WI: Divided Russia

[FranzAncheNo]

Let's say that during the XVI century Muscovy balkanizes somehow and no other state unifies Russia before the XIX century.
What's going to happen to the rest of Europe?
Any thoughts?

Also if you know a TL that involves this PoD, please say it.

 

[Wolttaire]

poland and Sweden rise to greatness has the natural laws of nature and laws

 

[Ivan Lupo]

A series of small, disunited states constantly warring with each other eventually come under the influence of Sweden, Poland, and the Ottomans, eventually getting outright conquered and annexed, vassalized, or getting pushed back further east towards the Urals, minimizing the influence of Orthodox Church in Europe....but perhaps able to spread the faith in other directions.

With that said, I don't know how far Sweden could expand eastward with a much smaller population than either the PLC or the Ottoman Empire, and I can't imagine either of the other two expanding past the Volga River. Modern day Ukraine would be a constant battlefield between the two, just as the Baltic territories would be constantly warred over by the Swedes and Poles.

 

[Arcavia]

Yeah, I imagine that the PLC will be deriving the majority of the benefit in this scenario. The Ottomans have too many other fronts to worry about, and the Swedes just don't really have the population to control that much of the Rus' lands.

However, the Commonwealth will have the problem that the Rus' historically have really not liked the Commonwealth. Their expansion will likely be capped off by revolts and disloyal Cossacks, as well as the sheer size of the terrain and the increased political instability of having yet more nobles in the Sejm. This is mitigated, but not averted, if Moskva is balkanized early enough (i.e. before Liberum Veto). Ultimately, I imagine that the Rus' principalities will end up once again resembling their medieval forms, at least for a while. However, in the long run, I think that one will acquire enough power to unify the others--if not Moskva, perhaps Ryazan or Tver'. At the latest, this will be in the 1800s and we'll see a Rus' unification in a similar vein to OTL German or Italian unification.

 

[Atterdag]

Possibility of a new Nomadic Empire a la the Golden Horde arises if the khanates don't get smashed by Russia?

 

[Augenis]

If Moscow balkanizes during the 16th century, there is no PLC, so discussing Poland's impact in the balkanized Russia is kinda pointless since they have Lithuania in the way.

Not sure how Russia might have balkanized, I don't think that was ever a possibility during the Time of Troubles and there was no power strong enough to force a balkanization any time earlier. If it had though, somehow, then Lithuania's position is going to be pretty interesting. Reconquest of the territory it lost in 1501 will take place immediately, as well as an early Treaty of Vilnius to put Livonia under their control before someone like Sweden gets their hands on it.

That in of itself might be enough to embolden the Lithuanian magnates to try to elect a separate monarch from Poland if and when the House of Jagiellon ends. Which could result in either an end to the Polish-Lithuanian union in 1572, or a Polish-Lithuanian War of Unification (unlikely - it was a possibility in OTL because Lithuania was significantly weaker and embroiled in the Livonian War, not the case here).

If the Union thus ends, and Russia is still balkanized by then, the 17th century is going to be really interesting. The Thirty Years War, if it still takes place, could have an additional front in Russia between Lithuanian and Swedish spheres of influence.

 

[krieger]

