WI Daschle Wins In 2004?

Hi guys,

In 2004, Senater Tom Daschle lost his reelection bid to the US Senate, becoming the first party "leader" to do so since 1952.

His defeat was by no means a sure thing though, as he was leading for much of 2004. My question is, what if Daschle managed to pull it off?

First of all, how effective is Daschle as Minority Leader from 2005-7 (and presumerably majority leader post 2007)?

How does Daschle's 2004 victory effect presidencial politics? For a start, I heard that some of his staff went on to work with (the then Senata-elect) Obama, as Daschle's departure coinsided with Obama's election. Does this make Obama's 2008 run less likely (or at least weaker)? Does Daschle himself decide to run for president in 2008 in these circumstances? Who's the most likely Dem nominee for president in 2008 if Daschle holds onto his seat in 2004?
 
This is an interesting POD. As leader of the Democratic minority in the Senate, Daschle balanced between obstructing the Bush Administration and Republicans on some issues (namely court nominees), while being quite cooperative on others (foreign and economic policy). You can expect a similar approach from 2005-2007. Daschle will still hug the base on Social Security in the face of Bush's attempt at privatization, while working with the White House on immigration. But the actual fate of major legislation won't be affected too much. The divisions within the Republican Party that have manifested in recent years (far-right vs. center-right) were already brewing, and they would have still sabotaged immigration reform and other areas of agreement between the President and Congressional Democrats. The War in Iraq and the scandal's afflicting the Bush Administration and Republican's in Congress will put the Democrats in the majority in both chambers. As majority leader, Daschle takes many of the same steps Reid did to attack the administration sometimes and taking necessary steps to prevent national calamity (TARP) in others.

The two biggest changes will come with Daschle's public persona and Barack Obama. For all of his parliamentary skills, Harry Reid hasn't been an effective spokesman for the Democratic Party. Daschle was much more comfortable in front of the camera and will help further the party brand. This could come in handy with the Democrats in the majority in Congress. On the Obama front, Daschle would probably take the role of mentor for the freshman Senator, teaching him the ins-and-outs of the Senate. But without many of Daschle's top staffers (namely Pete Rouse, the 101st Senator), Obama may not be in a spot to run in 2008. Then again, maybe Daschle encourages him to run in the same way Reid and Durbin did. Either way, Obama will have more insider knowledge than IOTL.
 
Hi guys,

In 2004, Senater Tom Daschle lost his reelection bid to the US Senate, becoming the first party "leader" to do so since 1952.


That's an interesting fact. In a timeline I am doing of the future I was thinking of having both McConnell and Reid lose their reelection bids (McConnell in 2014 and Reid in 2016).
 
You know what? Daschle/Warner '08 sounds pretty interesting!

genusmap.php


Tom Daschle / Mark Warner (Democrat)
John McCain / Lamar Alexander (Republican)

But a Daschle landslide in '08 means a Romney landslide in 2012!

genusmap.php


Mitt Romney / Sarah Palin (Republican)
Tom Daschle / Mark Warner (Democrat)
 
Daschle come up, Daschle come down. You can't explain that.

If Daschle runs in '08 instead of Obama, I think he will win by a larger margin because more Republicans will be willing to vote for him and he can win states such as Missouri, Montana, the Dakotas and the Southern border states that went for Clinton in '92 and '96.

However, the economy will be much worse off with Daschle in the White House than Obama (which in my opinion is terrible) and since he does not have the youth, charm, charisma and oratory skills, he will lose big to his Republican challenger which will be Romney no matter what.
 
And 2016!

genusmap.php


Mitt Romney / Sarah Palin (Republican)
Mark Warner / Amy Klobuchar (Democrat)

The Democrats have a tendency to eat the losers, so if Warner's on a losing ticket, it's exceptionally unlikely for him to be the standard-bearer in the following election. You're honestly a lot more likely to see Barack Obama nominated in this 2016 than Mark Warner.
 
The Democrats have a tendency to eat the losers, so if Warner's on a losing ticket, it's exceptionally unlikely for him to be the standard-bearer in the following election. You're honestly a lot more likely to see Barack Obama nominated in this 2016 than Mark Warner.

True but remember Mondale was Carter's vice-president...
 
True but remember Mondale was Carter's vice-president...

More reason why Warner wouldn't get a look. We all remember how well Mondale did in his election.

Though I guess a lot would depend on how the Daschle presidency is regarded four years later. But since you have Romney winning reelection, I've got to think Daschle is still perceived as a bad, one-term president who was overwhelmed by his situation (similar to Carter & H.W. Bush).
 
Please don't double-post or derail the thread with largely baseless FH speculation.

This is an interesting POD. As leader of the Democratic minority in the Senate, Daschle balanced between obstructing the Bush Administration and Republicans on some issues (namely court nominees), while being quite cooperative on others (foreign and economic policy). You can expect a similar approach from 2005-2007. Daschle will still hug the base on Social Security in the face of Bush's attempt at privatization, while working with the White House on immigration. But the actual fate of major legislation won't be affected too much. The divisions within the Republican Party that have manifested in recent years (far-right vs. center-right) were already brewing, and they would have still sabotaged immigration reform and other areas of agreement between the President and Congressional Democrats. The War in Iraq and the scandal's afflicting the Bush Administration and Republican's in Congress will put the Democrats in the majority in both chambers. As majority leader, Daschle takes many of the same steps Reid did to attack the administration sometimes and taking necessary steps to prevent national calamity (TARP) in others.

The two biggest changes will come with Daschle's public persona and Barack Obama. For all of his parliamentary skills, Harry Reid hasn't been an effective spokesman for the Democratic Party. Daschle was much more comfortable in front of the camera and will help further the party brand. This could come in handy with the Democrats in the majority in Congress. On the Obama front, Daschle would probably take the role of mentor for the freshman Senator, teaching him the ins-and-outs of the Senate. But without many of Daschle's top staffers (namely Pete Rouse, the 101st Senator), Obama may not be in a spot to run in 2008. Then again, maybe Daschle encourages him to run in the same way Reid and Durbin did. Either way, Obama will have more insider knowledge than IOTL.

Not only will Daschle be more effective than Reid, but, all other things being equal, there will be a filibuster-proof majority for the Democrats for 2 years instead of 13 weeks. The impact of this will be huge, starting with a larger stimulus bill because there's no need to appease Susan Collins. Additionally, Daschle was more willing to veer left than Reid. Hell, he might push Obama for a larger stimulus, and use reconciliation to force it through. And needless to say, universal healthcare was a pet issue of his. I could see the ACA happening a lot quicker.

Hmm, does a Tea Party candidate pop in 2010 for Senate Majority Leader Daschle?
 
I pretty much agree with hcallega's assessment. Daschle was much better in the role of Democratic leader than Reid and that probably leads to the Democrats being more effective in the Senate. The speculation on Obama is interesting and it is a fair question if he decides to run or not due to the butterflies. Regardless of who the Democratic nominee in '08 is, they'll probably get a larger stimulus and have an easier time with legislation in general.

Assuming the Tea Party or a similar group still emerges, Daschle will almost certainly be a target. It's possible he could lose in '10, but then again you could have a situation like with Reid, where the GOP nominates a complete loon and Daschle manages to squeak by. If he wins, the Democrats continue to have a forceful leader in the Senate.

I highly doubt Daschle runs for President as Emperor Charles V suggests. I figure he'd stick to the Senate. Assuming for arguments sake he did though, I fail to see how Daschle would automatically lose in '12. More likely, Daschle would be able to get even more done than Obama due to his experience with the Senate. The safer assumption is Daschle wins reelection by a fairly comfortably margin.
 
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