WI: Darnley dies prior to marrying the Queen of Scots

So, in early (April?) 1565 Henry Stuart, Lord Darnley, fell ill with measles. Mary Queen of Scots famously nursed him back to health and they married shortly thereafter. Said marriage turned out to be very short and very calamitous.

What if he had died?

Lets assume Mary does not go into some depressive grief spiral that ruins her fragile health and causes her to die. Though Mary might go into mourning for a while.

What happens next, marriage wise? Foreign or domestic?

There's England- Elizabeth obviously took a keen interest in Mary's marriage IOTL. She had suggested Bob Dudley but I doubt that would ever happen- both because Mary would be reluctant to marry a Protestant of relatively lowly stock and I doubt Elizabeth would want to see Dudley go north to Scotland permanently. The rumours surrounding Dudley (wife-murdering, sexual relations with Elizabeth, etc.) would likely also prove an impediment. There's also the fact that Dudley himself wasn't too keen on the idea. Norfolk's name as a potential husband obviously came up later, but that was in radically different circumstances.

Anyhow, without the Darnley marriage relations betwixt England and Scotland stay friendly (for a bit longer, at least).

On the foreign front- she'd considered Don Carlos, but he's had his fall and is unmarriageable by this point. Would the Imperial Habsburgs be interested? None of Emperor Max's kids are the right age (his eldest son Rudolf was born in 1552), but his brother Charles is, being born in 1540.

This Charles persistently courted Elizabeth IOTL (and this process was ongoing at the time Darnley dies ITTL) which implies a willingness to relocate to the British Isles (but England is a far greater prize than Scotland). The wiki says Mary's uncle the Cardinal of Lorraine urged her to do this IOTL, but Mary disagreed and Max was lukewarm on the idea.

Am I right in thinking that Elizabeth, being sensitive to such things, would be pissed if Charles ''spurned'' her to marry Mary?

Domestically, who is there? James Hamilton was suggested but he's crazy by this point (though his younger brother John is floating about). Is any domestic match likely to cause unrest because the lords will be disgruntled by one of their number being elevated to the kingship?

Much depends on who she marries, but how much can the lack of the Darnley marriage stabilise Mary's reign? I presume religion will still be a big issue? At minimum, she doesn't have a son whom she can be deposed in favour of.
 
Elizabeth constantly held out the bait to Mary that if she (Elizabeth) had the say on her choice of husband then she would publicly confirm Mary's rights to succeed her - of course Elizabeth never intended to do such a thing. I would expect the English council and Elizabeth to constantly throw problems in Mary's way - a foreign match suggestion will suddenly find Elizabeth once again contemplating matrimony after all she is a much better catch at this point.
Mary's problem is that none of the foreign powers were that keen whilst Elizabeth was still in the market - the ones that might have been were not high enough after all she had been Queen Consort of France anyone to low would be a step-down in status - I think the likeliest is that she falls for someone at her court and marry's them in haste to repent at leisure as she did with Darnley - John Hamilton isn't a bad choice in otl he didn't marry till the late 70s probably because it wasn't till then he managed to get control of his brother's estates (after he was declared mad) - he was technically third in line to the throne after his father and mad brother - and at this point they were loyal to Mary (the family's religion was always rather open) he might help heal Mary's fall out with her Catholic Lords at the period as his sister was married to a Huntley.
 
I think the likeliest is that she falls for someone at her court and marry's them in haste to repent at leisure as she did with Darnley - John Hamilton isn't a bad choice in otl he didn't marry till the late 70s probably because it wasn't till then he managed to get control of his brother's estates (after he was declared mad) - he was technically third in line to the throne after his father and mad brother - and at this point they were loyal to Mary (the family's religion was always rather open) he might help heal Mary's fall out with her Catholic Lords at the period as his sister was married to a Huntley.

Mmm. What would the fallout from a Hamilton marriage be?

