WI: Different target of assassination in 1914 starts WW1

So, this is pretty simple: what if the Serbian nationalists assassinate an important member of the Austro-Hungarian Empire who isn't Franz Ferdinand, triggering WW1 but with Franz Ferdinand still alive? What would happen if, say, Franz Joseph was assassinated instead?
 
Short of assassinating FJ himself, which would be an extremely difficult task (and a rather pointless one) just killing a high-ranking Austrian official would not necessarily trigger war, especially not if Franz Ferdinand has decisive input in the decision-making.
The exception would be a botched assassination in Sarajevo where Sophie Chotek is killed and Franz Ferdinand is not; in that case, he would be very likely to want vengeance.
Anyway, Franz Ferdinand was, apparently, unconvinced of the wisdom of going to war with Russia over Serbia, which most understood would be the case if Austria attacked Serbia.
 
Short of assassinating FJ himself, which would be an extremely difficult task (and a rather pointless one) just killing a high-ranking Austrian official would not necessarily trigger war, especially not if Franz Ferdinand has decisive input in the decision-making.
The exception would be a botched assassination in Sarajevo where Sophie Chotek is killed and Franz Ferdinand is not; in that case, he would be very likely to want vengeance.
Anyway, Franz Ferdinand was, apparently, unconvinced of the wisdom of going to war with Russia over Serbia, which most understood would be the case if Austria attacked Serbia.
Well, what would happen if they killed Franz Joseph or Sophie?
 
Well, what would happen if they killed Franz Joseph or Sophie?

Well for one, I'd hate to be the French, Russian, or British government members who have to go home to their wives and tell them "We're going to war to stop a grieving widower from achieving justice for his beloved, dead wife."
 
Well, what would happen if they killed Franz Joseph or Sophie?
For FJ? Leaving aside the total implausibility of that, war. Immediately. No ultimatum, almost no diplomacy. As soon as the Austrian government has proof, even flimsy, of any sort of Serbian government connection with the assassins, and gets it act together, Austria invades in full might, period.
You just do not let rogue elements of your state apparatus to kill a foreign head of state in 1914 and whereabouts. This might not trigger a wider war, because here it may be that even the Tsar feels uncomfortable about supporting Serbia.
If it's Sophie, then it is going to turn complicated. Some sort of major war seems likely.
 
Top