WI: Dogger Bank Sparks a War

Are there any major powers that would join on the Franco-Russian side of the conflict or is the alliance doomed from the beginning?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Are there any major powers that would join on the Franco-Russian side of the conflict or is the alliance doomed from the beginning?

I would vote for doomed. It is basically WW1, except Britain goes with Germany. Russia is almost completely shutoff from the world. France is largely isolated at least in the Atlantic, and has to worry about amphibious operations. The only advantage is that the Germans can't violate Belgium neutrality (maybe) so France has a much shorter line to defend. German troops and British shipping can even invade various colonies, so a German IndoChina is not impossible. I would go with Russia losses within a year of the UK entering the war. Russia losses all the possessions lost in OTL in Asia, plus the Russian Far East in its entirety, so the new Russian border is near Baku. The Polish speaking areas do not remain under Russian control along with the Baltic states and Finland. I would guess Germany would keep the Baltic States and Poland as directly ruled lands. Finland is independent. France loses some colonies, but the French-German border is not moved. France would prefer to lose parts of Africa or Asia over the sacred French soil, and Britain and Germany would love to have more colonies. A-H will get some Russian land, not sure how much.

The USA would not enter the war quickly, and even if it did, it would take about a year to field a sizeable force. Italy only joins if F-R is winning. Same for most small European countries. You might look at China, i am not familiar with Chinese positions at this time frame.
 

iddt3

Donor
I would vote for doomed. It is basically WW1, except Britain goes with Germany. Russia is almost completely shutoff from the world. France is largely isolated at least in the Atlantic, and has to worry about amphibious operations. The only advantage is that the Germans can't violate Belgium neutrality (maybe) so France has a much shorter line to defend. German troops and British shipping can even invade various colonies, so a German IndoChina is not impossible. I would go with Russia losses within a year of the UK entering the war. Russia losses all the possessions lost in OTL in Asia, plus the Russian Far East in its entirety, so the new Russian border is near Baku. The Polish speaking areas do not remain under Russian control along with the Baltic states and Finland. I would guess Germany would keep the Baltic States and Poland as directly ruled lands. Finland is independent. France loses some colonies, but the French-German border is not moved. France would prefer to lose parts of Africa or Asia over the sacred French soil, and Britain and Germany would love to have more colonies. A-H will get some Russian land, not sure how much.

The USA would not enter the war quickly, and even if it did, it would take about a year to field a sizable force. Italy only joins if F-R is winning. Same for most small European countries. You might look at China, i am not familiar with Chinese positions at this time frame.
No ones taking the Russian far east. How would they get the troops there? How would they hold it? Who would even want it? The Japanese? No Russia might get some border adjustments but no core Russian territory would be lost. France probably has some minor border adjustments assuming both they and Germany get involved. Italy is acctually in a better position now then they will be in 16 years, economically relative to the other powers, less time for French economic warfare to hurt the Italian economy.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
No ones taking the Russian far east. How would they get the troops there? How would they hold it? Who would even want it? The Japanese? No Russia might get some border adjustments but no core Russian territory would be lost. France probably has some minor border adjustments assuming both they and Germany get involved. Italy is acctually in a better position now then they will be in 16 years, economically relative to the other powers, less time for French economic warfare to hurt the Italian economy.

The Japanese would want it, and likely call it the Northern Resource area. Japanese troops are the most likely troops, and Japan is the logical staging area. Once Russia was facing a two front war, Asia would look less important too them. Russia would get border adjustments and depending on the definition of "core territory, none may be lost. Russia would likely lose no territory that is currently a part of European Russia.
 
It still astonishes me that the Russians were so jumpy/paranoid/batshit crazy that they thought that the Imperial Japanese Navy would be waiting to ambush them in the North bloody Sea. :confused:

As I understand it the UK was actually building torpedo boats for Japan at the time. It seems that the Russians got it into their heads that these were complete and at sea and were completely paranoid about the possibility. They not only fired on the British trawlers but they also fired on one of their own cruisers.
 

sharlin

Banned
And they were that paranoid since departing their Russian ports. There were reports of armed merchant ships in Norwegian waters, unknown airships following the fleet, you name it. So when they blundered across the Hull fishing fleet they panicked and opened fire.
 
