WI: Don Carlos Born A Girl

As the title says: Don Carlos, only son of Felipe II and his first wife (and double first cousin), Maria Manuela is born a girl. Maria Manuela still dies in childbirth, the child is perhaps slightly healthier (but only just) than Carlos was OTL. Does Felipe remarry as soon as he's out of mourning (who?) and how does this affect the Caroline (Spanish) Habsburgs?
 
Propably he would marry his (and his first wife's) half-aunt and first cousin, Mary of Portugal. Such marriage was considered IOTL but never happened due to Edward VI's death-option of English marriage was more profitable for Philip. So there is another question-whom would Mary Tudor marry ITTL?
 
Propably he would marry his (and his first wife's) half-aunt and first cousin, Mary of Portugal. Such marriage was considered IOTL but never happened due to Edward VI's death-option of English marriage was more profitable for Philip. So there is another question-whom would Mary Tudor marry ITTL?

I realize the Catholic church was basically in the Spanish pocket at that time, but would there not be some protest at such a flouting of canon law - dispensations for aunt-nephew marriages don't seem to be thick on the ground - still less that there are children issuing from said marriage.

Might Marguerite de Valois OTL duchess of Savoy also be considered? I know she was contemplated alongside Jeanne III d'Albret for Felipe at an earlier point to seal a Habsburg-French treaty, but it never came off?
 
There is another question-whom would Philip's daughter marry? She will be heir to the throne until her brothers are born. Say they are born late (during 1570/80s like last of OTL Philip's kids). In such situation she would marry another Habsburg to keep crown in the family-either one of Maximilian II's sons (who will be few years younger than her) or Charles of Styria (5 years older). If things in Portugal went similar to OTL she could take Portuguese throne (as she will have better rights for crown of Portugal than her father). And then late son of Philip is born and we have separate Portuguese Habsburg line as result...
 
There is another question-whom would Philip's daughter marry? She will be heir to the throne until her brothers are born. Say they are born late (during 1570/80s like last of OTL Philip's kids). In such situation she would marry another Habsburg to keep crown in the family-either one of Maximilian II's sons (who will be few years younger than her) or Charles of Styria (5 years older). If things in Portugal went similar to OTL she could take Portuguese throne (as she will have better rights for crown of Portugal than her father). And then late son of Philip is born and we have separate Portuguese Habsburg line as result...

Would she? Spain, I can't dispute with you, but AFAIR there was a proviso in Felipe II/Maria Manuela's marriage contract that stipulated that she wouldn't pass her rights to any children she might have. So might we see a sort of Iberian civil war if that is the case? Or would Felipe try to marry her to Duarte of Guimaraes/Crown Prince Joao Manuel?
 
If the political context of the 1550' is not butterflied away, a reconciliation with France is on the table, marriage included. IOTL the match Philip II-Elisabeth was the only one possible but if there is a spanish infanta, why not a marriage between alt-Carlos (Carla ?) and Charles (IX) ? Charles is only the second son, and Philip II might have other children from a latter marriage, so the probability of Franco-Spanish union must seem distant at the time. Agreed, given the international tensions and the absence of another heir at the time, Philip II might want to go to an Austrian Habsburg instead.
 
Would she? Spain, I can't dispute with you, but AFAIR there was a proviso in Felipe II/Maria Manuela's marriage contract that stipulated that she wouldn't pass her rights to any children she might have. So might we see a sort of Iberian civil war if that is the case? Or would Felipe try to marry her to Duarte of Guimaraes/Crown Prince Joao Manuel?
IOTL Philip took Portuguese throne despite fact that Catherine of Braganza had better rights, there could be civil war ITTL and pro-Habsburg fraction could win. Perspective of Iberian Union wasn't that unpopular in Portugal at the time.
 
IOTL Philip took Portuguese throne despite fact that Catherine of Braganza had better rights, there could be civil war ITTL and pro-Habsburg fraction could win. Perspective of Iberian Union wasn't that unpopular in Portugal at the time.

The duchess of Bragança's "better" rights had a lot to do with hindsight rather than with what was on the ground.

