WI: Decisive anti-Muslim victories at Yarmouk and/or al-Qādisiyyah

BlueThunder25

Gone Fishin'
Two of the most important battles in Muslim expansion were the Battles of Yarmouk and al-Qādisiyyah. What if the opponents had won these battles instead?
  • A: Romans annihilate the Rashidun at Yarmouk, including killing all major commanders such as al-Walid.
  • B: The Sassanians destroy the Rashidun force at al-Qādisiyyah, killing all major commanders including Caliph Umar.
  • C: Both A and B happen.
I am most interested in B since it is not discussed often, but I thought the discussion could be enlarged if other possibilities regarding early Islam were added as well.
 
It would I think greatly damage the confidence of the Muslim Arabs.

Islam grew stronger and more resolute in every victory, every successful raid, every land incorporated into the Dar al-Islam.

With these defeats the Arab armies might begin to desert and mutiny, the faith that Allah would lead them to victory might falter.

However the Byzantines and Sassanids both were exhausted from their previous war and the arabs freshly united and inspired.

If both A and B occur the Arabs will disperse and go back to their previous life styles, some perhaps even most might revert to paganism.

Islam I think will survive but it will spread a long different vector and take a lot longer to become a religion of prominence
 
How dependant was the early Rashidun Caliphate on continuous victory?
I'm under the impression that Umar and Khalid Al-Walid could still justify a defeat at Yarmouk by claiming that the byzantines were too strong or that the time was not yet right.
The sassanians were still weary and unstable in the 640's, so i still expect the muslims to conquer the region in one way or another.
 
How dependant was the early Rashidun Caliphate on continuous victory?
I'm under the impression that Umar and Khalid Al-Walid could still justify a defeat at Yarmouk by claiming that the byzantines were too strong or that the time was not yet right.
The sassanians were still weary and unstable in the 640's, so i still expect the muslims to conquer the region in one way or another.
If the Sassanids could reconsolidate quickly(they'd have a limited window to do so) and they both give the Arabs decisive crushing defeats that would take a lot of the wind out of Islam's sails.

If the Arabs get off lightly or suffer moderate defeats they are more likely to recuperate.
 
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