. The Zuikaku lost it's air wing and the Shokaku got it's flight deck creamed so add two more American air wings and...:)

Hyperion said:
Due to the defeat at Coral Sea, Midway is still planned, but held back a two or three weeks to allow replacement ships to be sent to Rabaul to bolster the defenses in the area in case of a US attack.

The only replacement ships available to the IJN at this time are light cruisers and destroyers.

Hyperion said:
A delay in the Midway mission gives time for the Yorktown to receive of a more thorough, if still rushed repair at Pearl Harbor, and allows time for the various squadrons to train and work out equipment problems in their aircraft.

The biggest part of the delay is that the USS Saratoga is able to return from Puget Sound and joins with the other three carriers. In addition, USS Wasp:confused: arrives near the end of June, along with more escorts and the battleship USS North Carolina.

The Wasp didn't even reach California until June 19th. The Midway attack would have to be pretty delayed for the Wasp to make it to Midway in time.

Hyperion said:
Seeing the crusial battle that Midway will become, Nimitz also pulls the light carrier USS Long Island from the west coast. The USS Long Island can only carry a little over 20 aircraft and has poor defenses, but the additional aircraft will be needed.

No. Bringing in the Long Island for combat is even more problematical than the Ranger. And it's not a light carrier (CVL). It's an escort carrier (CVE). A CVL has a larger aircraft complement, and more importantly, can keep up with the speed of the fleet. CVE's are for convoy duty or aircraft ferrying. HOWEVER, the Long Island could be vital playing a role ferrying fighters to Midway Island. One squadron at a time.

Hyperion said:
Nimitz also determines that Japanese moves against Alaska are a diversion from the main battle and initial plans to send 5 cruisers and 12 destroyers to the region are scrapped, and these warships are used to provide additional screening vessels for the carriers.

An extra delay allows Nimitz to also provide token reinforcements to the Midway based squadrons. A handfull of older aircraft are replaced with newer aircraft, though not enough to make a serious difference overall.

Come late June or early July, the Japanese attack towards Alaska taking several unimportant islands and bombing the outpost at Dutch Harbor. No real damage is done to either side.

The US sends its fleet to Midway to stop the Japanese. On paper, the Japanese outnumber the US fleet. In actuality, the US has the advantage of a large number of land based aircraft from Midway, and unlike the Japanese, who have not concentrated their fleet, the US fleet has assembled every available ship into one large taskforce.

IOTL, the US fleet was split into two task forces as well. Though here...?

Hyperion said:
The only ships not present are several older battleships assigned to the west coast that do not have the speed necessary to operate with the carrier task force.

True. Also, no escorts for the BBs. Their destroyer screens are all busy hunting U-Boats.

So, as I see it, the Long Island is ferrying all the fighters it can to Midway. Meanwhile, the Pacific fleet has the Saratoga, Enterprise, Hornet, and Yorktown waiting at Point Luck with the Wasp burning up it's boilers rushing across the Pacific to reach them. And they won't, unless Operation: MI is delayed for a full two months.
 
Last edited:
Nimitz actually sent TF 16 (Enterprise and Hornet) to SOPAC to back up Lexington and Yorktown as soon as they returned to Pearl from the Doolittle Raid. If the Japanese found themselves behind schedule to launch their Coral Sea operation-the planned amphib landing at Port Moresby-they would've faced four carriers to two full fleet carriers and a light carrier with only eighteen aircraft (9 Zeroes, 3 Claudes, and 6 Kates-Shoho could operate up to 30 planes). And the Japanese would've been very surprised at seeing four carriers to their two. Shokaku and Zuikaku would've been outnumbered, and VADM Takeo Takagi, the battle force commander, would have ordered a prompt withdrawal-as he did OTL after Shoho was sunk and Shokaku damaged. One thing that the Japanese would've had in their favor was that the torpedo squadrons would have had TBDs, and though seven torps helped send Shoho down, the OTL VT attack (VT-2 and VT-5) failed due to the wretched torpedoes. And both Japanese carriers had their air groups off and away on a strike when they were attacked, and thus were in better shape to take punishment.
 

Hyperion

Banned
If Enterprise and Hornet are at Coral Sea, would Lexington be lost at all?

This time around, instead of two carriers attacking two carriers, the Japanese have to split themselves between four carriers, meaning while Enterprise and Hornet are now in the line of fire, a number of aircraft that OTL would have tried to hit the Yorktown or Lexington will not be going after them.

