WI Democrat Wilson vs. Republican Rooseevelt 1912

Hi All!
I am Light Star and this is my first idea for a timeline. I really need a plausibility check here. I was also hoping to get help information and tips on resources I could use to write such a timeline. What does everyone think? Could this be both an interesting and plausible timeline?
 
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If Roosevelt kept his mouth shut and didn't offend Taft, Taft would likely have been willing to step aside for Roosevelt. Add in the possibilty of the Supreme Court for Taft to sweeten the pot. Wilson is likely to lose.
 
@David T posted about this on the old soc.history.what-if group, but the conventional wisdom by observers at the time in fact was that the GOP's internal divisions (which predated TR's run), the poor economy, and fatigue with 16 years of GOP rule made a Democratic victory likely. Democrats took Congress by a wide margin in 1910, and in 1912, Democratic candidates for Congress, most of whom were in one-on-one races against either Republicans or TR Progressives, won handily.

Obviously, it's possible that had Taft stepped aside, the GOP would have been less divided. But while TR may have run better than Taft, the Democratic trend that year would at best of have made for a close race.
 
If Taft just gives up in 1911 and lets TR get the nomination without much of a struggle, that would be one thing. But for some indication that if Roosevelt won the nomination after a bitter fight (which is a much more likely scenario than "Taft yields peacefully") he would lose many Taft supporters in November, we may look to California, where TR's running mate, Governor Hiram Johnson, got the Republican ballot line for TR, and Taft was off the ballot completely. "Refusing to run a write-in campaign, fifteen Republican county committees and forty Republican newspapers endorsed Wilson." David Sarasohn, The Party of Reform, p. 151. In a state not carried by a Democrat since 1894, and where Taft had defeated Bryan in 1908 by 22.5 points https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1908 TR in 1912 only won by 174 votes! (And Wilson actually got two of the state's thirteen electors.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1912
 
Roosevelt's Votes + Taft's Votes (though there would be variations in alternate scenarios):

7,608,963
50.6%

Woodrow Wilson's OTL Votes:

6,296,284
41.8%
 
Prior to Wilson, there are classical progressives in both parties. After him, we see much more fiscally conservative Republicans (Harding, Coolige, Hoover…) and more progressive Democrats (such as FDR). I imagine in a world with another TR presidency in the place of Wilson’s Presidency, you see the Republicans become more solidly progressive while anti-progressives become more Democrat, meaning that Republicans today would be the more progressive party.
 
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