WI Democrats won Congress in the 1998 midterms?

Pericles

What if the Democrats won a majority in the House in the 1998 midterm elections? They did very well in the midterms, defying the 'six-year itch' to hold Republicans to 55 Senate seats and gain seats in the House. However, they failed to gain an outright majority in either house. What if the Democrats had done better and won control of the House? Here are the alternate results I made, with a 2% swing from Republicans to Democrats, so in total a 4% swing.
1998 House elections[1]
Dick Gephardt-Democratic: 217+11 49.3%
Newt Gingrich-Republican: 217-10 46.4%
435 seats
218 for majority

California 36: Janice Hahn(D) defeats Steven T Kuykendall(R)
California 49: Christine Kehoe(D) defeats incumbent Brian Bilbray(R)
Kentucky 3: Chris Gorman(D) defeats incumbent Ann Northup(R)
Louisiana 6: Marjorie McKeithen(D) defeats incumbent Richard Baker(R)
North Carolina 8: Mike Taylor(D) defeats Robin Hayes(R)
Pennsylvania 10: Patrick Casey(D) defeats Don Sherwood(R)

1998 Senate elections
Trent Lott-Republican: 53-2 44.8%
Tom Daschle-Democratic: 47+2 51.5%
100 seats
51 for majority

Illinois: Incumbent Carol Moseley Braun(D) defeats Peter Fitzgerald(R)
Kentucky: Scotty Baesler(D) defeats Jim Bunning(R)

1998 gubernatorial elections
Republican: 28-4
Democratic: 20+3
Independent: 1+1

Colorado: Gail Schoettler(D) defeats Bill Owens(R)
Illinois: Glenn Poshard(D) defeats George Ryan(R)
Massachusetts: Scott Harshbarger(D) defeats incumbent Paul Cellucci(R)

What would be the effects of these results? What PoD could make this happen? Would Bill Clinton still be impeached? The obstruction of justice charge would probably fail as it only passed 221-212 OTL, however unless Republicans dropped impeachment the perjury charge would still pass. Still, it is entirely possible they drop impeachment if they lose the House and may try to simply censure Clinton instead. What effect would this result have on the 2000 election? I think it could change Al Gore's strategy so he links himself closer to Clinton. Longer-term, this may have major butterflies on Mitt Romney's political career. What would be the effects of this result? What if?

[1]217x2=434. The one extra seat was held by Independent Congressman Bernie Sanders, and there's no way he would have supported a Republican majority, so he votes to make Gephardt Speaker.
 

ejpsan

The impeachment of President Clinton was passed in the previous congressional session and had to be resubmitted by the new congress for the Senate trial.

So if the Democrats win the house they would not have resubmitted the impeachment indictment and just let it die.

But also it was felt that the vote to impeach Clinton was a reaction to the OTL election results.
 

Pericles

Could Democrats just cancel impeachment? That plus the shock of losing Congress would probably keep it from going to the House and impeachment would die. How would this effect the rest of Clinton's presidency? Gore would probably link himself to Clinton TTL and win. Thoughts?
 
TimTurner

TimTurner

Pericles said:
Could Democrats just cancel impeachment? That plus the shock of losing Congress would probably keep it from going to the House and impeachment would die. How would this effect the rest of Clinton's presidency? Gore would probably link himself to Clinton TTL and win. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Dems probably also get to gerrymander more House seats IOTL. Colorado is one state which Dems could pass a new map that creates a new seat that is certain to elect a Democrat.
 

Don Corleone

TimTurner said:
Dems probably also get to gerrymander more House seats IOTL. Colorado is one state which Dems could pass a new map that creates a new seat that is certain to elect a Democrat.
Click to expand...

The state legislatures do that after the 2000 census.

1999-2000 doesn't look all that different in terms of policy. You have split control of Congress instead of R Congress/D President so legislation still has to be bipartisan.

Lott and Daschle were both crooks, but they were mature adults when it came to passing legislation, unlike McConnell and Schumer/Reid, and were willing to work across the aisle. That's how we got CHIP, the ban on drive through deliveries, the DMCA, etc, before the POD.

We still get the Glass-Steagall repeal. Alleged genius Larry Summers advised the Democrats that it was a good idea.

Politically, the impeachment and acquittal weren't bad for Clinton. Popular opinion was on his side, so the 1998 election results won't affect that. Gore still distances himself from Clinton.
 

Pericles

Perhaps the Democrats pass the proportional voting initiative in Colorado before it actually becomes competitive for them at the presidential level?
 
TimTurner

TimTurner

Pericles said:
Perhaps the Democrats pass the proportional voting initiative in Colorado before it actually becomes competitive for them at the presidential level?
Click to expand...
I think it would still lose, for the same reasons it did in OTL, just the defeat gets pushed up a few years.
 
TimTurner

TimTurner

Landmass Wave said:
The state legislatures do that after the 2000 census.

1999-2000 doesn't look all that different in terms of policy. You have split control of Congress instead of R Congress/D President so legislation still has to be bipartisan.

Lott and Daschle were both crooks, but they were mature adults when it came to passing legislation, unlike McConnell and Schumer/Reid, and were willing to work across the aisle. That's how we got CHIP, the ban on drive through deliveries, the DMCA, etc, before the POD.

We still get the Glass-Steagall repeal. Alleged genius Larry Summers advised the Democrats that it was a good idea.

