WI: decisive Spanish victory in the Dutch Revolt

[Otto Kretschmer]

What if the Spanish won decisively quickly, recaptured all of Netherlands and ended the war after a few years?

Of course lots of Ptotestants would emigrste to England, Poland and other parts of Europe

 

[pompejus]

It would probably cause a mass exodus of protestants to England, Scotland, Scandinavia and Germany, whic include the loss of a lot of capital (since many protestants were rich merchants). I assume it would take the Netherlands a century or so to recover that loss (we saw something similar in Flanders and Brabant after the protestants fled those areas when the Spanish recaptured it). I think the countries the Dutch would flee too would profit from it significantly (just like with the Hugenots).

Without the Netherlands as a counterweight, I suspect the French would be easily get the Rhineborder after the collapse of Spain (which is unavoidable, I suspect). France would probably be able to dominate the continent, or at least western parts (basicly what is now France, the Benelux, Germany and Denmark) and would probably the strongest country in Europe.

Colonial wise, I think Portugal, England and France would take over the spot of the Dutch. Although none will be as succesful as the VOC was in its highdays.

Without the Netherlands several economic and financial changes would be made a lot later. You basicly needed a country like the Netherlands for it to happen.COuntries like France, England and Scandinavia simply weren't as free as the Dutch republic in that regard and in those countries it was still the nobility that ruled supreme instead of the wealthy middle class, like in the Netherlands.

 

[kasumigenx]

It would probably cause a mass exodus of protestants to England, Scotland, Scandinavia and Germany, whic include the loss of a lot of capital (since many protestants were rich merchants). I assume it would take the Netherlands a century or so to recover that loss (we saw something similar in Flanders and Brabant after the protestants fled those areas when the Spanish recaptured it). I think the countries the Dutch would flee too would profit from it significantly (just like with the Hugenots).

Without the Netherlands as a counterweight, I suspect the French would be easily get the Rhineborder after the collapse of Spain (which is unavoidable, I suspect). France would probably be able to dominate the continent, or at least western parts (basicly what is now France, the Benelux, Germany and Denmark) and would probably the strongest country in Europe.

Colonial wise, I think Portugal, England and France would take over the spot of the Dutch. Although none will be as succesful as the VOC was in its highdays.

Without the Netherlands several economic and financial changes would be made a lot later. You basicly needed a country like the Netherlands for it to happen.COuntries like France, England and Scandinavia simply weren't as free as the Dutch republic in that regard and in those countries it was still the nobility that ruled supreme instead of the wealthy middle class, like in the Netherlands.

Perhaps Venice.

 

[pompejus]

Perhaps Venice.

Yeah possibly (assuming you mean the financial and economic changes and not stopping France getting the Rhineborder. I doubt Venice could do that). There were a lot of similarities between northern Italy and the low countries.

 

[NedStark]

Perhaps Venice.

The lack of the Dutch Republic would not butterfly away Venice's OTL decline, which was caused by another set of factors.

 

[kasumigenx]

Yeah possibly (assuming you mean the financial and economic changes and not stopping France getting the Rhineborder. I doubt Venice could do that). There were a lot of similarities between northern Italy and the low countries.

I think Genoa can fill Netherland's rule.

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

I think Genoa can fill Netherland's rule.

Except Genoa was also declining...all of the Italian merchant Republics were in decline for the fact that the Mediterranean just wasn't as major a focus in terms of trade anymore. While either country could make the economic and financial changes that the Netherlands did had they existed in such a scenario, it is...unknown whether or not it would sell well given that both countries would not wield the political influence the Netherlands had here.

Moreover, the Genoese would make for a worse check on France's ambitions of setting the border on the Rhine River than the Netherlands did IOTL, as I think Genoa had a smaller population, and I'm sure that any top military commanders, were they to exist, that could prevent French incursions into Italy, and even then it would be inconsequential when the focus would be on the Rhine and Low Countries anyway.

All in all, whatever wank given to Spain in a Spanish victory would be negligible, compared to the boon it would give major Protestant nations (moreso Great Britain and Scandinavia) as well as France should Spain eventually fall apart.

 

[kasumigenx]

Except Genoa was also declining...all of the Italian merchant Republics were in decline for the fact that the Mediterranean just wasn't as major a focus in terms of trade anymore. While either country could make the economic and financial changes that the Netherlands did had they existed in such a scenario, it is...unknown whether or not it would sell well given that both countries would not wield the political influence the Netherlands had here.

Moreover, the Genoese would make for a worse check on France's ambitions of setting the border on the Rhine River than the Netherlands did IOTL, as I think Genoa had a smaller population, and I'm sure that any top military commanders, were they to exist, that could prevent French incursions into Italy, and even then it would be inconsequential when the focus would be on the Rhine and Low Countries anyway.

All in all, whatever wank given to Spain in a Spanish victory would be negligible, compared to the boon it would give major Protestant nations (moreso Great Britain and Scandinavia) as well as France should Spain eventually fall apart.

Perhaps the Hansa could take their place instead.

 

[Osman Aga]

Perhaps Venice.

