WI Different peace of Frankfurt 1871

So what if Bismarck decided that instead of building up a system to isolate the french he will want to include the french in the system.

For this Germany doesnt annex Alsace Lorraine, Germany is not proclaimed in Versailles but somewhere in Germany and the indemnity to be paid is substantially smaller.

Would this be enough to make the french amiable for a german alliance a bit later? What other effect would it have?

France: Would it be more likely to turn in to a Monarchy? Also I read opinions that the loss of Alsace was just the tip of the iceberg and what France really couldnt stomach was that this defeat and the emerging germany eclipsing them irrevocably shattered their idea of being the Great Nation. But putting this aside france will necesserily have its main focus on Germany: its too strong and its a neigbour. He can try to search for allies against Germany (OTL) or without Alsace they might try to ally it?

Germany: Bismarck abandoing an important nationalistic goal will surely hurt his standing with that group. Aside from that without a french enemy what would change in Germany?

Diplomatically the biggest question would be how Brittain might react to a german - french alliance that also likely includes Russia and Austria?
 

raharris1973

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So what if Bismarck decided that instead of building up a system to isolate the french he will want to include the french in the system.

For this Germany doesnt annex Alsace Lorraine, Germany is not proclaimed in Versailles but somewhere in Germany and the indemnity to be paid is substantially smaller.

Would this be enough to make the french amiable for a german alliance a bit later? What other effect would it have?

France: Would it be more likely to turn in to a Monarchy? Also I read opinions that the loss of Alsace was just the tip of the iceberg and what France really couldnt stomach was that this defeat and the emerging germany eclipsing them irrevocably shattered their idea of being the Great Nation. But putting this aside france will necesserily have its main focus on Germany: its too strong and its a neigbour. He can try to search for allies against Germany (OTL) or without Alsace they might try to ally it?

Germany: Bismarck abandoing an important nationalistic goal will surely hurt his standing with that group. Aside from that without a french enemy what would change in Germany?

Diplomatically the biggest question would be how Brittain might react to a german - french alliance that also likely includes Russia and Austria?

Britain would have no reply to such an alliance, so it would have to leave Europe alone.
 
Britain would have no reply to such an alliance, so it would have to leave Europe alone.

Eiter that or join it just to be not outside of the system. We would basically get an everyone has a defense alliance with everyone situation.

Or Brittain might try to break up the alliance. A grouping like that will be by necessity anti british if Brittain doesnt join.
 
So what if Bismarck decided that instead of building up a system to isolate the french he will want to include the french in the system.

For this Germany doesnt annex Alsace Lorraine, Germany is not proclaimed in Versailles but somewhere in Germany and the indemnity to be paid is substantially smaller.

Would this be enough to make the french amiable for a german alliance a bit later? What other effect would it have?

France: Would it be more likely to turn in to a Monarchy? Also I read opinions that the loss of Alsace was just the tip of the iceberg and what France really couldnt stomach was that this defeat and the emerging germany eclipsing them irrevocably shattered their idea of being the Great Nation. But putting this aside france will necesserily have its main focus on Germany: its too strong and its a neigbour. He can try to search for allies against Germany (OTL) or without Alsace they might try to ally it?

Germany: Bismarck abandoing an important nationalistic goal will surely hurt his standing with that group. Aside from that without a french enemy what would change in Germany?

Diplomatically the biggest question would be how Brittain might react to a german - french alliance that also likely includes Russia and Austria?

I suspect that France would look for allies against Germany, even if they kept Alsace-Lorraine. As you say, Germany is stronger than France and right on its doorstep, so the French would surely worry that any alliance between the two countries would end up with France being dominated by Germany. Maybe they'd sign a tactical alliance to keep Germany off their backs for a bit, but look for them to break it when they feel sufficiently strong/have found a sufficiently strong ally to help them.
 

raharris1973

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Eiter that or join it just to be not outside of the system. We would basically get an everyone has a defense alliance with everyone situation.

Or Brittain might try to break up the alliance. A grouping like that will be by necessity anti british if Brittain doesnt join.

Well it may be helpful to consider what Britain did in other instances when it was confronted with a continent of powers largely allied to each other and not doing what Britain wanted.

Example A. During the American Revolution, Britain had no allies, was faced by a belligerent maritime coalition, with the rest of the countries ranging from Armed Neutrality to friendly but unhelpful. Britain did not have any successful recourse (other than a naval revival) until it lost the war.

Example B. Britain quickly tired of the Concert of Power, and the Quintuple Alliance, in the 7 years after the end of the Napoleonic Wars. Britain did not like the police powers to suppress revolution that the continental powers assigned to themselves, and so opted out. They *did not* resist the rest of the Concert within Europe, France got to successfully invade and occupy Spain, but Britain did apply it's power where it was relatively easy and profitable to do so, by adopting policies favoring Latin American independence.
 
Well it may be helpful to consider what Britain did in other instances when it was confronted with a continent of powers largely allied to each other and not doing what Britain wanted.