The succession order of Portugal in 1575 ran:

D. SEBASTIÃO, King of Portugal
Maria Manuela, Princess of the Asturias (dead)
D. Carlos, Prince of the Asturias
Luiz duque de Beja (dead)
Antonio, prior of Crato (illegitimate)
Fernando, duque de Guarda (dead)
Henrique, Cardinal Archbishop of Lisbon
Duarte, duque de Guimaraes (dead)
Duarte II, duque de Guimaraes
Maria, duchess of Parma
Her children
Catarina, duchess of Bragança
Her children
Isabel, Holy Roman Empress (dead)
Felipe II, King of Spain
Maria, Holy Roman Empress
Her children
Juana, Crown Princess of Portugal
D. SEBASTIÃO, King of Portugal
Beatrice, duchess of Savoy (dead)
Her children
 
Ok so let's say this daughter, who I'm going to call Maria Catalina, is about as physically healthy as Carlos was, but maybe a bit more stable emotionally. Philip marries his dead bride's aunt, Maria of Portugal, which then lasts until 1577. Let's say this marriage gives him 3 surviving children, 2 further daughters and a son. If a son is born before 1550, I could see our Maria Catalina being betrothed to a French Prince. If not, then that might be a bit more iffy. However, let's have the son be born around 1549. However, on interesting thing is if this new Prince of Asturias is anything like Don Carlos was OTL. If so, and if this son does not survive his father, I could definitely see Philip II of Spain remarrying, if just for companionship in his old age. And so:

Philip II of Spain (b.1527: d.1598) m. Maria Manuela of Portugal (b.1527: d.1545) (a), Maria of Portugal (b.1519: d.1577), Maximiliana Maria of Bavaria (b.1552: d.1614) (a)

1a) Maria Catalina von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1545: d.1614) m. Charles IX of France (b.1550: d.1574) (a), Sebastian I of Portugal (b.1554: d.1578)

1a) Miscarriage (c.1571)

2a) Marguerite de Valois (b.1573: d.1578)

3b) Maria Joanna of Portugal (b.1576: d.1577)
2b) Joanna von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1547: d.1548)

3b) Carlos von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1549: d.1576) m. Elisabeth von Hapsburg, Archduchess of Austria (b.1554: d.1592) (a)

1a) Maria I of Spain (b.1572: d.1601) m. Diego I of Spain (b.1579: d.1634) (a)

1a) Stillborn Son (c.1595)

2a) Stillborn Son (c.1597)

3a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1599)​

2a) Stillborn Son (c.1575)​

4b) Isabella Eugenia von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1552) m. Ernest von Hapsburg, Archduke of Austria (b.1553: d.1595) (a)

1a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1570)​

5b) Miscarriage (c.1553)

6b) Catherine Michelle von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1555: d.1560)

7b) Stillborn Son (c.1558)

8b) Margaret von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1560: d.1621) m. Charles Emmanuel I, Duke of Savoy (b.1562: d.1630) (a)

1a) Philip Emmanuel of Savoy (b.1580: d.1581)

2a) Charles Francis I, Duke of Savoy (b.1583)

3a) Isabella of Savoy (b.1585: d.1629) m. Diego I of Spain (b.1579: d.1634) (a)

1a) Juan III of Spain (b.1603)

2a) Maximiliana Maria von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1605)

3a) Stillborn Son (c.1608)

4a) Isabella Catalina von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1610)

5a) Philip von Hapsburg, Infante of Spain (b.1612: d.1615)

6a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1615)

7a) Carlos von Hapsburg, Infante of Spain (b.1618: d.1632)​

4a) Stillborn Son (c.1586)

5a) Victor Philibert of Savoy, Prince of Carignano (b.1589)

6a) Maria Giovanna of Savoy (b.1593)

7a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1595)

8a) Stillborn Son (c.1596)

9a) Christina Apollonia of Savoy (b.1599)​

9b) Miscarriage (c.1563)

10c) Diego I of Spain (b.1579: d.1634) m. Maria I of Spain (b.1572: d.1601) (a), Isabella of Savoy (b.1585: d.1629) (b)

1a) Stillborn Son (c.1595)

2a) Stillborn Son (c.1597)

3a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1599)

4b) Juan III of Spain (b.1603)

5b) Maximiliana Maria von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1605)

6b) Stillborn Son (c.1608)

7b) Isabella Catalina von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1610)

8b) Philip von Hapsburg, Infante of Spain (b.1612: d.1615)

9b) Stillborn Daughter (c.1615)

10b) Carlos von Hapsburg, Infante of Spain (b.1618: d.1632)​
 
Ok so I thought if I'm gonna do a family tree, I should made the justifications for some of the choices, so I'm gonna do just that. So here's some justifications!

