WI: Dogger Bank Sparks a War

[QuoProQuid]

The Dogger Bank incident was a skirmish between the Russian Baltic Fleet and a group of British trawlers sparked after the former mistook the former for the Imperial Japanese Navy. Due to incorrect reporting and general nervousness, on October 21, 1904 the Russian Navy opened fire on a group of British fishing vessels. Although only five people were killed, the incident provoked international outrage and brought the two powers very close to war. The situation was later defused when Russia agreed to investigate the incident.


What if, however, Dogger Bank developed into a war between Russia and the United Kingdom?



A previous thread on this topic.

 

[mcdo]

I think if Britain goes to war with Russia, France will have a had decision to make. They can either go to war with Britain and Japan, or they can lose their only important ally in Europe. If they do go to war, Germany will be happy--their two greatest enemies are at war with the world's foremost power. I think Germany may even want to join, as it is a once in a lifetime opportunity. I don't know if they could find a good excuse to join in, though. If they do, it is WWI a decade early. The balance of power will be far different from OTL, and not just because Britain is at war with France and Russia.

 

[QuoProQuid]

I think if Britain goes to war with Russia, France will have a had decision to make. They can either go to war with Britain and Japan, or they can lose their only important ally in Europe. If they do go to war, Germany will be happy--their two greatest enemies are at war with the world's foremost power. I think Germany may even want to join, as it is a once in a lifetime opportunity. I don't know if they could find a good excuse to join in, though. If they do, it is WWI a decade early. The balance of power will be far different from OTL, and not just because Britain is at war with France and Russia.

It was mentioned in the previous thread that unless Russia offers France is unlikely to join the war if it remains solely between the British and Russians. The Franco-Russian alliance only dealt with the Triple Alliance. France has no obligation to help until either Germany, Austria-Hungary or Italy become involved.

 

[TyranicusMaximus]

If Britain and Russia don't want a war, would that incident really be enough?

 

[QuoProQuid]

If Britain and Russia don't want a war, would that incident really be enough?

According to Connaughton, relations between Russia and the United Kingdom were already strained because of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. Following the incident, the Royal Navy was ordered to prepare for war and conflict was only avoided at the last minute.

 

[carlton_bach]

If Britain and Russia don't want a war, would that incident really be enough?

Depends on how badly they do not want one. I don't think it's likely to happen, but this is before the experience of Verdun and Passchendaele, and a British government faced with the choice of losing its majority or bowing to pressure to declare war will choose to declare war.

 

[sharlin]

Apparently it came very close to war. I've got the book 'The fleet that had to die' which is about the russian's travelling to the far east. In it is a big bit about the dogger bank incident. The British press was howling for war and the fleet did shadow the Russians, but diplomacy won through.

 

[The Red]

Any chance of Germany and/or Austria joining on Britain's side?

 

[Badshah]

Any chance of Germany and/or Austria joining on Britain's side?

Germany would join IMO. It's a golden opportunity to increase prestige and land, and without any British blockade, supplies would be coming in quite nicely. Plus, with Britain on their side, I don't see why they have to worry about Belgium, really, and the capture of Paris is quite likely, setting France back a lot.

 

[QuoProQuid]

Any chance of Germany and/or Austria joining on Britain's side?

This war is a once in a lifetime opportunity for Germany and it is hard to see them not joining in. The problem is finding a legitimate casus belli. Should Germany get involved, France has to honor its alliance or risk diplomatic isolation once more.



I wonder if it is possible for the United States to get involved. Teddy Roosevelt is the President and the US and Russia have very close relations at this period in time. Only four years ago the two nations allied for the Boxer Rebellion.

 

[Cymraeg]

It still astonishes me that the Russians were so jumpy/paranoid/batshit crazy that they thought that the Imperial Japanese Navy would be waiting to ambush them in the North bloody Sea.

 

[The Red]

This war is a once in a lifetime opportunity for Germany and it is hard to see them not joining in. The problem is finding a legitimate casus belli. Should Germany get involved, France has to honor its alliance or risk diplomatic isolation once more.



I wonder if it is possible for the United States to get involved. Teddy Roosevelt is the President and the US and Russia have very close relations at this period in time. Only four years ago the two nations allied for the Boxer Rebellion.

America, France and Russia against Britain, Germany, Austria Hungary and Japan? Sounds like a great idea for a TL.

 

[sharlin]

France and russia would be overwhelmed whilst Canada would probably have its border 'adjusted' north although baring in mind that the US didn't have much in the way of an army and would have to take time to get one.

Assuming the dogger bank incident does spark a war, you can write off 3/4 of the Russian surface fleet immediately. That left would be obsolete or stuck in the black sea.

The French had a far smaller navy than the RN at the time and combining that with the growing German fleet and you've got absolute naval dominance. In the Far East the IJN can handle the US ships in the phillipenes whilst the british pacific squadrons could take over the french islands and have a serious look at indochina.

 

[The Red]

France and russia would be overwhelmed whilst Canada would probably have its border 'adjusted' north although baring in mind that the US didn't have much in the way of an army and would have to take time to get one.

Assuming the dogger bank incident does spark a war, you can write off 3/4 of the Russian surface fleet immediately. That left would be obsolete or stuck in the black sea.

The French had a far smaller navy than the RN at the time and combining that with the growing German fleet and you've got absolute naval dominance. In the Far East the IJN can handle the US ships in the phillipenes whilst the british pacific squadrons could take over the french islands and have a serious look at indochina.

So in the long term pretty much a US- Quintuple Alliance stalemate?

 

[QuoProQuid]

I'm not sure it would be that clean cut. There are a multitude of wild cards in play including Italy, Austria-Hungary's various ethnic groups, the Ottomans, China, etc which could bog down the war.

 

[sharlin]

Italy was barely a country at the time and had negligable power, the AH were allies of Germany, the Ottomans could be tempted to help the Germans and UK have a pop at Russia. China was a non-entity, crippled by the western powers and russia whilst Japan and russia are still fighting the russo-japanese war and once thats over the Japs would need to reorganise and rest to be able to do anything.

 

[BlondieBC]

Germany would find a reason to join the war. Germany consider attacking France preemptively through Belgium after the second Russian fleet sank anyway. Having the British on their side would be seen as a divine blessing. I don't see the USA entering the war. This war could be over in one year or less. TR is likely to try to mediate more than go to war. The USA interest would be more towards an more autonomous Poland, trade interest in China, safety of the Philippines, etc. It is hard to see the USA upset over a few hundred KM adjustment to the Russian border.

This year is the time period the WW1 battle plan for Germany was changed to the WW1 variant. I think France would be forced by treaty to defend Russia, and this likely brings in AH.

 

[Eurofed]

America, France and Russia against Britain, Germany, Austria Hungary and Japan? Sounds like a great idea for a TL.

Britain, Germany, Austria Hungary, Italy, and Japan. For the Italians, this would be a once in a lifetime opportunity to grab Nice, Savoy, Corsica, Tunisia, and Djibouti with Britain and Germany on our side. We would totally honor the Triple Alliance if Germany fights.

 

[The Red]

Britain, Germany, Austria Hungary, Italy, and Japan. For the Italians, this would be a once in a lifetime opportunity to grab Nice, Savoy, Corsica, Tunisia, and Djibouti with Britain and Germany on our side. We would totally honor the Triple Alliance if Germany fights.

Indeed, hence the Quintuple Alliance.

 

[nandalf]

So, a shorter WWI,wich might turn out better to every one.