Would Bothwell try anything? With more loyalty to Mary amongst the lords (or at least less open rebellion, for the time being) I suppose he'll have less room for maneuver and less ability grow close to Mary. I suppose it depends whether you fall into the ''Mary was in love with Bothwell and complicit in her own abduction'' or the ''Bothwell kidnapped, raped and forcibly married Mary and Mary was reluctant to get a divorce because she feared for the legitimacy of her unborn children'' camp.

Also, what would Mary's relations with her half-brother Moray be like? Does the lack of a Darnley marriage keep them on good terms indefinitely or will religion still cause a rift?

I suppose there might still be issues around David Rizzio?
 
Mmm. What would the fallout from a Hamilton marriage be?

Would Bothwell try anything? With more loyalty to Mary amongst the lords (or at least less open rebellion, for the time being) I suppose he'll have less room for maneuver and less ability grow close to Mary. I suppose it depends whether you fall into the ''Mary was in love with Bothwell and complicit in her own abduction'' or the ''Bothwell kidnapped, raped and forcibly married Mary and Mary was reluctant to get a divorce because she feared for the legitimacy of her unborn children'' camp.

Also, what would Mary's relations with her half-brother Moray be like? Does the lack of a Darnley marriage keep them on good terms indefinitely or will religion still cause a rift?

I suppose there might still be issues around David Rizzio?

On the Bothwell situation, I always took it as the later. Her lack of any sort of affectionate talk about him throughout her life and the lack of any sort of genuine evidence of a romantic relationship makes me slow to believe that Mary was not forced into that marriage. Plus, Bothwell had a terrible reputation in terms of women and, being all about that "strong violent man" thing, probably thought nothing of going as far to abduct women. As long as Mary has a husband she's interested in at court, then she should be fine. He was, ultimately, kind of a coward in those types of situations.

Moray probably has slightly less power than OTL if anyone remotely competent marries Mary, or about the same if she marries another moron. Mary never seems to have cared about the religious part, and for his part it wasn't until later that he got pissy over it. I could see them lasting much longer in a happy relationship of friendliness, but eventually he will want to bring her into the Protestant fold, which Mary will not be receptive to.

David Rizzio most likely sits as an annoyance and a joke, but not much of a threat. Darnley had a vendetta against him for whatever reason, but I could see him simply lasting around a Hamilton (or other) court much longer ITL without Darnley.
 
On the Bothwell situation, I always took it as the later. Her lack of any sort of affectionate talk about him throughout her life and the lack of any sort of genuine evidence of a romantic relationship makes me slow to believe that Mary was not forced into that marriage. Plus, Bothwell had a terrible reputation in terms of women and, being all about that "strong violent man" thing, probably thought nothing of going as far to abduct women. As long as Mary has a husband she's interested in at court, then she should be fine. He was, ultimately, kind of a coward in those types of situations.

Yeah, I'm inclined the same way with regards to the Bothwell marriage (but that could just be because I'm a cynical bastard lacking the slightest shred of romanticism).

Would Matthew Stewart 4th Earl of Lennox (Darnley's father) cause trouble in the event of a Hamilton marriage?- he had obviously fought against Regent Arran during the 1540s, and his father the 3rd Earl of Lennox had been murdered by Regent Arrans bastard brother. Or would he just keep his head down and/or slink back to England?

What do we think a 'natural' lifespan for Mary would be? She made it to 44 IOTL, and that was with 20 years of stress- and depression-inducing imprisonment. But her health was frail, even prior to that. How detrimental would repetitive childbearing wear be to her health (or even kill her outright)?

Now, as to the English succession- the English will be implacably opposed to a Catholic candidate, and Mary will certainly raise her son that way. Our James VI Hamilton will also have a somewhat weaker claim to the English throne because he lacks Darnley blood.

But if Mary dies 10-20 years before Elizabeth (in 1583-93, with Mary dying between the age of 40 and 50), and James VI converts during that time (either out of genuine belief, or the fact that he hopes to attain the English throne, or that Protestantism is just the way the wind is blowing in Scotland) does he have a chance? Or would the English be sceptical of someone who had only converted to Protestantism recently, as an adult (in contrast to OTL James VI Stuart, who was raised Protestant)?