Philip II of Spain (b.1527: d.1598) m. Maria Manuela of Portugal (b.1527: d.1545) (a), Maria of Portugal (b.1519: d.1577), Maximiliana Maria of Bavaria (b.1552: d.1614) (a)

1a) Maria Catalina von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1545: d.1614) m. Charles IX of France (b.1550: d.1574) (a), Sebastian I of Portugal (b.1554: d.1578) (b)

1a) Miscarriage (c.1571)

2a) Marguerite de Valois (b.1573: d.1578)

3b) Maria Joanna of Portugal (b.1576: d.1577)​
2b) Joanna von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1547: d.1548)

3b) Carlos von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1549: d.1576) m. Elisabeth von Hapsburg, Archduchess of Austria (b.1554: d.1592) (a)

1a) Maria I of Spain (b.1572: d.1601) m. Diego I of Spain (b.1579: d.1634) (a)

1a) Stillborn Son (c.1595)

2a) Stillborn Son (c.1597)

3a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1599)​

2a) Stillborn Son (c.1575)
4b) Isabella Eugenia von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1552) m. Ernest von Hapsburg, Archduke of Austria (b.1553: d.1595) (a)

5b) Miscarriage (c.1553)

6b) Catherine Michelle von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1555: d.1560)

7b) Stillborn Son (c.1558)

8b) Margaret von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1560: d.1621) m. Charles Emmanuel I, Duke of Savoy (b.1562: d.1630) (a)

1a) Philip Emmanuel of Savoy (b.1580: d.1581)

2a) Charles Francis I, Duke of Savoy (b.1583)

3a) Isabella of Savoy (b.1585: d.1629) m. Diego I of Spain (b.1579: d.1634) (a)

1a) Juan III of Spain (b.1603)

2a) Maximiliana Maria von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1605)

3a) Stillborn Son (c.1608)

4a) Isabella Catalina von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1610)

5a) Philip von Hapsburg, Infante of Spain (b.1612: d.1615)

6a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1615)

7a) Carlos von Hapsburg, Infante of Spain (b.1618: d.1632)​

4a) Stillborn Son (c.1586)

5a) Victor Philibert of Savoy, Prince of Carignano (b.1589)

6a) Maria Giovanna of Savoy (b.1593)

7a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1595)

8a) Stillborn Son (c.1596)

9a) Christina Apollonia of Savoy (b.1599)​
9b) Miscarriage (c.1563)

10c) Diego I of Spain (b.1579: d.1634) m. Maria I of Spain (b.1572: d.1601) (a), Isabella of Savoy (b.1585: d.1629) (b)
1a) Stillborn Son (c.1595)

2a) Stillborn Son (c.1597)

3a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1599)

4b) Juan III of Spain (b.1603)

5b) Maximiliana Maria von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1605)

6b) Stillborn Son (c.1608)

7b) Isabella Catalina von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1610)

8b) Philip von Hapsburg, Infante of Spain (b.1612: d.1615)

9b) Stillborn Daughter (c.1615)

10b) Carlos von Hapsburg, Infante of Spain (b.1618: d.1632)
Philip II of Spain/Maria of Portugal: Basically, it was put forward OTL, and without a male heir I could see Charles V, Holy Roman Emperor pushing much harder for the match. With this, I could see more children being born, as she was quite healthy OTL, although I still don't see many surviving past childhood. The 3 I gave this couple is pushing it, but it also isn't impossible.

Philip II of Spain/Maximiliana Maria of Bavaria: A tougher sell, but she's the daughter of an Austrian/Hapsburg Archduchess, grandniece of the Holy Roman Emperor, granddaughter of the Hungary and Bohemia (and future Holy Roman Emperor and a cousin, so it could work. However, she never married OTL, so the reason why has to be addressed. I couldn't find much on her, just a portrait of a woman who looked somewhat sickly, which might explain why she never married. So I made an executive decision to have the marriage go through, but have only one child conceived, in the form of King Diego.

Maria Catalina von Hapsburg/Charles IX of France: With the birth of a son around 1549/1550, I thought this match would make the most sense for Maria Catalina. She's a tad too old for Rudolf, and thus might have made a good French marriage instead. I imagined it took place around 1565/1570, when the King was old enough and actually king. The lack of surviving children was mostly based off his marriage OTL and the fact she's the daughter of a first cousin marriage. Not a great genetic example.

