WI: Divided Czechoslovakia after WWII?

[Chörnyj Orel]

If the Soviet Union was a little weaker than OTL and Germany got divided (mostly) by the Elbe river (with East Germany holding the 1937-eastern borders, minus East Prussia), would it be possible, the USA and the USSR decided to split CS into two parts as well? One part is western orientated (maybe also member of the NATO), the other part becomes part of the eastern bloc.
Where would be the border? Would CS be divided into Czechia and Slovakia? Or will CS be divided into Bohemia and Moravia-Slovakia?

And how likely is such a scenario at all?

 

[hzn5pk]

For this, the WEllies would have to advance further in 1944

Occupation zones were determined at the Yalta conference. A greater advance in 1944 might result in the Czech republic being western dominated or neutral like Austria.

A related item, was that the USA did not advance in Europe with post war ambitions in mind. The USA was focussed on defeating Germany and then defeating Japan. Britain was concerned about post war Europe.

If allied boots were in prauge, then might have western Czech republic.

A pod might be in 1943 to settle on a stronger med campaign as the brits wanted.

This might also net Yugoslavia and Hungary to west as well.

For this, the Americans would need to bow to the British and not worry that the British were trying to dominate the med politically.

The US saw the collapse of Germany though as the path through Paris to the low countries to the Rhine to industrialisec Ruhr valley. The us wanted the European war over as quickly as possible and did not look to what the post war make up would be per se.

 

[Thomas1195]

For this, the WEllies would have to advance further in 1944

Occupation zones were determined at the Yalta conference. A greater advance in 1944 might result in the Czech republic being western dominated or neutral like Austria.

A related item, was that the USA did not advance in Europe with post war ambitions in mind. The USA was focussed on defeating Germany and then defeating Japan. Britain was concerned about post war Europe.

If allied boots were in prauge, then might have western Czech republic.

A pod might be in 1943 to settle on a stronger med campaign as the brits wanted.

This might also net Yugoslavia and Hungary to west as well.

For this, the Americans would need to bow to the British and not worry that the British were trying to dominate the med politically.

The US saw the collapse of Germany though as the path through Paris to the low countries to the Rhine to industrialisec Ruhr valley. The us wanted the European war over as quickly as possible and did not look to what the post war make up would be per se.

You would also need the US to retain military presence in Czech until 1950 to prevent any Communist coup. One advantage here was that the US was not responsible for Munich.

 

[David T]

The problem is that both the government in exile (Benes) and most of the people of Czechoslovakia wanted a united Czechoslovakia. They welcomed Allied troops--western or Soviet--as liberators, but wanted them to be withdrawn soon. If the US rejected Soviet proposals for mutual withdrawal and a united Czechoslovakia, the probable result would be a Communist electoral victory in the Czech lands even greater than that of 1946 in OTL.

 

[Jürgen]

The problem is that both the government in exile (Benes) and most of the people of Czechoslovakia wanted a united Czechoslovakia. They welcomed Allied troops--western or Soviet--as liberators, but wanted them to be withdrawn soon. If the US rejected Soviet proposals for mutual withdrawal and a united Czechoslovakia, the probable result would be a Communist electoral victory in the Czech lands even greater than that of 1946 in OTL.

Quite likely, but in that case I expect the Amnericans to object to expulsion of the Germans, with 1/3 of the population being German I expect the communist will be unable to gain majority. We will likely see Bohemia (as it will likely be called in English) being very unhappy place in the early post-War years, but tempers will likely cool in the decades after the War, with Bohemia becoming a founding member of EEC and a major industrial power, but as the Iron Curtain falls, we may see Czechoslovakia reborn with Slovakia joining Bohemia into Czechoslovakia again. The Czechs want it because they will see slovaks as eastern "Czechs" and as a way to weaken the German minority, the Slovak want the sweet Czech money and Germany will support it to make other accept German reunification.

 

[David T]

Quite likely, but in that case I expect the Amnericans to object to expulsion of the Germans, with 1/3 of the population being German I expect the communist will be unable to gain majority.

Trying to stop the expulsions is a sure way to unite the Czechs against the US. Of course a government hostile to the US could be prevented--but only by (in effect) a US military dictatorship over the country with support only among the German minority and Czech "collaborators.". The US is not going to be in the mood for that--it's not as though Americans didn't have their own grievances against the Germans.