WI: David Davis becomes Leader of the Conservatives in 2005

(For the record, I assume this isn't current politics, but if it is, then I will request it to be moved)

As it says on the tin, what would be the impact of David Davis succeeding Michael Howard as leader of the Conservatives in 2005? Perhaps David Cameron never entered the race, and instead endorsed Ken Clarke, who Davis would then defeat in the membership ballot, or Davis simply gave a better, more enthusiastic speech at the Party Conference.

Anyhow, what would the impact of a Davis-led Conservative Party be?
 
Buy Prime Minister Boris and other things that never happened.

That has a whole chapter on a Davis led Conservative Party
 
He would probably not enjoy a similar bounce that Cameron got from his building up his image as a moderniser in the early part of his leadership. Maybe the Tories poll numbers are worse when Brown takes over, and he calls a snap election. Davis wasn't a great campaigner, I can see him bridging the gap somewhat, but Labour would still probably win with a smaller majority. Davis is ousted, and Cameron makes a second run at the leadership, and probably ends up facing Fox or someone.

Alternatively, if the parliament runs through until 2010, Davis might end up outperforming Cameron, if he is able to present himself as the more serious figure that the country needs in tough times. His euro-scepticism, personality, and background would mean he would be better able to appeal to those constituencies Cameron traditionally struggled with. Maybe he wins a small majority or has enough support to govern with the support of the DUP for a time.

A Davis led government would probably be more sceptical of the EU from the get go, so maybe the Tories would follow through and grant a referendum on Lisbon in this TL, which would probably be rejected by the voters. I don't know where Britain's relationship with the EU would go from there. Another interesting thought is what happens with civil liberties. Davis was famously wary of increased government surveillance powers, I wonder if that might make for some tensions within the cabinet and become a bit of a stick for his opponents to beat him over the head with.

I could also see Cameron becoming a major figure as a Tory alternative if he ran in 2005, given that he was only really putting himself forward to lay down a marker for future contests, he still would come out of 2005 looking pretty good, and would still be thought of PM material, much in the way David Miliband was in the Brown era.
 
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