There is also other option, which is in TL which I (with some help from other users) wrote on Polish site. It's POD is Queen Hedwig of Anjou siring Vladislaus II Jogaila five healthy children - Elisabeth (born earlier than OTL Elisabeth Bonifacia), Vladislaus, Catherine, Louis and Anna. After the death of Mary of Anjou Sigismund of Luxembourg is deposed from Hungarian throne (he is a usurper and he got imprisoned by his own subjects IOTL). But how it leads to balkanized Russia? Jogaila with Hungary not being a threat to him (and serving under his control instead) and with Teutonic Order being reduced to Livonia in 1411 (consequence of earlier) is not forced to repel the Union of Krewo's agreements of Lithuania being under his personal rule (Vytautas is never a separate Grand Duke, he is only a governor from Jogaila), but Vytautas (due to not being distracted by Teutonic Order and Worskla battle never happening ITTL) captures Moscow, becomes a overlord of whole Rus' and starts rebellion against Jogaila. Rebelion fails (due to fear of marginalisation by Catholic nobility of western Lithuania and Jagiełło having direct control of OTL TO, Poland, Silesia and Hungary combined) and Vytautas and Jogaila sign an agreement - Vytautas gives up his claims to Lithuanian throne (and agrees on Lithuania being tied to Poland in sort of "real union") and Jogaila makes him a hereditary Grand Prince of Vladimir (who is a vassal of Polish crown) and ensures that House of Kęstutis has every right to suceed Vytautas on Vladimir's throne (only when male member of House of Kęstutis is not around, the hereditary right to Vladimir goes to Vladislaus, the elder son of Jogaila ITTL and his descendants). As a confirmation of this peace, Vladislaus Jagiellon (ITTL) marries Anastasia of Moscow (Vytuatas's granddaughter) and thus becomes a hereditary Prince of Moscow (Vassily I dies in captivity ITTL and there is no Vasily II). As a result, the situation of late XVth century Russia looks like this - Moscow and Vladimir are under direct Polish control, with Polish voivode being in Moscow. Tver is still an independent principality (although a Jagiellon vassal, but treated very well, granted even governorship over any other Russian principality not being under direct control of Polish king and Mikhail of Tver being married to sister of ITTL Polish king), so is Ryazan, Republic of Novogorod still exists as independent state (but is also a vassal of Poland), the Great Perm, Moksa and Erzya (Finnish principalities absorberd by Moscow IOTL) are still around and also vassalized by Jagiellons. This is pretty balkanized Russia, isn't it?

 

[alexmilman]

Let's say that during the XVI century Muscovy balkanizes somehow and no other state unifies Russia before the XIX century.
What's going to happen to the rest of Europe?
Any thoughts?

Also if you know a TL that involves this PoD, please say it.

The premise is somewhat ‘other way around’. Realistic scenario is that it never got united. A complete disintegration during the XVI century was impossible because there was already something of a ‘national idea’ backed up by the religious factor. Independence of the former entities was a forgotten past. The neighbors (PLC and Sweden) could take off the pieces of territory, as did happen, but they could not do a meaningful ‘balkanization’ and did not even try anything of the kind. On a contrary, both had their candidates to the throne of Moscow.

OTOH, if unification never happened, then you may end up having a set of the smaller states (not too many). You’ll also have a set of the Tatar states in Volga area (assuming that the GH still falls apart, which is not guaranteed). PLC and Sweden could get somewhat more than they did in OTL but experience of the Time of Troubles is not very encouraging as far as Swedish occupation of Novgorod is involved.
PLC could expand but even with the endless versions of the dynastic marriages which are regularly proposed in various threads chances of avoiding a bloody mess and to become a strong unified state are not too good and the problems with a noticeably bigger Orthodox population will not going away.

As for the rest of Europe, no Russian participation in the 7YW, no GNW, no Russian involvement in Napoleonic wars, the list is endless with numerous butterfly effects.

 

[alexmilman]

There is also other option, which is in TL which I (with some help from other users) wrote on Polish site. It's POD is Queen Hedwig of Anjou siring Vladislaus II Jogaila five healthy children - Elisabeth (born earlier than OTL Elisabeth Bonifacia), Vladislaus, Catherine, Louis and Anna. After the death of Mary of Anjou Sigismund of Luxembourg is deposed from Hungarian throne (he is a usurper and he got imprisoned by his own subjects IOTL). But how it leads to balkanized Russia? Jogaila with Hungary not being a threat to him (and serving under his control instead) and with Teutonic Order being reduced to Livonia in 1411 (consequence of earlier) is not forced to repel the Union of Krewo's agreements of Lithuania being under his personal rule (Vytautas is never a separate Grand Duke, he is only a governor from Jogaila), but Vytautas (due to not being distracted by Teutonic Order and Worskla battle never happening ITTL) captures Moscow, becomes a overlord of whole Rus' and starts rebellion against Jogaila.