Yorktown has the best chance of surviving, though I would think Lexington might survive the battle. Though after thinking about it, I'm guessing even if she did survive, she would probably need a trip to Puget Sound.

For sending planes to Midway, my understanding was that the island was packed with every aircraft Nimitz could spare OTL. Maybe get rid of the B-17s and trade them for a squadron or so of smaller aircraft. This might help to bring in Wildcats or Buffalos.

My understanding on Wasp is that she went to California, took onboard new aircraft, and then went to Pearl Harbor. How hard would it be for her aircraft to be transported to Pearl on the Long Island, and when she gets through the Panama Canal, she bypasses San Diego?

As for pulling the 5 cruisers and 12 destroyers from the Aleutians, one thing I remember reading was that Saratoga was actually repaired and ready to go before the battle, but Nimitz had trouble finding enough ships to act as an escort. These ships would be enough to give Saratoga a good escort, and strengthen the screen around the other three carriers.

Another thing to consider, of Fletcher has to abandon Yorktown, admiral Fitch onboard the Saratoga would likely take over the fleet as opposed to Spruance. Once Nagumo's carriers are sunk, how might Fitch handle things as far as attacking other Japanese targets now that they have no carriers to protect them.
 
Would there even been a Midway? The reason the IJN attempted Midway was to strike at the American fleet and sink it so another Doolittle type raid on home islands could not be made. I would think that in place of a Midway type attack that at that stage of the war another attempt towards the South Pacific would be launched, a second Coral Sea?

This, I think is an important point. In OTL the Doolittle Raid played a large role in determining the choice of Midway as the site of the IJN's decisive battle with the USN as well as Japan's future offensive operations. After all, the primary goal of Operation MI was not to take the island, but to eliminate the USN.

Without the Doolittle Raid, those proposing further operations in the South might win out over the forces that prevailed in OTL. Therefore, instead of trying to force the USN into a decisive battle over Midway like in TTL, the Japanese in TTL try to seek battle in the South West Pacific by invading Port Moresby. Perhaps in TTL we see all 6 Japanese fleet Carriers (+the smaller carriers) being assigned to support the Port Moresby invasion force and coming up against the 4 American carriers in a much larger Battle of the Coral Sea the result of which could go either way...
 

Hyperion

Banned
This, I think is an important point. In OTL the Doolittle Raid played a large role in determining the choice of Midway as the site of the IJN's decisive battle with the USN as well as Japan's future offensive operations. After all, the primary goal of Operation MI was not to take the island, but to eliminate the USN.

Without the Doolittle Raid, those proposing further operations in the South might win out over the forces that prevailed in OTL. Therefore, instead of trying to force the USN into a decisive battle over Midway like in TTL, the Japanese in TTL try to seek battle in the South West Pacific by invading Port Moresby. Perhaps in TTL we see all 6 Japanese fleet Carriers (+the smaller carriers) being assigned to support the Port Moresby invasion force and coming up against the 4 American carriers in a much larger Battle of the Coral Sea the result of which could go either way...

Never going to happen Fearless Leader.

The two fleet carriers assigned to Coral Sea where not even originally part of the task force until Wilson Brown attacked Japanese ships off New Guinea in late March of 1942, sinking four transports.

Plans for Port Moresby where delayed, replacement transports where brought in, and the carrier division was assigned.

By the time of the Doolittle Raid, the finished plan for Coral Sea was already set on the Japanese side. To say the other four Japanese carriers and change will majically appear at the last minute is pushing ASB.

A much more realistic viewpoint would be the Japanese getting massacred at Coral Sea, and Yamamoto and Nagumo trying to determine how to strike back.

Keep in mind also, Doolittle Raid was April 18. The Combined Fleet still hadn't returned from the Indian Ocean raid by that point. Getting all six carriers up and ready for two back to back missions would stretch their resources, and they would not have time to get replacement planes or pilots.

So no, definitely ASB.
 

Swordman

Banned
Wasn't one of the results of the Doolittle raid OTL the stationing of some hundreds of Japanese fighters on Japan proper? If no raid occurrs, then these fighters could be distrubuted elsewhere, pehaps making it difficult in some other area....

Mike Garrity
 

Hyperion

Banned
Wasn't one of the results of the Doolittle raid OTL the stationing of some hundreds of Japanese fighters on Japan proper? If no raid occurrs, then these fighters could be distrubuted elsewhere, pehaps making it difficult in some other area....

Mike Garrity

Some units where moved from my understanding.