Politically, the impeachment and acquittal weren't bad for Clinton. Popular opinion was on his side, so the 1998 election results won't affect that. Gore still distances himself from Clinton.
Click to expand...
I am working from the assumption that Dems would have more sway in redistricting thanks to them having more governors mansions and more state legislatures post-2000. If 1998 is better for Democrats on congressional level and in gubernatorials, it's a good bet that they'd do better in state legislatures too. And most Dem legislators first elected in 1998 are likely to win again in 2000.

I agree with you wholely re: Lott and Daschle working together in the Senate.
I think, however, the situation would be different if Dems took the house. Gore might think that people were so supportive of President Clinton they voted out the R house majority on the issue of impeachment, and find no need to distance himself.
 

Pericles

TimTurner said:
I think it would still lose, for the same reasons it did in OTL, just the defeat gets pushed up a few years.
Click to expand...

Republicans would probably still oppose it so it would likely lose. Democrats may use their better position at the state level to try and improve their position.
 
TimTurner

TimTurner

Pericles said:
Republicans would probably still oppose it so it would likely lose. Democrats may use their better position at the state level to try and improve their position.
Click to expand...
Remember the other side of the dilemma that eventually will set in, is, Dems might decide to drop it completely as an issue if they feel they can win the state. I mean Gore could win CO in 2000 by a decent margin.
 

Pericles

TimTurner said:
The best route to a Dem Senate majority post-1998 is reversing some of the R 1996 Senate wins+flipping GA 1998+MO 1998.
Click to expand...

If Democrats just make the gains they made IOTL in 2000 they will end up with a Senate majority but a stronger Gores campaign would probably mean even more gains so they could be just under 55 seats as they unseat the class of 1994.
 

Pericles

Landmass Wave said:
Wouldn't take much.

Daschle ended up being majority leader anyway. That leaves 6 House seats and 600 votes in Florida.
Click to expand...


Gore would campaign on the Clinton legacy and win comfortably. Gephardt already has a 1-seat majority but would probably make it bigger and safer. Democrats would unseat the class of 1994 in the Senate.
 
TimTurner

TimTurner

Pericles said:
If Democrats just make the gains they made IOTL in 2000 they will end up with a Senate majority but a stronger Gores campaign would probably mean even more gains so they could be just under 55 seats as they unseat the class of 1994.
Click to expand...
True, but I was speaking about if you wanted Dems to control the Senate in 1999. If Republicans have a 53-47 advantage, then Lotte is guaranteed to be Senate Majority Leader. A 50-50 tie (or even more seats for Dems post-1998) is definitely possible; but looking at the '98 map, it's more realistic flipping one or more of the results of the '96 Senate races.
 

Ryan98174

Pericles said:
What if the Democrats won a majority in the House in the 1998 midterm elections? They did very well in the midterms, defying the 'six-year itch' to hold Republicans to 55 Senate seats and gain seats in the House. However, they failed to gain an outright majority in either house. What if the Democrats had done better and won control of the House? Here are the alternate results I made, with a 2% swing from Republicans to Democrats, so in total a 4% swing.
1998 House elections[1]
Dick Gephardt-Democratic: 217+11 49.3%
Newt Gingrich-Republican: 217-10 46.4%
435 seats
218 for majority

California 36: Janice Hahn(D) defeats Steven T Kuykendall(R)
California 49: Christine Kehoe(D) defeats incumbent Brian Bilbray(R)
Kentucky 3: Chris Gorman(D) defeats incumbent Ann Northup(R)
Louisiana 6: Marjorie McKeithen(D) defeats incumbent Richard Baker(R)
North Carolina 8: Mike Taylor(D) defeats Robin Hayes(R)
Pennsylvania 10: Patrick Casey(D) defeats Don Sherwood(R)

1998 Senate elections
Trent Lott-Republican: 53-2 44.8%
Tom Daschle-Democratic: 47+2 51.5%
100 seats
51 for majority

Illinois: Incumbent Carol Moseley Braun(D) defeats Peter Fitzgerald(R)
Kentucky: Scotty Baesler(D) defeats Jim Bunning(R)

1998 gubernatorial elections
Republican: 28-4
Democratic: 20+3
Independent: 1+1

Colorado: Gail Schoettler(D) defeats Bill Owens(R)
Illinois: Glenn Poshard(D) defeats George Ryan(R)
Massachusetts: Scott Harshbarger(D) defeats incumbent Paul Cellucci(R)

What would be the effects of these results? What PoD could make this happen? Would Bill Clinton still be impeached? The obstruction of justice charge would probably fail as it only passed 221-212 OTL, however unless Republicans dropped impeachment the perjury charge would still pass. Still, it is entirely possible they drop impeachment if they lose the House and may try to simply censure Clinton instead. What effect would this result have on the 2000 election? I think it could change Al Gore's strategy so he links himself closer to Clinton. Longer-term, this may have major butterflies on Mitt Romney's political career. What would be the effects of this result? What if?

[1]217x2=434. The one extra seat was held by Independent Congressman Bernie Sanders, and there's no way he would have supported a Republican majority, so he votes to make Gephardt Speaker.
Click to expand...
I know i’m late, but I had a similar idea. In my alternate hypothetical, Democrats end up winning 222 seats (including Bernie who’s an independent). However, I wondered what if Democrats also took the senate back in a massive upset?
I had Baesler and Moseley Braun winning, but I also included the following candidates winning senate races they lost in the OTL.
Michael Coles (Georgia)
Jay Nixon (Missouri)
Mary Boyle (Ohio)

Now sure, Clinton would still be acquitted presuming a trial would continue when Republicans still controlled congress before the next session began. While a stretch, I think it would have been more symbolic if Democrats flipped the House and Senate in the 1998 cycle than just flipping the House of Representatives.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top