Example A. During the American Revolution, Britain had no allies, was faced by a belligerent maritime coalition, with the rest of the countries ranging from Armed Neutrality to friendly but unhelpful. Britain did not have any successful recourse (other than a naval revival) until it lost the war.

Example B. Britain quickly tired of the Concert of Power, and the Quintuple Alliance, in the 7 years after the end of the Napoleonic Wars. Britain did not like the police powers to suppress revolution that the continental powers assigned to themselves, and so opted out. They *did not* resist the rest of the Concert within Europe, France got to successfully invade and occupy Spain, but Britain did apply it's power where it was relatively easy and profitable to do so, by adopting policies favoring Latin American independence.

However the situation is a bit different here: we can be sure that clashes on the colonies are coming with France and Russia. Both of those countries are in the alliance and because Germany is as well they can move against Brittain without holding back because of a continental enemy. Germany after Bismarck might be persuaded as well with the promise of some british colonies. With an alliance of such potential I dont think Brittain will sit idly by the sideline.
 
However the situation is a bit different here: we can be sure that clashes on the colonies are coming with France and Russia. Both of those countries are in the alliance and because Germany is as well they can move against Brittain without holding back because of a continental enemy. Germany after Bismarck might be persuaded as well with the promise of some british colonies. With an alliance of such potential I dont think Brittain will sit idly by the sideline.

And we assume Russia is in this alliance because...

A Germany allied with France is a Germany capable of projecting power in the East, where her own economic, political, and strategic interests would be far better served than pursuing a colonial empire at Britain's expense. I'd argue its far more likely Russia and Britain end The Great Game early and come to a consensus over the Pacific and Centeral Asia in order to insure the Franco-German alliance can be effectively contained.
 
And we assume Russia is in this alliance because...
A Germany allied with France is a Germany capable of projecting power in the East, where her own economic, political, and strategic interests would be far better served than pursuing a colonial empire at Britain's expense. I'd argue its far more likely Russia and Britain end The Great Game early and come to a consensus over the Pacific and Centeral Asia in order to insure the Franco-German alliance can be effectively contained.

Because they were already basically allied and because they dont have any real bone to pick with each other. Also a possible answer for Russia is: to secure Europe while they are having conflicts in the east with Brittain/Japan etc. OTL they were allied as long as Russia didnt get into conflict with Austria in the Balkans but Bismarck managed to keep them away from France even after that. Dont see they need more reason than OTL.

But even if we assume you are right: You basically have Germany - Austria - France against Brittain - Russia before WWI. Thats pretty one sided.

Also further points: Japan OTL allied Brittain baically against Russia so im not sure how that turns out but Japan might not be on Brittains side. Also what agreement did Brittain and Russia reach: without the russo-japanese war Russian expansionism in china is a more direct threat to british interests than the european alliance. And Russia confronted on the balkans with the german-austrian-french alliance might well decide to search for easier prey in the east - they usually did.
 
That's exactly my point though; France allying with Germany so long as Germany is the primary threat to Russia (Not just a check on Russian expansionism; German AGRESSION in Baltic-Poland is to their advantage) would put them on the same situation to Russia as Austria became by refusing to back her interests during the Crimean War; its liable to break down the alliance. Furthermore, like you point out, a Detante with Russia early on likely means no Anglo-Japanese alliance... but since the primary point of the of the A-J was to check Russian expansion in the East, that's not a big lose compared to getting a nice, fat stick on the Continent and neutralizing the threat to the Indian frontier. Britain is quite capable of shuffling her colonial priorities around with the changing geo-political situation to lower the importance she places on northern China... particularly since now she no longer has to concede to any Japanese concerns whatsoever (Indeed, Japan might very well end up a route of Russian expansion, or at least Korea) and can take a harder line on German and French expansion in Africa. With British naval support and Japan neutralized by no British patronage to help build/modernize her navy, a large Russian military investment in the east becomes unessicery: after all, who can resist? They can afford to meddle in both regions... which DOES likely push he Ottomans into the Franco-German-Austrian camp (Poor, diplomatically and geographically isolated Italy probably ends up the playground of outside influences), only the (Let's call them the 4 Emperor's League,since I imagine the Germans are liable to try to get a monarch in France) are the ones sitting on all the powder kegs.

As for the unbalance, let's remember that ITTL GB; banking capital of the world, is going to be a major investor in Russia from earlier on. Combined with her ample natural resources and manpower advantage, that's a huge plus mark in her camp, in addition to the fact that the Russian navy both woulden't be destroyed in 1905 and like as not have received naval aid that otherwise would have gone to Japan IOTL. Half a century of butterflies for a nation with Russia's potential in the "Demography and Geography are destiny" catagory can create a hurricane. As can a massive shift in the alliance model during the same time period.
 
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I really don't see a Franco-German alliance even if France keep Alsace-Lorraine. Less hostility sure but alliance no way.
 
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