WI: Dewey killed in train crash in September 1944

On September 19, 1944, the train carrying Republican nominee Thomas Dewey collided with a freight train stopped on the tracks outside of Portland, Oregon. The engineer was able to slow down before impact, limiting the damage. There were no fatalities, but there were some serious injuries. Dewey himself was struck by falling baggage, and his wife was thrown headfirst into the wall. What if the crash had been worse, and Dewey had been killed?

First of all, who replaces Dewey as the Republican nominee in 1944? At such a late stage in the campaign, how is this crisis handled by the party?

Assuming FDR beats Dewey's replacement, who is the frontrunner for 1948? Who succeeds Dewey as the candidate of the eastern establishment?
 
Stassen Defeats Truman would be a good headline to see. Stassen might not have done anything to J. Edgar, though...and wouldn't have been fighting the Mafia.

The problem is that in spite of Henry Wallace's candidacy, Truman *almost* defeated Dewey in New York--and I don't think that Stassen or any Republican other than Dewey could have won New York in 1948. And in those days New York was an Electoral College giant, with 47 votes (compared to 29 today). For why I doubt that Stassen could have made up for the loss of New York in the Midwest, see my post at https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=9288330&postcount=5
 
Last edited:
Interesting points, David T. I agree that Stassen's chances against Truman in '48 would probably not be better than Dewey's.

How would the loss of Dewey affect New York politics? Joe Hanley would succeed him, but Hanley was nearly seventy and not likely to use the governorship as a springboard to anything. Was there any ambitious and presidentiable politician whose career might have benefited from a Dewey vacuum?
 
Interesting points, David T. I agree that Stassen's chances against Truman in '48 would probably not be better than Dewey's.

How would the loss of Dewey affect New York politics? Joe Hanley would succeed him, but Hanley was nearly seventy and not likely to use the governorship as a springboard to anything. Was there any ambitious and presidentiable politician whose career might have benefited from a Dewey vacuum?

Maybe Irving Ives? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Ives
 
Would Dewey's absence make it easier for Taft to win the nomination in '48? For instance, if the eastern establishment lined up behind Stassen, and then Stassen imploded?
 
Would Dewey's absence make it easier for Taft to win the nomination in '48? For instance, if the eastern establishment lined up behind Stassen, and then Stassen imploded?

If Bricker is chosen to replace Dewey as GOP presidential candidate in 1944, and (as I suspect) loses rather badly, the party will be very reluctant to nominate another Ohio conservative in 1948.
 
But why on earth would they nominate Bricker? I would expect them to hold another convention and elect someone more palatable to the easterners.
 

Kingpoleon

Banned
But why on earth would they nominate Bricker? I would expect them to hold another convention and elect someone more palatable to the easterners.

Bricker was a charismatic and charming person who appealed to sympathy.

With this, he could coast to a narrow victory in the general.
 
But why on earth would they nominate Bricker? I would expect them to hold another convention and elect someone more palatable to the easterners.

In 1944, Bricker, though considered somewhat on the conservative side, did not have quite the extreme right-wing/isolationist reputation he later got through the Bricker Amendment. (Incidentally, in the late 1940's, he was to vote for both the Marshall Plan and the North Atlantic Treaty--in the latter case, differing from Taft.) He was known primarily as an affable and politically successful governor of a major state: "In 1938 he was elected Governor, Mr. Bricker became the state's first Republican to serve three consecutive gubernational terms. He attained national fame for transforming a $40 million deficit to a $75 million surplus in six years, despite increased budgets for education and welfare." http://www.nytimes.com/1986/03/23/o...republican-longtime-governor-and-senator.html

And Dewey in 1944 was considered a compromise, more-or-less centrist candidate, not the candidate of liberal internationalists--Willkie had that role. This is not to deny that even in 1944 there were ideological differences between Dewey and Bricker, but they should not be exaggerated.

Furthermore, in nominating Bricker as vice-president, the GOP had in effect said that he was fit to succeed Dewey if the latter were elected and died in office. So it would be hard for them to say he wasn't competent to become president, just because Dewey had died *before* the election.

All this is not necessarily to say that the Republican national committee (which I assume will make the choice) *will* choose Bricker, but I would not rule it out. My problem is that it's hard for me to see who they will choose instead. Warren had less than two years experience as governor, and might strike mainstream Republicans as too liberal. Stassen was pretty clearly waiting for 1948 (he had resigned the governorship of Minnesota and joined the Navy--probably figuring that in 1948, a veteran of the recent war would have a big advantage). Vandenberg had been at least as isolationist as Bricker before World War II, and was not to publicly repudiate isolationism until January 1945. I can't think of any easterners of Dewey's stature, except of course Willkie, who was obviously out for both political and health reasons.
 
Bricker was a charismatic and charming person who appealed to sympathy.

With this, he could coast to a narrow victory in the general.

He was affable, and one should not underestimate him, but I just can't see him winning the big states other than Ohio--which Dewey carried anyway. In particular, it will be hard for the Republicans to win without New York--and even Dewey didn't come really close to carrying it in 1944, and Bricker would undoubtedly do worse there. I think it's going to be very hard to overcome the "don't switch horses" sentiment in wartime.
 
In the 1948 election Vandenberg may be less reluctant and do better as there wouldn't be a Dewey around to stop, though not enough to overcome Stassen.
 
People keep overlooking Earl Warren, then-governor of California. In 1947, he was on the front cover of Life magazine as a decided possibility for the presidency. In Inside USA, John Gunther referred to Warren as possibly "a tolerable president of the United States", so there's some basis for this move. Team up Warren with an easterner (perhaps Massachusett's Saltonstall?) and you might have a duo that would give Truman a run for his money and possibly more...
 
Top