WI: Dawes Plan rejected.

Redcoat

Banned
I was reading The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, when it mentioned that for a short while from '25-'29, Germany was doing better thanks to the Dawes Plan and American loans. What if the Dawes Plan was rejected right away, leaving Germany unable to pay off debts?
 
Germany would be even more badly effected by the Great Depression, and I'd imagine that the Nazis (presuming they get into power) would get into power a couple of years earlier than in OTL.
 

Redcoat

Banned
Germany would be even more badly effected by the Great Depression, and I'd imagine that the Nazis (presuming they get into power) would get into power a couple of years earlier than in OTL.
They won't, the lull that the Dawes Plan brought allowed them to build up to the point they were the 9th biggest party. I do want to know if they can still take power in the South, or fuck it there could be a civil war.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
I was reading The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, when it mentioned that for a short while from '25-'29, Germany was doing better thanks to the Dawes Plan and American loans. What if the Dawes Plan was rejected right away, leaving Germany unable to pay off debts?
By whom ??

The USA ?
They initiateted it.

Germany ?
The Dawes plan was in essence what the germans/Rathenau asked for from early 1922 onwards :
  • reduced overall reparations (from 132 [iirc] to 132 billion Goldmarks)
  • reduced rates at least at the beginning
  • loans to get the german economy restarted
Britain ?
They strongly supported the USA in their Dawes-scheme for :
- drawing them back into european affairs
- being less than "lukewarm" towards the french already before the Ruhr-occupation of january 1923. They were already on the "cause" for, the vote of the reparation commiteee to "blame" germanyx in december 1922​

France ?
The USA had them by their balls for their HUGE own debt towards the USA



However :
No Dawes-plan => no further reparation-payments => an even extended Ruhr-occupation by France alone against everybodyelse' thoughts (Britain, USA) ? => another chaos in 1924 with civil war etc ??
 
Most likely the conditions could be made a little less favorable to Germany leading Germany to reject it. For hope of something better and a touch of irrational sentiments.
I Think the Nazi and communist parties could gather much further support, and that Germany would be a favored coalition partner on the right. For them to take power we need to keep the sentiments boiling for a few more years untill they capitalize on the support. You would see escalating violence and a guess support for the communist by SU. A new authoritarian government who could rapidly restere order by accepting the Daves plan seems a possibility. This does not have to be the Nazi’s. Interesting POD.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Would be nice to answer the questions about your OP
  • rejected by whom ?
  • rejected when ?
  • how does the Dawes-plan of TTL looks like ?
  • what has changed from OTL ?
  • something that also shows, that you know at least marginally what you/we're talking about
before bumping ... without adding any new content.
 

Redcoat

Banned
Would be nice to answer the questions about your OP
  • rejected by whom ?
  • rejected when ?
  • how does the Dawes-plan of TTL looks like ?
  • what has changed from OTL ?
Sorry for that!
OK, so I might've phrased it wrong, America passes the Dawes Plan, but JP Morgan and the rest of wall street refuse to loan money to Germany. TTL Dawes Plan for the most part keeps the other 4 points of the plan. What has changed from OTL is that while OTL Weimar got 4 years of relative peace and stability (what with industry back up again, unemployment lower, etc.) separating the hyperinflation of the early 20s and the Great Depression later in the 30s, there's none of that, and Germany does not recover much at all. That's basically what I'm asking about. What you answered with before was fine, I'm just wondering if you can elaborate a bit. How would another possible civil war even work out? What I do know is that this won't just be the Nazis coming into power earlier because IIRC, the Nazis used this four year period to reach all of Germany, and so won't be ready in this scenario to take power. So knowing that, what might happen in a scenario like this?
 
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NoMommsen

Donor
Sorry for that!
OK, so I might've phrased it wrong, America passes the Dawes Plan, but JP Morgan and the rest of wall street refuse to loan money to Germany. TTL Dawes Plan for the most part keeps the other 4 points of the plan. ....
Ah, you refer to the english wiki-site about the Dawes-plan with its 5 "main points".

Well, ... you know Al Bundy ? ... "Married ... with Children" ? ... : " ... you can't have the one withourt the - oooother" :biggrin:

On topic this means : no loan/money -> no Dawes-plan at all.

-> continuing (?) Ruhr-occupation
-> "Ruhr-fight" restarts with much lesser "passive resitance", as the goverment won't be able to control the Freikorps anymore. as the ending of the "Ruhr-kampf" has brought ... nothing
-> Freikorps will become even more prominent in Germany proper
-> big "boost" for the militarists
-> siding of militarists/Freikorps with communist (?) against a commion enemy : the imperialistic, Germany humilitating Entent-powers (they won't ask the "ordinary" people for their opinion).
-> "republican" goverment will loose controll over considerable parts of Germany and
-> at some point the Reichswehr/Seeckt will not "protect" the republicans anymore - by opposition to the republican course as well as not being able to control all the Freicorps and communist militias while at the same time harrasses and hindered by the Entente dearmament demands.
-> no central german goverment -> no reparations and no "partner" to deal with for the Entente powers
-> no reparations-payments restarting -> no more serving the US-loans by at least France

The only sensible and IMO probable way in this scenario for the Entente to get a "partner" to deal with in Germany (beside the often here "beloved" full occupation of Germany with all the accompanying, ongoing, neverending bloodshed) would be to accept a more or less ultra-"conservative" aka authoritarian miltary emergency-goverment, a military-police state.
 

Redcoat

Banned
-> siding of militarists/Freikorps with communist (?) against a commion enemy : the imperialistic, Germany humilitating Entent-powers (they won't ask the "ordinary" people for their opinion).
AFAIK they're not in the position to fight the Entente much. And a Freikorp-communist alliance is surprising!

Will the Entente be mad at the U.S. for this?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
AFAIK they're not in the position to fight the Entente much.
You assume a "regular" war between "regular" militaries, a kind of continuation of the just finished war ... you're wrong.
Assume something like the russian civil war only between french Poiluos and ... well almost every man capable carrying a weapon in germany. "Asymetric warfare"

And a Freikorp-communist alliance is surprising!
First :
The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Second :
Remember the "August-experience" of 1914 : "Burgfrieden" in Germnay , "Union sacre" in France, even the russian revolutionaries made a several years long pause in Russia due to an :
external enemy.


Will the Entente be mad at the U.S. for this?
The Brits maybe but lesser "mad" than dissapointed, as they favored such a solution already before January 1923 (but didn't had the money and ability to "convince" the french). Though they are not in a positin to do much.
The french/Poincarè might - at the first moment - be happy about and might try to continue or even extend their occupation policy. ... which in the longer run won't do them any good IMO.

Pls don't forget : IOTL it were the Brits and (especially) the USA, who (almost) forced the french to accept the Dawes-Plan.
 
With Chaos inside Germany and no reparations payments France doesn't occupy the Rhineland and Ruhr, it annexes them and faces a permanent insurgency with no help from its former allies.
 
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