Actually, this was rather other way around. In OTL Vitautas was officially ‘protector of Moscow’ where his grandso was a prince and daughter a regent. An idea of being an overlord had been directly related to the campaign which ended with a disaster at Worskla. Totkhamish whom Vitold was planning to restore on GH throne was going to acknowledge Vitold as his overlord and to transfer to him the right of an overlordship over the Russian territories. This of course would require a stable succession and has nothing to do with Balkanization. On acountrary, this would result in an early creation of “super Lithuania-Russia”.

Capture of Moscow as a way to become an overlord of Rus is a silly idea: city itself was pretty much meaningless and Vitautas did not have resources for conquest of the whole territory.

 

[krieger]

Actually, this was rather other way around. In OTL Vitautas was officially ‘protector of Moscow’ where his grandso was a prince and daughter a regent. An idea of being an overlord had been directly related to the campaign which ended with a disaster at Worskla. Totkhamish whom Vitold was planning to restore on GH throne was going to acknowledge Vitold as his overlord and to transfer to him the right of an overlordship over the Russian territories. This of course would require a stable succession and has nothing to do with Balkanization. On acountrary, this would result in an early creation of “super Lithuania-Russia”.

Capture of Moscow as a way to become an overlord of Rus is a silly idea: city itself was pretty much meaningless and Vitautas did not have resources for conquest of the whole territory.

This is ATL. Vorskla never actually happened ITTL and Vytautas had more resources, because he was nominated to be Jogaila's governor later than OTL. And ATL Vytautas has more resources, because he's not distracted by TO (it is expelled from Prussia and reduced to Livonia, because Jogaila has also Hungary under his control, so no Luxembourg monarch could stop him and Marienburg is captured due to increased amount of Jogaila's forces, in addition Henry von Plauen is never released from Polish captivity ITTL). Indeed, it would if Vytautas's rebellion ITTL suceeded. But it didn't because Jogaila ITTL is also a king of Hungary and acquired , Prussia (and incorporated it directly to a Polish crown), so Polish (including Prussian) and Hungarian (Turkey went through a civil war at the time when TTL rebelion of Vytautas happens, so it is not able to distract Hungarians) swords actively prevented the creation of "super Tsardom of Lithuania and Russia" and balkanization ITTL happened as a result of Vytautas's defeat. ITTL he captured Vassili I, so he forced him to grant overlordship to the Lithuania. GH was already starting to collapse by the time of ITTL Vytautas's rebellion and Vytautas succeeded in placing his ally on the throne of GH (but much later than Vorskla, ITTL it happened in 1418 and was over in 1420).

 

[Jan Olbracht]

PLC could expand but even with the endless versions of the dynastic marriages which are regularly proposed in various threads chances of avoiding a bloody mess and to become a strong unified state are not too good and the problems with a noticeably bigger Orthodox population will not going away.

.

As @Augenis mentioned, there would not be PLC without united Russian state. Lithuanians would not agree for something like Union of Lublin if GDL was not in danger of being conquered by Moscow. In fact ties between Poland and Lithuania would be loosened much earlier (from late 15th/early 16th century) and Poland, not needeing to use her resources against Moscow (something that started at begining of reign of Sigismund I) would concentrate more energy in West and South (Pomerania, Prussia and Bohemia/Hungary).

 

[alexmilman]

As @Augenis mentioned, there would not be PLC without united Russian state.

That's more or less granted because the PLC was created to protect Lithuania against aggression of Ivan IV. However, "during the XVI century Muscovy balkanizes" formally gives enough time for the troubles to start after the PLC was created. In OTL the Time of Troubles which started in 1598 (still XVI) and the problems could start earlier if the death of the last Rurikid Tsar resulted in a succession crisis (avoided in OTL by election of Boris Godunov) escalating into the civic war, etc. As I said before, I don't think that by that time "Balkanization" was a realistic option, pretty much as "Balkanization" of the PLC during the Deluge: the notion of a national unity was too strong and potential loss of the peripheral territories would not amount to "Balkanization".

