Well you still have Sardinia-Piedmont in the north, and Victor Emmanuel was pretty keen on the idea of unification. It depends on when Garibaldi and the Garibaldinos meet their end. If it butterflies or stops the plebiscites of 1860 then Emmanuel is either going to have to be content with what he has or go through a much bloodier reunification and take Tuscany and the other regions by force, and even then he'd still have to go through the Papal States and Sicily. In this scenario Italy might never be unified, an you might have the peninsula split between Sardinia-Piedmont, Sicily and the Papal States.
If the PoD has the plebiscites go through, then unification is much more likely. You'd have the kingdom of Italy ruling everything from the Alps to Umbria and possibly beyond, holding Italy's financial and industrial heartland. It would be more complicated than OTL but I doubt that such a state would lose to the already unstable Kingdom of the Two Sicilies or the ailing Papal States.
As for what happens if Italy never happens (first scenario), Libya either remains in Turkish hands or there's a different war and some other power takes it. Not sure how the lack of Italy affects WWI (if it happens) though.