WI: Dole won the 1988 New Hampshire Republican Primary

What if Dole defeated Bush in the 1988 New Hampshire primary? I read that Bush might have fired Atwater if this happened. What effects would firing Atwater have on Bush's campaign? Would Dole's victory hurt Bush's momentum?
 
Dole won Iowa. Bush finished third. If Dole wins NH, he will most likely win the nomination.
If Bush fires Atwater, this is a definite. Dole/Kemp in 88.
 
And Dole still loses in ‘92 thanks to a flagging economy and a poor matchup against Clinton. However, could the GOP pick anyone who could challenge Clinton in ‘96? Bush and Dole both failed, and Clinton was highly popular.
 
This is something I have always wondered about. The Dole of 1988 was not the seemingly aloof old man of 1996, and would likely beat Dukakis (albeit by a smaller margin).

How would Dole handle the extremely delicate foreign policy developments of the end of the Cold War? Perhaps Dole's ME foreign policy decisions might butterfly the Gulf War?

With Atwater gone, might we see less of the extremely divisive dog-whistle style campaigning amongst the GOP in the 1990s and onward? I suspect the factors that contributed to that were much more embedded and structural, however.
 
And Dole still loses in ‘92 thanks to a flagging economy and a poor matchup against Clinton. However, could the GOP pick anyone who could challenge Clinton in ‘96? Bush and Dole both failed, and Clinton was highly popular.
The question is does Dole raise taxes. I don't think there is a Perot in 92 if Dole is President. Clinton only got 43% of the vote.
 
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