 

[Jan Olbracht]

@alexmilman what would you say about possibility of religious split (sort of Russian reformation, like the one that divided Western Christianity) with 15th century POD? Possible? Perhaps Something like Judaising Sect being successful localy?

 

[alexmilman]

This is ATL. Vorskla never actually happened ITTL and Vytautas had more resources, because he was nominated to be Jogaila's governor later than OTL. And ATL Vytautas has more resources, because he's not distracted by TO (it is expelled from Prussia and reduced to Livonia, because Jogaila has also Hungary under his control, so no Luxembourg monarch could stop him and Marienburg is captured due to increased amount of Jogaila's forces, in addition Henry von Plauen is never released from Polish captivity ITTL). Indeed, it would if Vytautas's rebellion ITTL suceeded. But it didn't because Jogaila ITTL is also a king of Hungary and acquired , Prussia (and incorporated it directly to a Polish crown), so Polish (including Prussian) and Hungarian (Turkey went through a civil war at the time when TTL rebelion of Vytautas happens, so it is not able to distract Hungarians) swords actively prevented the creation of "super Tsardom of Lithuania and Russia" and balkanization ITTL happened as a result of Vytautas's defeat. ITTL he captured Vassili I, so he forced him to grant overlordship to the Lithuania. GH was already starting to collapse by the time of ITTL Vytautas's rebellion and Vytautas succeeded in placing his ally on the throne of GH (but much later than Vorskla, ITTL it happened in 1418 and was over in 1420).

A lot of details, most of which are absolutely irrelevant to the issue and completely ignoring real strength of the sides and realities of life.

To start with, while territory of Lithuania was big, its military strength was quite limited and expansionism worked mostly against the weak and disunited opponents, like princedoms of Smolensk: At Grunwald Polish contingent had been noticeably bigger in numbers and considerably more powerful because Lithuania was noticeably short on an armored cavalry. His war against Vasily I (who already was his son in law) was pretty much a stalemate. Grand Duchy of Moscow already expanded well beyond the Moscow princedom and capture of its capital would mean little (Tokhtamysh burned it but so what?) and for conquest of a big part of it Vitold did not have resources. Neither did Poland of that time: not enough military resources and wrong geography.

FYI, Prince of Moscow could not "grant overlordship" of his territory to anybody because this was up to the Khan of the GH and continued to be the case all the way until the reign of Ivan III who declared himself independent. In OTL Vitold had a legal claimant to the GH throne, its former Khan Tokhtamysh who still had considerable contingents to support his claim. If Vitold waits for a couple decades, the whole schema is pretty much meaningless because the moment is lost, son of Tokhtamysh is on the throne and owns Vitold nothing (ditto for his successors). So the Vorskla-related schema was the only way for Vitold to became a legal overlord of the Princedoms of Moscow and Grand Duchy of Tver.

In OTL Novgorod recognized Vitold as a "protector" in OTL but this did not mean too much in the terms of exercising a real control.

 

[alexmilman]

@alexmilman what would you say about possibility of religious split (sort of Russian reformation, like the one that divided Western Christianity) with 15th century POD? Possible? Perhaps Something like Judaising Sect being successful localy?

Religion is not my area of interest but my 2c worth is that as soon as there was a strong Russian state, the religious issues could not split it. Whatever becomes the "mainstream" religion would dominate the Russian Church. By mid-XV century "Muscovy" already became an authoritarian state and I doubt that its rulers would find religious splits useful for their rule. However, I may be wrong about that: in OTL at least for a while the "Judaising" (for example, Kuritsin family) had been retaining their positions at the court of Ivan III even after the Church officially condemned the heresy.

 

[krieger]

A lot of details, most of which are absolutely irrelevant to the issue and completely ignoring real strength of the sides and realities of life.

