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I've noticed CP victory is a rather popular issue, so I apologize in advance if this comes up as too unoriginal (or too unplausible).

Basically, I wonder what kind of different Central and Entente line-up among great and medium powers might ensure an early and total CP victory. By early I mean in 1914-16, by total I mean Russia suffering surrender and/or revolution and a Brest-Litovsk peace, France suffering defeat and a reverse Versailles peace. Afterwards, the British Empire, assuming it even sided with the Entente in the first place, eventually throws the towel and signs a compromise peace, I guess.

My own initial idea for the scenario, which I kindly ask to assume as granted if it's not really too outlandish, would be that the CP do not suffer A-U instability and get Italy on their side from the start, since a more thorough Prussian-Italian victory and greater Hungarian unrest in 1866-67 leads to a collapse and partition of the Hapsburg Empire. Italy annexes Venetia, Trento, Trieste, Gorizia and Gradisca, and Istria. The a-borning Greater German Empire gets Austria, Slovenia, and Bohemia-Moravia. The Kingdom of Hungary gets Transylvania, Slovakia, and Croatia. Italy has no more any significant irredentist claims on Germany and Hungary, whileas it has several on France, so it stays faithful to the Triple Alliance. Germany is strengthened, and the rump Hapsburg empire is reorganized in a more manageable Greater Hungary.

So the core lineup would be

Central: (greater) Germany, (greater) Italy, (greater) Hungary
vs.
Entente: France, Russia, Serbia.

I assume USA never enters the war on the Entente side's simply because the war ends early and a greater CP success means provocative moves like unrestricted submarine warfare and the Zimmerman telegram are never used.

Beside this, I wonder what kind of variations of the lineup would be likely, compatible, and/or necessary, to ensure CP victory ?

UK: I assume it still enters the war on the Entente's side, if TTL Germany triggers a naval race, and invades Belgium. Missing the latter, it might stay neutral, and missing the former, it might even ally with Germany. Either outcome would ensure the CP victory.

Ottoman Empire: I wonder, would a CP with Italy still get Turkey on its side by late 1914, or would they stay neutral, or even side with the Entente ? Their loss weakens the CP considerably, their stay puts a rather greater pressure on Russia, with all of Hungary's strength focused on it, once Serbia is quickly dispatched.

Sweden: I seem to remember there were some definite sympathies for Germany, how plausible might be for them to enter the fray, and make a move to liberate the Finns and the Baltics ? if they side with the CP, would it mean France and an Entente UK may invade Norway, or they may woo it on their side, against their Scandinavian brethren ? How significant would a Swedish army be against Russia ?

Spain: might a more thorough German-Italian Alliance victory on France in 1870 mean a successful Hohenzollern or Savoia dynasty is installed in Spain, and might this (or another POD) mean they ally with the CPs ? A three-sided (Belgium/Lorraine, Alps, Pyrenees) assault on France might just overstretch the front and manpower of France (and Entente UK) beyond recovery, as it did happen to Napoleon, to a point. However, I wonder what course a USA vs. a German-Italian-Spanish Alliance 1898 war might take.

If Spain goes CP, what about Portugal ? Will it stay neutral, or go Entente according to its old UK ties, opening up an Iberian front ? Might this mean Spain eventually conquers Portugal and reunifies the peninsula as it almost did in the 1500s-1600s ?

Bulgaria: will they pick the side of the Ottoman Empire, or will they still side with the CP nonetheless, according to their German ties ?

Romania: will they be Entente, Central, or neutral ? They have claims on Hungary and Russia both.

Japan will honor its UK alliance, I guess.
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