ivanotter said:
I believe that Italy depended on German coal and oil. Would that be exported?
What has Italy got Germany wants?
ivanotter said:
That will put a spanner in the works for Allied invasion of France.


I'm not seeing the connection.
ivanotter said:
Greece will be an interesting one.
That's a genuine understatement. Does Winston still insist on sending aid? Or does he allow Wavell to destroy Italian forces in Africa? TTL, there will be no
DAK, not with Germany fully committed in SU.

(Which means Rommel will be a comparative nobody...unless he gets promoted as von Manstein & Co get fired.

)
This also means Singapore is probably better defended, with more Brit troops. And it means New Guinea is, too, with more Aussies free, so MO & Kokoda Track are either impacted; Kokoda, if it's more/less as OTL, will be a fiasco for Japan.
One less-known factor: what is Britain doing meantime? OTL, North Africa was the only place the British Army was fighting Germans... Does this see a scaling up of Bomber Command? (It's the easiest & quickest thing to do.)
Another: this probably means Black (revealled as blown by Enigma reading Rommel's signals) is still considered secure.
With Britain not actively engaged against Germany, does Japan perceive her as weaker? Or does Britain, with somewhat more manpower at hand, respond more vigorously in Asia? (Does that put Monty in Burma, safely away from anything really harmful to British interests?

)
lukedalton said:
plus no Taranto as example

That hoary old myth needs to be put to rest. It's not like the Japanese were total idiots.
Yes, Taranto may be better defended; it's also likely the exact OTL circumstances that led to Judgement being a one-CV attack don't obtain TTL, & it balances out.
jmc247 said:
The campaign in Russia might start a week or two earlier

That old myth should be put to rest, too. Germany was delayed more by weather than the Greek campaign.
jmc247 said:
forces Germany OTL devoted to Africa and defending the Balkans after the campaign there were far from meager. The Africa Korps was far from a full Army Group at the time, but it had a full Army Groups worth of trucks to supply it. The DAK also had 1/6th the German Air Force at the time devoted to it.
Diversion of airpower, in particular against Malta, was the big issue. TTL, this gives
Luftwaffe in the East options to strike Sov oil production not available OTL. This could paralyze Red Army mobility, without needing to actually take the Don-Volga Bridge, or have Hitler be tempted by Stalingrad, at all.
It also means tactical air recce is more plentiful, which is good for German attacks.

(Bad for the Red Army, which is screwed six ways from Sunday already.

)
AdA said:
Trucks are like money. It's allways better to have more
Not if you can't provide fuel, a perennial German headache.

In that case, they become targets for Il-2s.
Rich Rostrom said:
If there is no ground engagement of Axis forces anywhere, Stalin is much more likely to believe the reports of German forces massing on Soviet borders.
Very good call.
OTOH, Stalin was trying to buy time until the Red Army was more ready. (Not least, more T-34s.) So, does he still delude himself?
jmc247 said:
The far bigger fight between Hitler and Rommel would come in December of 1941 when the Panzer rush in Russia has ended and Rommel has a chance to notice there are SS death squads going around behind his lines mass shooting innocent people. I could imagine a few ways that would go... most of them that would end badly for Rommel.
That's for sure.
One important thing: if Italy doesn't join the Germans, it moves up the date for invading France about a year. There's no Italian campaign, so all the shipping tied up fighting it is used instead to build up for Neptune...which goes off with the Atlantic Wall much less nearer completion, & much, much less effective, without Rommel. Plus, without Rommel & the desert experience, German reaction to Allied air is much more conventional & less effective.
This is very, very good for the postwar world...