What reason does Venice has to to replace the Dutch? Their ambition was in the Mediterranean. Either losing all their lands outside Italy or the Ottomans agreeing to an early Suez Canal were Venice plays a role could be a trigger. There will be a shorter route to India, not paying the Middle men but paying for lower passage costs through the Canal for 99 years or so?

 

[Fabius Maximus]

I think England would be the most likely country to develop the sorts of institutions which the Dutch pioneered IOTL, given that England was quite a mercantile nation by this point. It would probably take them at least a few decades longer compared to OTL's Dutch, though.

 

[pompejus]

Perhaps the Hansa could take their place instead.

Noone can obviously complete take the place of the Dutch republic. The Dutch republic was unique*. I do believe that the days of the Hansa were more or less over in the 16th century (although I am not too well versed in Hansaic history), but lets say it makes a comeback because of the ending of the Dutch revolt (it would not surprise me if a significant number of Dutch flee to hansaic cities for example). Even then the Hansa could never take the same place as the Dutch republic. For one thing, the hansa never truely was a single country and it never had the intention of becoming one country. It was simply a bunch more or less independent of cities trying to cooperate in trade. So the hansa could never become a counterweight to France. It could not become a rival of England. It would not become a major power withing Europe. I dont think the Hansa would be able to colonise large swats of Asia and the Americas. It would not be able to found something like the VOC. It is simply too small and disunified for something like that and it would never even have the ambition to do something like that.

What it could do is something else. One of the major accomplishment of the Dutch republic was the prominence of the Dutch urban middle/upper class (or bourgeoisie, or the third estate, or the burghers or whatever you want to call it). Basicly the Dutch republic was not ruled by the (high) nobility, but by commoners from the cities. And it was possible (at least in the early parts of the republic) that anyone (assuming you were the right kind of protestant) was able to get a high office. Someone like admiral Michiel de Ruyter was certainly not high born. Within the VOC many very highly placed people were born as orphans. Tha was unique in Europe. In places like England and France only people from the nobility could gain that much power, although it obviously changed slowly in early modern times, but the Netherlands was first. This is something the Hansa could accomplish. The Dutch Republic was a beacon of freedom in those days (well, comlpared to the rest of Europe in those days, not compared to today obviously), there was economic freedom, political freedom, even freedom of religion (in all three cases compared to other countries of the time, not with today). And that kind of freedom brought economic and financial innovation. This too is something the Hansa could accomplish, or at least the north German cities; especialy if Dutch protestants (often merchants) would flee towards those cities and bring Dutch values with them. That said, I don't think the Hansa would have the diplomatic and cultural cloud to export those values, as what happened with the Dutch republic. That said, if the hansa (or northern Germany) were relatively succesful, merchants from those cities could still export it to England, or the Scandinavian countries, etc.


*To be fair, all countries are unique in some way. But if you compare the Dutch republic to the other countries in Europe it was very different than all other countries.

 

[alexmilman]

Perhaps the Hansa could take their place instead.

Hansa was on its way down as well. On the Baltic it kept being squeezed by Denmark and Sweden and elsewhere its business was shrinking by the time of the Dutch Revolt: the Dutch merchants aggressively challenged the Hansa and met with much success. Hanseatic cities in Prussia, Livonia, supported the Dutch against the core cities of the Hansa in northern Germany. After several naval wars between Burgundy and the Hanseatic fleets, Amsterdam gained the position of leading port for Polish and Baltic grain from the late 15th century onwards. Getting that business back would be quite difficult.

Besides, I’m not sure that underlying premise of a massive exodus after defeated revolt is something inevitable. Of course, the Duke of Alba was a fanatic but with his draconian methods he did not achieve too much and was followed by much more pragmatic Duke of Parma. Spain simply did not have resources to win using purely genocidal and exclusively military methods so the “decisive victory” could be achieved only by combination of the military and political components, in other words by some compromise providing accommodation for the Protestants. Then, it is quite possible that most of the Protestant population would rather convert to Catholicism then flee the country losing their property and business. In Spain the big numbers of the Jews and Moors preferred to convert (how sincerely is besides the point) rather then to leave the country. In France by the time of Edict of Fontainebleau most of the Protestants already converted (assessment of the remaining is between 200 and 900K). Notice that in both these cases majority of the population was strongly against the persecuted minorities. In the countries with less intolerant public opinion counter-Reformation often was relatively successful without major crippling exodus: by the time of the 30YW the Hapsburgs had significant Protestant population in their hereditary lands and in Hungary.

 

[M79]

Let's say Alkmaar and Brielle go differently, the latter is easy as the Dutch were literally about to leave the city after sacking it anyway. Assuming the Duke of Alba mops up resistance and stays as governor for a few more years, Spain has more tax money and fewer raging fires to put out. It might also make England a more attractive target to Spain soon thereafter. New World riches will continue to flow into Habsburg coffers and seems less likely to go to economic development as to further attempts at suppressing Protestantism. Without the Dutch Republic to worry about, and if the possessions in the Mediterranean are still in good stead, perhaps the Spanish decide to follow up on Lepanto in force or push harder into Germany/HRE. France may also become a tempting target under the circumstances as well.