Maria Catalina von Hapsburg/Sebastian I of Portugal: This is one I couldn't decide on. On one hand Sebastian did want a Spanish match OTL with Isabella Clara, but on the other hand she's a woman in her 30's with a pretty bad track record in terms of childbearing, so that might not be attractive in a bride. However, Sebastian wasn't big on marrying either way, and he reportedly only considered Margaret of Valois to "save her" from a Navarrese match that would have allowed her to be around Protestants, which he thought was a fate worse than death. Thus, all we would have to do is have her be rumoured to be marrying Henry III of Navarre and then Sebastian will be interested.

Carlos von Hapsburg/Elisabeth von Hapsburg: A pretty easy explanation here, it's two Hapsburgs marrying. Elisabeth OTL married Charles IX of France, so I basically just gave her to the next available young Catholic royal. She's pretty, refined and a good temperament, but also may have fertility problems. She only conceived once OTL, but then again didn't really have much time to get pregnant a second time. But, again, it's two Hapsburgs marrying, so I just sort of decided that one surviving child over their marriage would work.

Isabella Eugenia von Hapsburg/Ernest von Hapsburg: Basically, I took this as a similar situation to Isabella Clara's situation OTL with Rudolf II, Holy Roman Emperor. Everyone expects the match, but eventually it is obvious there won't be a marriage and Philip marries his daughter to the next available Archduke, which results in no children.

Margaret von Hapsburg/Charles Emmanuel I, Duke of Savoy: Basically the same as Catherine Michelle and Charles Emmanuel OTL, but with a different Spaniard.

Diego I of Spain/Maria I of Spain: Basically, this is the ultimate Hapsburg match, but one that will not end with children. Maria I of Spain is heiress regardless, but Diego is the next available male heir. Thus, he marries his niece. It goes as badly as you'd expect, and he outlives her by quite a bit, having not given birth.

Diego I of Spain/Isabella of Savoy: Basically a uncle/niece match that end better because the niece's father wasn't also a first cousin to the new husband. I also was a bit kinder here than I might have been in terms of children surviving, but it could happen.
 
Some Habsburg first cousin or avunculate marriages IOTL ended with quite large bunch of surviving children (Maximilian II and Maria of Spain, Charles of Styria and Maria Anna of Bavaria). Even Philip III and Margaret of Austria, who were bot born from uncle-niece marriages had 5 kids surviving to adulthood.
 
Some Habsburg first cousin or avunculate marriages IOTL ended with quite large bunch of surviving children (Maximilian II and Maria of Spain, Charles of Styria and Maria Anna of Bavaria). Even Philip III and Margaret of Austria, who were bot born from uncle-niece marriages had 5 kids surviving to adulthood.

That is true, which is why i didn't feel too bad about some of these matches ending with a bunch of surviving children. However, almost as many did not and I had to take that into account. :)
 
I like it, although, Maximiliana was considered as a possible match for D. Sebastiao, as well as for Janos II Sigismund Zapolya, OTL (I could see Sebastiao pulling the same stunt with Maximiliana as he did with Margot).

I wonder if, instead of taking a double first cousin with a bad track record to wife, D. Sebastiao marries Maximiliana instead, while Felipe engineers Maria Catalina's match to Duarte, duque of Guimaraes? As I showed in the line of succession to the Portuguese throne earlier, she's higher up than he is, but if Sebastiao dies with no kids (in spite of being married, maybe he or his wife are sickly or they're just a bad match), then the next heir is Maria Catalina, duquessa de Guimaraes and her husband (who is closest related to her with Fernando and Isabel) and kids.
 
I like it, although, Maximiliana was considered as a possible match for D. Sebastiao, as well as for Janos II Sigismund Zapolya, OTL (I could see Sebastiao pulling the same stunt with Maximiliana as he did with Margot).

I wonder if, instead of taking a double first cousin with a bad track record to wife, D. Sebastiao marries Maximiliana instead, while Felipe engineers Maria Catalina's match to Duarte, duque of Guimaraes? As I showed in the line of succession to the Portuguese throne earlier, she's higher up than he is, but if Sebastiao dies with no kids (in spite of being married, maybe he or his wife are sickly or they're just a bad match), then the next heir is Maria Catalina, duquessa de Guimaraes and her husband (who is closest related to her with Fernando and Isabel) and kids.

