To what people groups are you referring to?
The people in South Sudan.
To what people groups are you referring to?
Given their history with each other, I'd have thought the Dinka and Nuer at least would have welcomed the idea of finally no longer having to share living space with their biggest rival.The people in South Sudan.
Which opens some serious problems in its own. What makes these governments think that they can carve up South Sudan like that? Also Egypt would want a strong buffer state in the south.
Chief Lapponya stated that the principle of unity could only be decided later when the Southerners were grown up, by which time they would be in a position to decide whether to join the North or go to the Belgian Congo or Uganda.
The Chairman explained that people could not get up and go where they like just like that.
Given their history with each other, I'd have thought the Dinka and Nuer at least would have welcomed the idea of finally no longer having to share living space with their biggest rival.
You misunderstood the first comment I made on this matter. It was only Equatoria that would end up split between other countries, the rest would form two independent states, one with a Dinka majority and the other with a Nuer majority.And what makes them think they’d be happen if they’d be forced to live with other people from Kenya and Uganda?
You misunderstood the first comment I made on this matter. It was only Equatoria that would end up split between other countries, the rest would form two independent states, one with a Dinka majority and the other with a Nuer majority.
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Splitting South Sudan into smaller states doesn't seem very plausible given how mixed the various groups are. It would probably lead to massive ethnic cleansing and further conflict. I also am not sure that smaller Nuer and Dinka nation states would be economically viable.
I also realized the issue of giving South Sudan to Uganda: it's so massive that I seriously doubt many people there would actually want it. The only people who'd probably want it would be the Acholi and Bari people since their territory also covers Uganda. Force everyone to be under Uganda's rule and you'll get a recipe for civil war. And considering how big and vast South Sudan, Uganda's gonna give up much more quickly than Sudan did in OTL.
The most Uganda can achieve with relative ease would be having the areas occupied by the Bari and Acholi (and other territories occupied by other groups, but hey carving territories strictly on ethnic lines is almost impossible). Sudan and Ethiopia would also want certain bits where their fellow ethnicites live (next to them of course), and Kenya would want the Turkana region. But other than that, I can only envision South Sudan being independent. And of course that itself will have issues.
Well in OTL the local officials in Uganda weren't keen on absorbing South Sudan (I will need to look for the source again) because (if I am remembering correctly) they didn't think they had the capacity to govern both Uganda and southern Sudan. I've also read a source suggesting that in the mid 1940s the South Sudanese were more or less unanimous in not wishing to be attached to Uganda (although the transcript of the 1947 conference had one of the chiefs mentioning southern Sudan joining Uganda or even Belgian Congo in time, so he at least wasn't totally opposed to the idea).
For the OP to work where the South Sudanese at the 1947 Juba conference had pressed for joining Uganda it would have to be assumed that there was some prior POD which leads to the South Sudanese and Ugandan colonial officials being open to the idea of South Sudan being attached to Uganda. Perhaps a POD in the 1920s or early 1930s?
Highly doubt the South Sudanese would want any deal to join Uganda regardless. If they fought tooth and nail against Sudan, they'll fight tooth and nail against anyone else.
Well technically in the 1940s they fought tooth and nail to be reintegrate into Sudan.
The struggle against Sudan resulted from Sudanese discriminatory policies that are unlikely to be replicated by Uganda for various reasons. Uganda might still fall into civil war and South Sudan would be a battleground. But hard to say for certain that South Sudan would try to secede
But South Sudanese people during that time also felt that the British and Egyptians ignored their interests and were angry at lack of representation.
And if South Sudan becomes part of Uganda and Uganda falls into civil war, it'll be more likely that some groups will want to form their own independent nations.
Well in OTL the local officials in Uganda weren't keen on absorbing South Sudan (I will need to look for the source again) because (if I am remembering correctly) they didn't think they had the capacity to govern both Uganda and southern Sudan. I've also read a source suggesting that in the mid 1940s the South Sudanese were more or less unanimous in not wishing to be attached to Uganda (although the transcript of the 1947 conference had one of the chiefs mentioning southern Sudan joining Uganda or even Belgian Congo in time, so he at least wasn't totally opposed to the idea).
For the OP to work where the South Sudanese at the 1947 Juba conference had pressed for joining Uganda it would have to be assumed that there was some prior POD which leads to the South Sudanese and Ugandan colonial officials being open to the idea of South Sudan being attached to Uganda. Perhaps a POD in the 1920s or early 1930s?
But, didn't OP say that the South Sudanese delegates in the Juba Conference wanted an union with Uganda?
Sure. That's possible. Was just noting that the dynamics and policies in Uganda would be different so that secessionist sentiment may occur or it might be that the south Sudanese groups would be fighting on ideological grounds or for better treatment within Uganda. I think even early in Sudan's OTL civil war at least some South Sudanese rebel groups were fighting less for independence and more for autonomy and an end to discrimination
Honestly if Uganda were to inherit South Sudan, they would have to treat them as equals with an area that big. Wouldn't stop secessionist efforts, but it would be the most likely policy they'll go for.
Hell, if they were actually offered it, Uganda would have serious doubts about whether or not they want it. Would have to require serious government reconstructing by the British, and even that wouldn't solve some issues.