WI: Domestic Terrorist Attacks in the United States Occur in 2003 Instead of 2001?

What if domestic terrorist attacks in the United States took place sometime in 2003 rather than OTL's 2001? How would the Midterm Elections of 2002 be affected without a domestic terrorist attack in 2001? What effect would a domestic terrorist attack in 2003 have on the United States Presidential Election of 2004? Would the United States invade Iraq in 2005?
 
The original 9/11 happened a few months into Bush's presidency. It shaped it completely. It's very hard to say what it would've turned out to be without that defining moment. Probably middling. The big question is, would he already have tried to get people interested in invading Iraq before the attack? It was always his plan to go for Iraq, but maybe he used up his all his cards already. It could look cravenly opportunistic to revive an (at that point) old obsession that the public already rejected before.

The 2004 election will go to Bush a lot more easily this time. The nation is still on 'rally around the flag' mode.
 
@Kitiem3000 probably knows better than I do, but let me throw this perspective out there anyways. In my view, a 9/11-akin terrorist attack in 03, instead of 01, hurts George W. more than it helps him. With it having happened so early in his Presidency, he's less to blame than the former administration would be. But if it happens so close to the end of his first term, I could see Democrats making the argument that Bush was weak and incompetent, unable to protect the US from terrorism. How effective that argument would be is subject to speculation, but I could see the Democrats potentially riding it to victory in 04. Although probably not with the same ticket as OTL, maybe Wesley Clark manages to nab the nomination?
 
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@Kitiem3000 probably knows better than I do, but let me throw this perspective out there anyways. In my view, a 9/11-akin terrorist attack in 03, instead of 01, hurts George W. more than it helps him. With it having happened so early in his Presidency, he's less to blame than the former administration would be. But if it happens so close to the end of his first term, I could see Democrats making the argument that Bush was weak and incompetent, unable to protect the US from terrorism. How effective that argument would be is subject to speculation, but I could see the Democrats potentially riding it to victory in 04. Although probably not with the same ticket as OTL, maybe Wesley Clark manages to nab the nomination?

Well with a 2003 terrorist attack, we probably see Dems take Congress in the midterms. Additionally, assuming Kerry wins in the Democratic nomination, he might be able to style himself as more combat ready than Bush.

I think ENRON would be huge but for September 11

Definitely. In OTL it was delayed due to 9/11 and the stock market being closed. Without 9/11, Enron collapses earlier and we don't have a War on Terror to fix the economic situation.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
@Kitiem3000 probably knows better than I do, but let me throw this perspective out there anyways. In my view, a 9/11-akin terrorist attack in 03, instead of 01, hurts George W. more than it helps him. With it having happened so early in his Presidency, he's less to blame than the former administration would be. But if it happens so close to the end of his first term, I could see Democrats making the argument that Bush was weak and incompetent, unable to protect the US from terrorism. How effective that argument would be is subject to speculation, but I could see the Democrats potentially riding it to victory in 04. Although probably not with the same ticket as OTL, maybe Wesley Clark manages to nab the nomination?
To be honest, I suspect that Democrats would still be too wimpish to make that argument against Bush in this TL.
 
Remember Democrats already had the Senate after Jeffords flipped, so they'd keep control there. I can see them holding on to Minnesota and Missouri, and flipping New Hampshire and maybe picking up Colorado too. The House should swing toward them as well since the gap was so slim, and Republicans wouldn't be able to use the rally around the flag effect from 9/11. Democrats would also be energized with the feeling that the 2000 Presidential election was "stolen" so they'd be more likely to vote. In the OTL that feeling was muted after Bush was seen as a strong leader in the aftermath of 9/11. Move that event until after the midterms and his popularity is probably underwater when Americans go to the polls.
 
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