WI Defensive strategy on the eastern front WW 1?

We all know about Russia's performance in World War I. Part of that was caused by lacking equipment, low industrial production and a rather poor railway net which led to problematic logistics, but there was also the issue of bad leadership and commitment to allies. The German army was simply much better in its doctrines, but also its equipment and training. Any offensive by the Russians against them was suicidal even if they were successful. In the event of a 'success' like the Brusilov Offensive, still many men were lost, mostly because German intelligence often knew when and where they would strike since Russia didn't use encrypted messages when using radios. And then there were other problems as well. Yet, Russia kept attacking because the French and British asked them so that pressure on the western front would be relieved.

Suppose Russia gets a sane, competent army leader who realizes that the Russian army going on the offensive equals a shooting gallery for the Germans and basically says 'screw this'. He goes to a totally defensive posture and uses scorched earth tactics against the Germans while pulling them into Russia's great strategic depth which was precisely what German commanders feared. We'll assume that he can convince Nicholas II by using the example set by Napoleon. In the meantime, he only launches limited counteroffensives while the German army follows him to Moscow and the Volga, enormously overstretching itself and outrunning its supply lines. Since Russia's infrastructure is crap, the German army bogs down due to a nightmarish logistical situation. Of course the Heer will try to live of the land, mostly Ukrainian grain, but as the need grows, less is left to the people --> guerrilla war. Basically Russia pulls an 1812 on Germany.

Could this happen? Was there such a commander in Russia? If so, how do we get him in charge during or before 1914? What would the effect be on Germany? This will probably sap German strength more than any large scale Russian offensive IMHO. How would the war proceed after Russia inflicts a defeat somewhere before Moscow and Germany is forced to retreat in the winter?

Thoughts? Ideas? Suggestions?
 
My first thought is, if there is no aggressive Russia in the East, then Hindenburg/Ludendorff don't get sent to the Eastern Front. Perhaps more importantly, several front-line German divisions don't get transferred to the East as a response to the Russian invasion of East Prussia (the transferred units, as a result, were not in place in time to impact the outcome in East Prussia, and somewhat significantly weakened the West at critical junction).

Secondly, we don't see massive Austro-Hungarian losses in 1915-1916, perhaps strengthening the Hapsburg monarchy there, but certainly providing more troops to concentrate against Italy.

Personally, if Russia had been content to stay on the defensive, odds are, Germany and Austria-Hungary would have, too.
 
Top