WI Dollfuß isn't assasinated?

What if Dollfuß wasn't assassinated in 1934? I figure that he would strengthen further, his country's ties to Italy (Austrian independence was already guaranteed by Italy IOTL) and this alliance would eventually fight a war in the late 30's against Nazi Germany.
 
Not likely.

Germany still has designs on Austria, and Anschuluss is coming. Now Kurt Schussnigg was kind of a wimp when dealing with Germany--he somehow allowed the likes of Arthur-Seyss Inquart to meet with other Nazis in the government house. Engelbart Dollfuss is certainly a personal friend of Mussolini, but part of Hitler's diplomatic strategy is to befriend Mussolini. In the end, Mussolini would probably concede Austria in exchange for an alliance with Germany.

Now, the Anschluss itself is likely to go down differently. Dollfuss would probably have survived an attempt on his life, and its important to understand that the Nazis were subjecting Austria to a terrorist campaign. Schussnigg caved. Dollfuss might not--and he certainly might go farther to resist Germany. This might make the critical difference--Austria sends its troops to guard the German Border.

Austria's situation is hopeless in 1938, even with Dollfuss as Kanzler. Czechloslovkia might be smart enough to know whats happening, but the Czechs aren't going to be friendly with a nation with claims on its soil. Yugoslavia and Switzerland won't get involved, and Italy is probably disarmed with an alliance and if necessary an outright bribe. The UK and France, even if they hear of skirmishes on the border, are not going to react to this with a war.

Austria is hopelessly compromised internally as well. The Nazis had considerable support in Austria, and this massive 5th column at a minimum would thwart Austrian resistance to Germany's efforts. What would probably happen is that Dollfuss desperately attempts to get foreign support and is stood up by everyone. The Austrian Army, while not totally subverted by the Nazis, is unable to maintain its discipline in the face of the German attack. Small units outright defect to Germany, larger ones face muntinies and other treasonous behavior. No matter the disposition of the Austrian troops, their situation is a desperate one. Dollfuss would probably fight to bitter end, but the Austrian people would not, and Italy grants him one service--an escape route. Ultimate Destination: Argentina.
 
Not likely.

Germany still has designs on Austria, and Anschuluss is coming. Now Kurt Schussnigg was kind of a wimp when dealing with Germany--he somehow allowed the likes of Arthur-Seyss Inquart to meet with other Nazis in the government house. Engelbart Dollfuss is certainly a personal friend of Mussolini, but part of Hitler's diplomatic strategy is to befriend Mussolini. In the end, Mussolini would probably concede Austria in exchange for an alliance with Germany.

Now, the Anschluss itself is likely to go down differently. Dollfuss would probably have survived an attempt on his life, and its important to understand that the Nazis were subjecting Austria to a terrorist campaign. Schussnigg caved. Dollfuss might not--and he certainly might go farther to resist Germany. This might make the critical difference--Austria sends its troops to guard the German Border.

Austria's situation is hopeless in 1938, even with Dollfuss as Kanzler. Czechloslovkia might be smart enough to know whats happening, but the Czechs aren't going to be friendly with a nation with claims on its soil. Yugoslavia and Switzerland won't get involved, and Italy is probably disarmed with an alliance and if necessary an outright bribe. The UK and France, even if they hear of skirmishes on the border, are not going to react to this with a war.

Austria is hopelessly compromised internally as well. The Nazis had considerable support in Austria, and this massive 5th column at a minimum would thwart Austrian resistance to Germany's efforts. What would probably happen is that Dollfuss desperately attempts to get foreign support and is stood up by everyone. The Austrian Army, while not totally subverted by the Nazis, is unable to maintain its discipline in the face of the German attack. Small units outright defect to Germany, larger ones face muntinies and other treasonous behavior. No matter the disposition of the Austrian troops, their situation is a desperate one. Dollfuss would probably fight to bitter end, but the Austrian people would not, and Italy grants him one service--an escape route. Ultimate Destination: Argentina.

Wow... really? If this is all true then my TL would be slightly ASB because the scenario I mentioned in the OP is what I'm planning to happen.
 
Wow... really? If this is all true then my TL would be slightly ASB because the scenario I mentioned in the OP is what I'm planning to happen.

I don't think it would happen this way, but I'll tell you what. If you add in something to cause the Mussolini-Hitler Relationship to get fouled up you can probably pull it off. Dollfuss alive won't be sufficient, but if Hitler were to demand South Tyrol or something you could do it. It wouldn't be smart but your scenario basically needs a second small event as a push.
 
What if Dollfuß wasn't assassinated in 1934? I figure that he would strengthen further, his country's ties to Italy (Austrian independence was already guaranteed by Italy IOTL) and this alliance would eventually fight a war in the late 30's against Nazi Germany.

Hitler and Mussolini was at odds with each other over Austria at this time.
In 1933 after Hitler becomes chancellor of Germany, there is tension in Austria and the local Nazis are declared illegal. The next year there is tensions between the major Fascist nations, Germany and Italy, over Austria. Italy sees Austria as a buffer between her and Germany. That year an attempted Nazi coup in Austria has the Austrian chancellor murdered and the coup is suppressed by Austrian army and police. Angered at the events Mussolini mobilize troops, and moves them to the Austrian border. Hitler backs off and there is no war.
Then the situation is defused and the dictators end up as allies.

But had Dollfuss not been assassinated the nazi coup would still be foiled and the tension between Hitler and Mussolini not defused!
Dollfuss might enter the Italian scheme of having a Danube alliance with Hungary and Italy.
Britain and France also recognized the independence of Austria.

In TTL I would see continued tension between the Dictators over Austria - possibly a war.
Tried it out in this one: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=29606

And I don't see what Hitler would give Mussolini in 1934 to appease. Not claiming South Tirol?
Not invading Austria would be the only gift at this time. ;)
 

Vault-Scope

Banned
Germany vs. Austria & Italy



Then, Germany.

Even with the war starting in 1934, Italia would be doomed in the long therm.


In OTL, the Greek army was able not only to repell Italian offenisve from Albania but later advance into Albania territory. :D
 

Susano

Banned
Wow... really? If this is all true then my TL would be slightly ASB because the scenario I mentioned in the OP is what I'm planning to happen.

You have to realise that the Austrians overwhelmingly WANTED Anschluss. That Germany was then ruled by the Nazi Party was not even really a factor back then (and per capita Austria contributed more members to the NSDAP than the "Altreich" anyways...). The Austrians did not think itself a seperate nationality back then, but did see themselves as Germans out of Germanys borders.
 
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