 

[pompejus]

Besides, I’m not sure that underlying premise of a massive exodus after defeated revolt is something inevitable. Of course, the Duke of Alba was a fanatic but with his draconian methods he did not achieve too much and was followed by much more pragmatic Duke of Parma. Spain simply did not have resources to win using purely genocidal and exclusively military methods so the “decisive victory” could be achieved only by combination of the military and political components, in other words by some compromise providing accommodation for the Protestants. Then, it is quite possible that most of the Protestant population would rather convert to Catholicism then flee the country losing their property and business. In Spain the big numbers of the Jews and Moors preferred to convert (how sincerely is besides the point) rather then to leave the country. In France by the time of Edict of Fontainebleau most of the Protestants already converted (assessment of the remaining is between 200 and 900K). Notice that in both these cases majority of the population was strongly against the persecuted minorities. In the countries with less intolerant public opinion counter-Reformation often was relatively successful without major crippling exodus: by the time of the 30YW the Hapsburgs had significant Protestant population in their hereditary lands and in Hungary.

If we look at what happened in the cities of Flanders after they were recaptured by the Spanish, the people basicly got the choice of convert back to catholisism, leave, or burn as a heritic. Those cities lost sometimes more than 1/3 of the population, which fled north to Amsterdam and other cities in Holland (which caused Amsterdam to become the most important city in the Netherlands). Because of this I believe there will be a mass exodus.

 

[alexmilman]

If we look at what happened in the cities of Flanders after they were recaptured by the Spanish, the people basicly got the choice of convert back to catholisism, leave, or burn as a heritic. Those cities lost sometimes more than 1/3 of the population, which fled north to Amsterdam and other cities in Holland (which caused Amsterdam to become the most important city in the Netherlands). Because of this I believe there will be a mass exodus.

It is one thing to flee to another province and another one is to flee to a different country. Besides, you are seemingly missing my point: with the forces and resources he had Alba could not realistically conquer and held all Dutch provinces so the fast Spanish victory could be achieved by combination of the military and political means, aka by a meaningful accommodation of the Protestants.

 

[JanWellem]

I wonder what the repercussions of the entire Netherlands in Spanish / Catholic hands would be if there still was a 30 Years' War ITTL. Could the Catholic forces achieve a decisive enough victory to stamp out Protestantism in all of the HRE like they did in Bohemia IOTL?

 

[pompejus]

It is one thing to flee to another province and another one is to flee to a different country.

Actualy, quite a lot of them fled to England, France and Germany at first. Them being kicked out of England and than capturing Den Briel was basicly the first victory of the Dutch revolt.

Besides, you are seemingly missing my point: with the forces and resources he had Alba could not realistically conquer and held all Dutch provinces so the fast Spanish victory could be achieved by combination of the military and political means, aka by a meaningful accommodation of the Protestants.

I can't seem to see Philip II in any way accepting protestants. He was quite a hardline catholic.

I wonder what the repercussions of the entire Netherlands in Spanish / Catholic hands would be if there still was a 30 Years' War ITTL. Could the Catholic forces achieve a decisive enough victory to stamp out Protestantism in all of the HRE like they did in Bohemia IOTL?

There obviously would not be a 30 year war. Since the Netherlands was quite influencial in the start of the 30 year war. that said, some confrontation between the catholics and protestants in the HRE would be unavoidable. But Spain controling all of the Netherlands would give the Habsburg a significant advantage. First it would be easier to attack northern Germany from such a stronghold, secondly Spain would not be distracted by fighting the last part 80 year war in the endstages of the 30 year war.

That said, it could also lead to more people distrusting Habsburg power, thus more people taking side against them. Especialy France could be included earlier.

 

[alexmilman]

I can't seem to see Philip II in any way accepting protestants. He was quite a hardline catholic.

Phillip was a dedicated Catholic but there was a big gap between what he wanted and what he could do. He did not have resources to crush the Dutch rebellion fast (as per OP) using exclusively the military means and repressions. Alba could take few cities but he could not effectively garrison a big part of the region simply because he did not have enough troops. Neither could Parma and Spinola after him. So we either have to assume a more pragmatic Spanish approach to the issue or the idea starts drifting too close to ASBs area.

 

[pompejus]

Phillip was a dedicated Catholic but there was a big gap between what he wanted and what he could do. He did not have resources to crush the Dutch rebellion fast (as per OP) using exclusively the military means and repressions. Alba could take few cities but he could not effectively garrison a big part of the region simply because he did not have enough troops. Neither could Parma and Spinola after him. So we either have to assume a more pragmatic Spanish approach to the issue or the idea starts drifting too close to ASBs area.

If you put it that way, I can see where you are coming from. That said, I think it might be even more ASB for Philip II to accept protestantism, than for him to quickly beat the Dutch revolt (assuming you don't consider a victory in 20-30 years or so fast, which i think should be possible for Spain).

 

[M79]

Phillip may try to take Lorraine then Genoa to link former Lotharingia contiguously. France is then the next likely target starting with Occitania, then perhaps England. He probably doean't have the resources to do it himself but he could put himself in a position to restore the European portions of the Western Roman Empire.