WI: Doolittle raid goes horribly wrong.

What would happen to the Chinese?
Because OTL, ~250000 were killed by the Japanese in retaliation for aiding the Americans...

The usual conclusion is if no US pilots were rescued by the Chinese resistance then there would have been not 'anti bandit' campaign. I'd want to research Japanese operations that year before deciding one way or another. At the rate the Japanese were 'suppressing bandits' they might have run a similar campaign anyway, just in different provinces.
 
To digress, I wonder why the raid did not concentrate its small bomb weight on naval targets in the harbors. Perhaps its hindsight, but its fairly clear hitting ships at the docks has the highest payoff when you air groups are limited in size.

Primarily because the raid was meant to be more psychological in impact than strictly military. As Doolittle said afterward, "An attack on the Japanese homeland would cause confusion in the minds of the Japanese people and sow doubt about the reliability of their leaders."

Most of the bombers (10) were targeted on Tokyo for a reason. Maximum morale impact on the Japanese.

And it was just as well since - even though the USAAF did not fully appreciate this yet - the success rate from aerial bombing by medium or heavy bombers on ships was pretty dismal. The hit on Ryuho was rather fluky as it was. Better to concentrate on big targets, and make sure they are ones the Japanese civilians will notice. You only have 16 bombers, not six hundred.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
True enough, but that also suggests the South Pacific plays

In practical terms the IJN had none since their carrier aircrews were badly attritioned & unavailable as they were starting training new air crews. The IJN could have put two carriers to combat on a emergency basis only.

Might have been a good time for the Brits to raid Japan had they not been busy elsewhere.

True, but that also suggests the South Pacific plays out as it did historically.

Best,
 
bad luck?

If they deployed subs AFTER the strike, with one being in the right place to deploy, someone might get lucky. Luck happens, and the Japanese sure would try, if I-Whoever was in the right place to try hunting.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
How does an I-boat based in Japan and capable of

If they deployed subs AFTER the strike, with one being in the right place to deploy, someone might get lucky. Luck happens, and the Japanese sure would try, if I-Whoever was in the right place to try hunting.

How does an I-boat based in Japan and capable of ~20 knots surfaced get in front of a USN task force that on the day of the raid is 750 miles east of Japan and capable on ~30 knots?

One of these things is not like the other.;)

Best,
 
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