WI: Davis beat Cameron?

So let's say Davis has a much better speech at conference and the momentum carries him forward to defeat David Cameron in the 2005 Conservative Party leadership election. What sort of party do we see under him? Who might have been in his shadow cabinet? And what would their electoral prospects have been?
 
We'd probably see fewer Tories voting UKIP in 2010 (not that there were many...) but at the same time fewer small-l liberals voting Tory. A slightly less successful performance overall as a result, and a Lib-Con pact would probably be out of the question. Minority government? Confidence and supply? Another election?
 
We'd probably see fewer Tories voting UKIP in 2010 (not that there were many...) but at the same time fewer small-l liberals voting Tory. A slightly less successful performance overall as a result, and a Lib-Con pact would probably be out of the question. Minority government? Confidence and supply? Another election?

I think Brown might even be able to pull it off, Davis has some pretty distinct views on issues, which could gain him some populist votes but lose him a lot of liberal conservatives.
 
I think Brown might even be able to pull it off, Davis has some pretty distinct views on issues, which could gain him some populist votes but lose him a lot of liberal conservatives.

On the other hand, Davis' commitment to the issue of civil liberties should win him votes from the liberal bloc quite easily, and whilst I can't see him actively flaunting it, I suspect the party's remaining old school views on, say, Section 28, will disappear. I could be wrong, but I seem to remember Davis, unlike Cameron, voted for repeal. In addition to this, Davis hasn't got the curse of the "toff" background hanging around him.

On the negative side though, the fact he has been a frontbencher for some time, and lacks Cameron's youth and freshness may well enable Labour to continue to characterise their opponents as "same old Tories".

It could go either way, I think. Davis has very different strengths and weaknesses to Cameron. I suspect though, the UKIP vote would be much smaller, and Labour's inability to paint him as a toff would probably net Davis a small majority against Brown.
 
On the other hand, Davis' commitment to the issue of civil liberties should win him votes from the liberal bloc quite easily, and whilst I can't see him actively flaunting it, I suspect the party's remaining old school views on, say, Section 28, will disappear. I could be wrong, but I seem to remember Davis, unlike Cameron, voted for repeal. In addition to this, Davis hasn't got the curse of the "toff" background hanging around him.

On the negative side though, the fact he has been a frontbencher for some time, and lacks Cameron's youth and freshness may well enable Labour to continue to characterise their opponents as "same old Tories".

It could go either way, I think. Davis has very different strengths and weaknesses to Cameron. I suspect though, the UKIP vote would be much smaller, and Labour's inability to paint him as a toff would probably net Davis a small majority against Brown.

I wouldn't say majority but maybe one or two sears short that could be fixed with a deal with the DUP.

Davis might pull off some populism to negate some of the Cuts backlash and he might try and make a no-fees increase at the cost of foreign aid to steal student votes but that's just my idea. I'd say Tory losses in local elections but nothing too serious, two digit, but US relations may be damaged if certain views on Bush came out.
 
On the other hand, Davis' commitment to the issue of civil liberties should win him votes from the liberal bloc quite easily, and whilst I can't see him actively flaunting it, I suspect the party's remaining old school views on, say, Section 28, will disappear. I could be wrong, but I seem to remember Davis, unlike Cameron, voted for repeal.

Can't remember off the top of my head, but given that Iain Dale (the gay Conservative blogger and activist) was Davis's chief of staff for a while and Davis was happy to go to Dale's civil partnership ceremony, I think it's safe to say that whatever other faults Davis may have had a reactionary attitude to gay rights wasn't one of them. Incidentally, if Davis does win, does this mean that Dale's path towards a safe Conservative seat is smoothed in the ATL?
 
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