I like this idea too. Maybe Maximiliana Maria only marries Felipe II de Spain around 1580, after being strung along by Sebastiao I de Portugal until his death. Felipe here will want some sort of male heir, especially if Carlo v.2 dies without a male heir as I had it. All it would do is make the birth of Diego later. The match with Duarte might happen if Maria Catalina and him meet. Felipe was a bit of a soft touch with his kids when he wanted to be, so maybe after a failed French match he lets her marry a man she loves who is suitably royal and Catholic. Particularly if he lives longer, thus has enough time to make babies with his bride.

Philip II of Spain (b.1527: d.1598) m. Maria Manuela of Portugal (b.1527: d.1545) (a), Maria of Portugal (b.1519: d.1577), Maximiliana Maria of Bavaria (b.1552: d.1614) (a)

1a) Maria Catalina von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1545: d.1614) m. Charles IX of France (b.1550: d.1574) (a), Duarte II of Portugal (b.1541: d.1585) (b)

1a) Miscarriage (c.1571)

2a) Marguerite de Valois (b.1573: d.1578)

3b) Juan of Guimarães (b.1577: d.1582)

4b) Isabella of Portugal (b.1580: d.1580)

5b) Manuel II of Portugal (b.1581)

6b) Stillborn Son (c.1583)

7b) Duarte, Duke of Beja (b.1584)

8b) Beatriz of Portugal (b.1586)
2b) Joanna von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1547: d.1548)

3b) Carlos von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1549: d.1576) m. Elisabeth von Hapsburg, Archduchess of Austria (b.1554: d.1592) (a)

1a) Maria I of Spain (b.1572: d.1601) m. Albert VII, Archduke of Austria (b.1559: d.1621) (a)

1a) Stillborn Son (c.1593)

2a) Stillborn Son (c.1596)


3a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1600)
2a) Stillborn Son (c.1575)
4b) Isabella Eugenia von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1552) m. Ernest von Hapsburg, Archduke of Austria (b.1553: d.1595) (a)

5b) Miscarriage (c.1553)

6b) Catherine Michelle von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1555: d.1560)

7b) Stillborn Son (c.1558)

8b) Margaret von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1560: d.1621) m. Charles Emmanuel I, Duke of Savoy (b.1562: d.1630) (a)

1a) Philip Emmanuel of Savoy (b.1580: d.1581)

2a) Charles Francis I, Duke of Savoy (b.1583)

3a) Isabella of Savoy (b.1585: d.1629) m. Diego I of Spain (b.1579: d.1634) (a)

1a) Juan III of Spain (b.1603)

2a) Maximiliana Maria von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1605)

3a) Stillborn Son (c.1608)

4a) Isabella Catalina von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1610)

5a) Philip von Hapsburg, Infante of Spain (b.1612: d.1615)

6a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1615)

7a) Carlos von Hapsburg, Infante of Spain (b.1618: d.1632)
4a) Stillborn Son (c.1586)

5a) Victor Philibert of Savoy, Prince of Carignano (b.1589)

6a) Maria Giovanna of Savoy (b.1593)

7a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1595)

8a) Stillborn Son (c.1596)

9a) Christina Apollonia of Savoy (b.1599)
9b) Miscarriage (c.1563)

10c) Diego I of Spain (b.1581: d.1634) m. Isabella of Savoy (b.1585: d.1629) (a)

1a) Juan III of Spain (b.1603)

2a) Maximiliana Maria von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1605)

3a) Stillborn Son (c.1608)

4a) Isabella Catalina von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1610)

5a) Philip von Hapsburg, Infante of Spain (b.1612: d.1615)

6a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1615)

7a) Carlos von Hapsburg, Infante of Spain (b.1618: d.1632)​
 
Duarte reportedly committed suicide - basically due to Sebastiao's cold-shouldering treatment of him, so I maybe with Duarte being Sebastiao's next heir-in-waiting's husband, means that he can't necessarily get away with it.
 
Duarte reportedly committed suicide - basically due to Sebastiao's cold-shouldering treatment of him, so I maybe with Duarte being Sebastiao's next heir-in-waiting's husband, means that he can't necessarily get away with it.

Or if he does still get cold shouldered, maybe Duarte is more bolstered by his wife.
 
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