I would vote for doomed. It is basically WW1, except Britain goes with Germany. Russia is almost completely shutoff from the world. France is largely isolated at least in the Atlantic, and has to worry about amphibious operations. The only advantage is that the Germans can't violate Belgium neutrality (maybe) so France has a much shorter line to defend. German troops and British shipping can even invade various colonies, so a German IndoChina is not impossible. I would go with Russia losses within a year of the UK entering the war. Russia losses all the possessions lost in OTL in Asia, plus the Russian Far East in its entirety, so the new Russian border is near Baku. The Polish speaking areas do not remain under Russian control along with the Baltic states and Finland. I would guess Germany would keep the Baltic States and Poland as directly ruled lands. Finland is independent. France loses some colonies, but the French-German border is not moved. France would prefer to lose parts of Africa or Asia over the sacred French soil, and Britain and Germany would love to have more colonies. A-H will get some Russian land, not sure how much.

The USA would not enter the war quickly, and even if it did, it would take about a year to field a sizeable force. Italy only joins if F-R is winning. Same for most small European countries. You might look at China, i am not familiar with Chinese positions at this time frame.

It seems less like a Great War and more like a European War then. It is still a major conflict, but nowhere near the extent of our own WWI.
 
And they were that paranoid since departing their Russian ports. There were reports of armed merchant ships in Norwegian waters, unknown airships following the fleet, you name it. So when they blundered across the Hull fishing fleet they panicked and opened fire.

And paranoia about torpedo boats wasn't exclusive to the Russians - in the Spanish-American War sailors mistook rocks, trains and the sea itself for torpedo boats and fired on them.
 
As I understand it the UK was actually building torpedo boats for Japan at the time. It seems that the Russians got it into their heads that these were complete and at sea and were completely paranoid about the possibility. They not only fired on the British trawlers but they also fired on one of their own cruisers.

My father was a lad on Lowestoft trawlers for a while between the wars and he told me that lots of the trawlers were involved in smuggling and there was no shortage of violence amongst the smugglers and also with the revenue, hence they frequently carried rifles and pistols. The story he was told goes that the Russians came across some unlit trawlers loading/unloading smuggled goods in the middle of the North Sea. The trawlermen thought they were either jumped by rivals or the revenue so they opened fire while they ran away. So the Russians were right. They were fired upon by torpedo boat sized vessels at night, but they were not Japanese. Unfortunately it was the Hull boats that paid the price but, so the story goes, it was Lowestoft boats that were smuggling and they denied being anywhere near the incident. However Dad was about 15 when he was told the story more that 20 years after the incident and repeated it to me more than 30 years after that, so some of the detail may be iffy but he was confident about remembering the general events.
 
I'm not sure France would join to begin with, so...

If Germany joins in the conflict, France is going to be obligated to honor its alliance. If it refuses to do so, it disgraces itself on the national state and puts itself in total diplomatic isolation.
 
France is under no obligation to embark on national disaster because their Russian ally suddenly went insane in the North Sea.
 
It is also questionable whether Germany would join the war, not because it wouldn't make sense, but because Wilhelm II would strongly oppose it. He could probably be prevailed upon, but the delay may mean that the whole affair remains an isolated conflict between Russia, Britain and Japan. France would almost certainly find a way to weasel out of its alliance in that case because joining the fight your worst enemy isn't in makes absolutely no sense.
 
France is under no obligation to embark on national disaster because their Russian ally suddenly went insane in the North Sea.

Well for France it's a no win situation. If Germany, and presumably Austria-Hungary, declare war on Russia they're screwed. They either declare war or they lose their only ally against Germany. If they sit out the Russians will never trust them again.
 
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