WI: Diem Doesn't Die

Wolfpaw

Banned
otherwise the US can just station a Marine armored battalion around Independence Palace. Things would get interesting, in the Chinese sense.
That would be very interesting. Do you think it at all plausible? I mean, if things get bad enough that an out-and-out Buddhist insurrection in response to the Ngo/Nhus' bigotry in the mid-60s, would the generals go ahead anyway, backing or no?

And were such an abortive coup launched and defeated by American Marines, what would some of the consequences be? Civil war in the RVN that would (presumably) be quickly won by the Buddhists due to their majority? If so what would the US response be?

Assuming that's all plausible, of course.
 
No, because the Catholics control the military, the few independent civil institutions, and have enough Buddhist allies to keep things under control. RVN often seemed like Pakistan IOTL- a military with a state. If you can get Dr. Phan Huy Quat, a highly respected Buddhist constitutional expert, as Diem's PM, then a Buddhist will be in charge of the domestic scene. The US can "persuade" Diem to do that using aid money as leverage, worst case scenario. Without the malign influence of his brother and sister-in-law he won't be as paranoid as he was IOTL. Put Cao Van Vien in charge as Army Chief of Staff or JCS chairman, Ngo Quang Troung in charge of IV Corps in the Mekong, and Le Minh Dao in reserve. Do Cao Tri, though thoroughly corrupt, is an excellent armored commander- "Patton of the Parrot's Beak." There is plenty of good talent at the top of ARVN and among the NCOs. The problem is below the divisional level from O-1 to O-6, and since those are the officers who interact with villagers, it ruins COIN because they are essentially Mafia-style extortionists in uniform. Thus leaving plenty of sympathy for VC wherever they go. Thieu should also get a senior HQ posting- he's better as a staff officer than a field commander, though reasonably competent in the field as well. Get rid of Ky, the Vietnamese Chavez (albeit a rightist) because he's extremely dangerous. Popular with the peasants but a thoroughly corrupt, incompetent, drug-smuggling genereal.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Well it sounds like getting rid of Nhus is the best way to preserve Diem. Now, as I dislike easy ways out (especially uncreative ones), I'm wary of having them die in a plane crash (unless this nearly happened OTL).

So what if the February 27 plot to murder the Ngos and Nhus was actually successful? My only reservations about this is that Diem might die too, though a wounded Diem may wind up being just as paranoid without his toxic relatives. I could perhaps see a purge of the RVNAF were this to happen, but then I always expect some sore of purge to take place when a dictator's involved ;)
 
VNAF's officers, excluding Ky, are good at what they do, but they need the equipment list I posted earlier. The problem with a purge there is that VNAF's officer corps are quite competent, more so than their Army counterparts, so he'd be replacing good people with (most likely incompetent) lackeys. IIRC the plane crash nearly did happen IOTL, except it was more of a JFK Jr.-style thing (spatial disorientation, pilot error) than a SAM battery. I'll have to double-check Karnow to be sure.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Okay, so now I'm wondering what in the world the situation in SVN would look like if Diem isn't overthrown, those bonkers in-laws are still around, and the persecution of Buddhists continues? What happens then?
 
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