Regarding Provence nothing changes : after the death of the father of Douce, Raymond V (VII) used the alliance made at Beaucaire with Raymond-Berenger III and the betrothal to poses himself as a protector of her rights.
He might even have married her mother, but this is less likely and kind of debated.
The thing is, there were conflicts (diplomatical more than military, at least at first) between Aragon and Toulouse about Provence, then more global.
I don't see any reason that this PoD could have changed that, and I would more likely thing it would make it certainly happen.
These wars aren't well known, and had period of more "diplomatical" war than military (while you had several expeditions plundering the county).
One of their result was the confirmation of 1125 treaty in 1776, and Alphonse of Aragon had to buy the claim of Raimond VI (VIII) on southern Provence.
At this date, Raimond focus was less on Provence than Bas-Langudeoc as the Aragonese diplomatical policy began to make counties as Melgueil turning on their influence.
War continued like this up to 1190's.
I really don't see how Douce's survival could have butterflied something here.
You'll say that maybe Alphonse of Aragon would have maybe more respected claim from Toulouse if Douce was still alive : I really doubt it.
Since 1166, ignoring her rights when she was still alive, he searched (and gained) the support of many provencal houses, as well the one of Pascal II (antipope), and took the title of Count of Provence.
Now, your question is a bit, allow me this word, vague and maybe a more precise idea would help to make some AH.