To start with, while territory of Lithuania was big, its military strength was quite limited and expansionism worked mostly against the weak and disunited opponents, like princedoms of Smolensk: At Grunwald Polish contingent had been noticeably bigger in numbers and considerably more powerful because Lithuania was noticeably short on an armored cavalry. His war against Vasily I (who already was his son in law) was pretty much a stalemate. Grand Duchy of Moscow already expanded well beyond the Moscow princedom and capture of its capital would mean little (Tokhtamysh burned it but so what?) and for conquest of a big part of it Vitold did not have resources. Neither did Poland of that time: not enough military resources and wrong geography.

FYI, Prince of Moscow could not "grant overlordship" of his territory to anybody because this was up to the Khan of the GH and continued to be the case all the way until the reign of Ivan III who declared himself independent. In OTL Vitold had a legal claimant to the GH throne, its former Khan Tokhtamysh who still had considerable contingents to support his claim. If Vitold waits for a couple decades, the whole schema is pretty much meaningless because the moment is lost, son of Tokhtamysh is on the throne and owns Vitold nothing (ditto for his successors). So the Vorskla-related schema was the only way for Vitold to became a legal overlord of the Princedoms of Moscow and Grand Duchy of Tver.

In OTL Novgorod recognized Vitold as a "protector" in OTL but this did not mean too much in the terms of exercising a real control.

Yes, it's true. But Moscow was no stronger back then and if Vytautas's war was a stalemate with Teutonic Order existing (and it was prior to peace of Melno), imagine how much better Vytautas would do against Moscow if there is only Livonia existing (and Vytautas had it's help ITTL)? I know. But it was not only a capture of capital, but the prince himself (and he had no son prior TTL capture). Vytautas didn't have resources ITTL, but he has more ITTL and his conquest is temporary, and his further reign in Vladimir ITTL comes from the mercy of Jogaila (who has not only Polish, but Hungarian and Prussian troops ITTL under himself). This "son of Tokhamtysh" thing is a nice simplification. Tokhamtysh had five sons, who were constantly clashing over the throne and almost everyone out of them supposedly died due to his brother's action. And the khan in (both ATL and OTL) 1417, when the fun begins was https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jabbarberdi, who was backed by Lithuanians. And he wasn't the brightest ruler, because Edigu was fighting with Vytautas against his will. And his assasination incited civil war in Golden Horde and led to further unstability. His succesor, Dervish Khan was assasinated by a younger son of Tokhamtysh, Kadirberdi and Kadirberdi was fighting with Edigu. Is GH in this state a threat to anyone? No. Would Jabarberdi be willing to grant Vytautas overlordship? Yes. Yes, and it doesn't mean much ITTL. Novogorod is de facto independent ITTL until House of Kęstutis dies out.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Religion is not my area of interest but my 2c worth is that as soon as there was a strong Russian state, the religious issues could not split it. Whatever becomes the "mainstream" religion would dominate the Russian Church. By mid-XV century "Muscovy" already became an authoritarian state and I doubt that its rulers would find religious splits useful for their rule. However, I may be wrong about that: in OTL at least for a while the "Judaising" (for example, Kuritsin family) had been retaining their positions at the court of Ivan III even after the Church officially condemned the heresy.

There were rulers driven by their religious beliefs more than by political gains, so if ruler of Moscow decides to impose his religious views on his subjects (something, that less authoritharian Western/Northern European monarchs managed to do) could it work? Then Moscow would differ by religion from Novgorod, Lithuania's Ruthenian lands and Orthodox population of Balkans.

 

[alexmilman]

There were rulers driven by their religious beliefs more than by political gains, so if ruler of Moscow decides to impose his religious views on his subjects (something, that less authoritharian Western/Northern European monarchs managed to do) could it work? Then Moscow would differ by religion from Novgorod, Lithuania's Ruthenian lands and Orthodox population of Balkans.

By the time of the "Judaising" heresy, Ivan III pretty much controlled both Moscow and Novgorod (places with the biggest popularity of the sect) so the difference would not be there and other lands on your list were not a part of the Muscovite state and would not matter too much for quite a while.