However, none of this would have effected Coral Sea.

The most likely outcome is that the Japanese forces run into four US carriers.

The light carrier is sunk outright, and Halsey likely orders another round of airstrikes to knock out one or more of the cruisers protecting the light carrier.

Come time to locate the big Japanese carriers, the four US carriers will hit them harder, and with double the number of guns and Wildcat fighters, the Japanese airstrike will be chewed up beyond use.
 
Midway would be a target, as it is one of the farthest and most important islands of the chain. Also it was planned in January of 1942 for the attack. B-24 bombers from the island could hit Wake and return. Also, there would be more of an air cover, so Jap raids would be kaput.
 
No. Bringing in the Long Island for combat is even more problematical than the Ranger. And it's not a light carrier (CVL). It's an escort carrier (CVE). A CVL has a larger aircraft complement, and more importantly, can keep up with the speed of the fleet. CVE's are for convoy duty or aircraft ferrying. HOWEVER, the Long Island could be vital playing a role ferrying fighters to Midway Island. One squadron at a time.

QFT.
Long Island is even too slow to keep up with the Standards or any other of the older battleships (and operate aircraft whilst at it).

One tidbit though; when ferrying aircraft, any carrier can carry a lot more aircraft if they don't have to be able to take off.
In 1944 the Long Island was capable of carrying 40+ F6F's, SBD's etc on her deck alone as you can see below.

Cve1a.jpg


If they have to take off and fly the last 200ish miles a la Wasp ferrying aircraft in the Med, then you're stuck with max 21 at a time with a ship the size of Long Island, maybe even less if the pilots aren't trained to operate from carriers.
 
Thanks for the help guys about this! Here's the prologue:

The Doolittle Raid was a planned attack on Japan to be led by Jimmy Doolittle. It was canceled after the two B-25's that attempted to fly off the Hornet crashed, damaging the carrier, and killing Jimmy Doolittle. The Hornet took damage to her bow, and required three weeks of repair, to fix her bow. 24 of the groups B-25B bombers, were formed to create the 9th BS, known as "Doolittle Raiders" after the person who organized the planned raid. The 9th BS, were loaded on the USS Hornet for transfer to the Pacific at Midway, and the Hornet arrived at the Canal on March 8th, with it arriving at Pearl on the 24th, where it would refuel, before delivering the 24 B-25B's at Midway Island.

The USS Enterprise on March 4th launched the Marcus Island Raid, with a loss of a single SBD to AA fire. The crew were taken prisoner, but the pilot Hilton, and gunner Leaming survived the war. On March 10th, the Enterprise arrived at Pearl for refueling and minor repairs. For a month and a half, the Enterprise relaxed, while codebreakers uncovered the Japanese code, and admirals planned an attack. The USS Enterprise, would be remembered for it's role as you read.

The 9th BS, on April 1st were placed on Midway Island, and most people commonly thought it was a joke. The 24 B-25B bombers would play a crucial role in the upcoming future. The USS Hornet launched another 36 F4F fighters, holding it's maximum amount of aircraft under escort. After deploying the 60 aircraft, she turned back to Pearl, where it's next and possibly last mission would take place.

After the code of which Port Moresby would be attacked by Japanese forces, Admiral Nimitz, coordinated an assault to launch his carrier forces to intercept the Japanese carriers. The USS Hornet, and USS Enterprise in Task Force 16 were accompianed by the cruisers Salt Lake City, Northampton, and Vincennes, and the destroyers Fanning, Benham, Ellet, Gwin, Meredith, Grayson, and Monssen. Two oilers the Cimarron and Sabine were also in Task Force 16. The USS Lexington was in Task Force 11, with two cruisers and five destroyers escorting her under command of Rear Admiral Audrey Fitch. The USS Yorktown was in Task Force 17, with an escort of three cruisers, six destroyers, and two oilers under command of Rear Admiral Frank Fletcher. Task Force 44 with the three cruisers of the HMAS Australia, the HMAS Hobart, and the USS Chicago, with three destroyers escorting them. It was under command of Australian Rear Admiral John Crace. Vice Admiral William Halsey, was in command of Task Force 16, and the total commander of the US Forces for the battle. What resulted was the first battle of the carriers, and a battle that would decide the turning point of the war.



Alright here are the US Forces:
4 Fleet Carriers
11 Cruisers
21 Destroyers
4 Oilers
Approximately 360 Aircraft (All the carriers are fully loaded with all available aircraft)

I assume this is good?
 
Top