WI: Davis Won?

What if David Davis became leader of the Conservative Party in 2005, would he have kept the Tories on the Thatcherite right? Would Blair feel more inclined to stay on with another potentially un-electable Tory Leader? Who would win the 2010/09 General Election?
 
I'd say that over the shorter term, Davis has a harder time than Cameron; he won't have the whole 'hug a hoodie/husky' phase that helped to decontaminate the Tory brand, so I'd imagine the Conservatives do worse in the polls up until, oh, say 2007 or so. I'd still expect Blair to stand down somewhen about the same time as OTL, and Brown might well call an early election, without the poll scare of OTL.

If he does, I'd expect a narrow Labour majority. If he doesn't, I'd say Davis does better through the second half of that Parliament than Cameron: he has a gravitas that Cameron lacks and is immune to the 'posh boy' attack that was perhaps Cameron's primary weakness. If the Parliament goes full-term, I'd expect a narrow-to-moderate Conservative majority in 2009/2010.
 
I'd say that over the shorter term, Davis has a harder time than Cameron; he won't have the whole 'hug a hoodie/husky' phase that helped to decontaminate the Tory brand, so I'd imagine the Conservatives do worse in the polls up until, oh, say 2007 or so. I'd still expect Blair to stand down somewhen about the same time as OTL, and Brown might well call an early election, without the poll scare of OTL.

If he does, I'd expect a narrow Labour majority. If he doesn't, I'd say Davis does better through the second half of that Parliament than Cameron: he has a gravitas that Cameron lacks and is immune to the 'posh boy' attack that was perhaps Cameron's primary weakness. If the Parliament goes full-term, I'd expect a narrow-to-moderate Conservative majority in 2009/2010.

I think that's a pretty reasonable suggestion for how things might play out. I can see Davis including a commitment to an In/Out EU referendum in a 2010 manifesto, which would, if Lord Pearson's pre-election comments are to be believed, neutralise the UKIP threat in key Conservative marginals. Davis would probably campaign as rather more of a libertarian than Cameron did, too. Expect much less focus on green issues, and I can't see a Davis-led Conservative Party taking the lead on gay marriage.

As for the top team of the Conservative frontbench, who goes where? Cameron and Fox will be accommodated with fairly meaty roles, but I can see a demotion for Osborne, and perhaps no comeback at all for Hague, certainly not in 2005. Perhaps Cameron will shadow the Home Office, Fox will be Shadow Foreign Secretary, and maybe Philip Hammond as Shadow Chancellor? Hague might return in about 2007 to take over a department like Business. Theresa May will stay in the Shadow Cabinet in some role- will Michael Gove make it?

Also, here's a thought- David Davis voted against the tuition fee increase in 2010, iirc. What might Conservative Party policy be on this issue?
 
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