I was reading a fairly interesting article on Gingrich lately, one which claimed that he nearly cost the Republicans the House in 1996, and that the Republican Majority was only saved by allegations of campaign impropriety on the part of the Clinton administration. That wondering what might have happened had the Democrats done ever so slightly better in the congressional race. Looking at the record, there were a surprising amount of fairly narrow Republican wins, victories in which the Republican candidate won by about 1-2 percent of the vote, a very close margin by the standards of Congressional elections. If the Democrats won all of these close races, if I have the tally correct, they would have had eight additional seats in the House, and consequently, the Republicans would have had eight less. The result is that the Republicans would have a majority of 220 to the Democrats 214.
I know doing better in House elections is difficult, and what I'm proposing probably needs a hundred little points of divergence to work, but for the moment let's say the Democrats manage to pick up those eight additional seats.
What impact, if any, does this outcome have on Bill Clinton's second term, and afterward? Does this force Newt out faster? Would Clinton still be impeached? Going by the math, the President would probably avoid one charge, obstruction of Justice. But the perjury allegation would still pass. But than again, the altered result may so have changed the dynamic as to make any ideas about that untenable.