WI Nagumo succumbs to pressure from his air group commanders and launches a third strike at the oil tanks and harbor installations. The strike is somewhat successful, knocking out about half the oil storage facility (but missing the civilian storage facility at Honolulu harbor) and damaging the shipyards.
The aircraft are on their way back at dusk when disaster strikes. Enterprise and Lexington have closed in and launched their strike, hitting the Japanese carriers just before dusk. The demands of the third strike mean that Japanese CAP is inadequate and what there is gets pulled down to sea level to fight the torpedo planes. That's when the dive bombers arrive and get to work.
By the time the strike is over, the situation is
Akagi, burning and crippled, her flight deck gone. Fires out of control
Kaga, burning and crippled, her flight deck gone. Fires out of control
Soryu, burning and crippled, her flight deck gone. Fires out of control
Hiryu, undamaged
Shokaku, torpedoed once, hit twice by bombs, fires bad but under control speed down to 20 knots
Zuikaku undamaged
Hiei undamaged
Kirishima undamaged
Tone undamaged
Chikuma. Hit aft by a Vindicator and set on fire. Torpedoes exploded leaving ship devastated and capable of only 6 knots.
Destroyers, strafed but essentially undamaged.
The Japanese can't recover their third strike. The aircraft ditch and are lost. Of 414 Japanese aircraft, only 60 survive.
So, (a) you're Nagumo. What do you do (your sword was lost with Akago so you can't commit suicide).
b) where does WW2 go from here.