WI the Germans are more successful during Barbarossa, for whatever reason. They are able to interdict much of the Soviets' supply chains and severely damage or destroy many of their arms and morale. The Eastern Front is still overwhelmingly gruesome and the rest of WWII goes on as in OTL, but it takes the Soviets much longer to get their act together and start fighting westward.
At the end of the war, the Soviets, instead of being as far west as Germany, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia, have managed to fight their way into Europe with the front line in eastern Poland, western Ukraine, and much of Romania and Bulgaria. Thus, instead of the West's leaders feeling pushed into giving the Soviets control of much of Eastern Europe, the opposite is the case: the Russians are in a much weaker bargaining position.
What happens next? I can imagine Bulgaria, Ukraine, and Romania falling under Russian control much as they did IOTL. With the Russians only in control of eastern Poland, could we see a divided Poland, a la East and West Germany? Would the West care as much about a divided Warsaw as they did about Berlin? How does the Marshall Plan, etc., happen, especially with the USA straddled with the reconstruction costs of at least four more countries?
How does the rest of the Cold War progress? Assuming there is no Warsaw Pact (and if there was one it'd be much weaker), I think that the Soviets have little to no play in Europe. Would they refocus their attention elsewhere, to Asia, the Middle East, and Africa? Would the lack of an East-West stalemate in Europe lead to a bloodier Cold War?
At the end of the war, the Soviets, instead of being as far west as Germany, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia, have managed to fight their way into Europe with the front line in eastern Poland, western Ukraine, and much of Romania and Bulgaria. Thus, instead of the West's leaders feeling pushed into giving the Soviets control of much of Eastern Europe, the opposite is the case: the Russians are in a much weaker bargaining position.
What happens next? I can imagine Bulgaria, Ukraine, and Romania falling under Russian control much as they did IOTL. With the Russians only in control of eastern Poland, could we see a divided Poland, a la East and West Germany? Would the West care as much about a divided Warsaw as they did about Berlin? How does the Marshall Plan, etc., happen, especially with the USA straddled with the reconstruction costs of at least four more countries?
How does the rest of the Cold War progress? Assuming there is no Warsaw Pact (and if there was one it'd be much weaker), I think that the Soviets have little to no play in Europe. Would they refocus their attention elsewhere, to Asia, the Middle East, and Africa? Would the lack of an East-West stalemate in Europe lead to a bloodier Cold War?