Sorry for that!
OK, so I might've phrased it wrong, America passes the Dawes Plan, but JP Morgan and the rest of wall street refuse to loan money to Germany. TTL Dawes Plan for the most part keeps the other 4 points of the plan. ....
Ah, you refer to the english
wiki-site about the Dawes-plan with its 5 "main points".
Well, ... you know Al Bundy ? ... "Married ... with Children" ? ... : " ... you can't have the one withourt the - oooother"
On topic this means : no loan/money -> no Dawes-plan at all.
-> continuing (?) Ruhr-occupation
-> "Ruhr-fight" restarts with much lesser "passive resitance", as the goverment won't be able to control the Freikorps anymore. as the ending of the "Ruhr-kampf" has brought ... nothing
-> Freikorps will become even more prominent in Germany proper
-> big "boost" for the militarists
-> siding of militarists/Freikorps with communist (?) against a commion enemy : the imperialistic, Germany humilitating Entent-powers (they won't ask the "ordinary" people for their opinion).
-> "republican" goverment will loose controll over considerable parts of Germany and
-> at some point the Reichswehr/Seeckt will not "protect" the republicans anymore - by opposition to the republican course as well as not being able to control all the Freicorps and communist militias while at the same time harrasses and hindered by the Entente dearmament demands.
-> no central german goverment -> no reparations and no "partner" to deal with for the Entente powers
-> no reparations-payments restarting -> no more serving the US-loans by at least France
The only sensible and IMO probable way in this scenario for the Entente to get a "partner" to deal with in Germany (
beside the often here "beloved" full occupation of Germany with all the accompanying, ongoing, neverending bloodshed) would be to accept a more or less ultra-"conservative" aka authoritarian miltary emergency-goverment, a military-police state.