The English's other options include

1) Darnley's younger brother Charles Stuart Earl of Lennox (if butterflies give him a longer life) or his kids (if he has any);
2) Catherine Grey's kids Edward and Thomas Seymour (who were of doubtful legitimacy);
3) Ferdinando Stanley 5th Earl of Derby (if he lives past 1594 ITTL) or his kids or his brother William.
4) The Hastings Earls of Huntingdon (as descendants of George Duke of Clarence- Henry 3rd Earl was apparently considered when Elizabeth was ill in 1562). But the Hastings always seemed a long shot.

All of whom could marry differently and have different kids.
 
1) Yeah, I'm inclined the same way with regards to the Bothwell marriage (but that could just be because I'm a cynical bastard lacking the slightest shred of romanticism).

2) Would Matthew Stewart 4th Earl of Lennox (Darnley's father) cause trouble in the event of a Hamilton marriage?- he had obviously fought against Regent Arran during the 1540s, and his father the 3rd Earl of Lennox had been murdered by Regent Arrans bastard brother. Or would he just keep his head down and/or slink back to England?

3) What do we think a 'natural' lifespan for Mary would be? She made it to 44 IOTL, and that was with 20 years of stress- and depression-inducing imprisonment. But her health was frail, even prior to that. How detrimental would repetitive childbearing wear be to her health (or even kill her outright)?

4) Now, as to the English succession- the English will be implacably opposed to a Catholic candidate, and Mary will certainly raise her son that way. Our James VI Hamilton will also have a somewhat weaker claim to the English throne because he lacks Darnley blood.

But if Mary dies 10-20 years before Elizabeth (in 1583-93, with Mary dying between the age of 40 and 50), and James VI converts during that time (either out of genuine belief, or the fact that he hopes to attain the English throne, or that Protestantism is just the way the wind is blowing in Scotland) does he have a chance? Or would the English be sceptical of someone who had only converted to Protestantism recently, as an adult (in contrast to OTL James VI Stuart, who was raised Protestant)?

The English's other options include

1) Darnley's younger brother Charles Stuart Earl of Lennox (if butterflies give him a longer life) or his kids (if he has any);
2) Catherine Grey's kids Edward and Thomas Seymour (who were of doubtful legitimacy);
3) Ferdinando Stanley 5th Earl of Derby (if he lives past 1594 ITTL) or his kids or his brother William.
4) The Hastings Earls of Huntingdon (as descendants of George Duke of Clarence- Henry 3rd Earl was apparently considered when Elizabeth was ill in 1562). But the Hastings always seemed a long shot.

All of whom could marry differently and have different kids.

1) The Bothwell/Mary relationship as a romance just doesn't work tbh. And I'm pretty much always more inclined to look for romance in those types of relationships. Mary could find good in Darnley after some time had passed, but never could for Bothwell. That says a lot as to how their marriage was like.

2) Oh Matthew Stewart will definitely try. He's gonna be mad another Scottish Lord is getting up in the royal family, and if Mary publicly states the Hamilton family is her heirs if she and hubby don't have kids, then he's gonna get pissy. But he'll probably get pissy from England, and make wild accusations, maybe even claim that the Queen of Scots killed his son because she feared he'd make a better King. And his wife will definitely aid him.

3) Mary seems to have been majorly healthy most of the time. Remember, many of her health issues in captivity were the direct result of being cloistered in and unable to exercise regularly, which caused her to gain weight rapidly and suffer neck and back pains. I could see a free Mary easily passing her 60's. She seems to be the type, physically, that would have stayed fairly svelte and healthy well into her 40s and 50s, if given the ability to ride and exercise. And on the pregnancy thing, we have to look at her two known pregnancies. She had no major health scares with James and was back in action pretty quickly afterwards. And the miscarriage of her twins came only as a result of major stress, and even then she quickly recovered. I'd say she would have quite easily handled up to 6/7 pregnancies with ease. She fell into hysterical illnesses more often than not, but each seems to have been more mental than physical. It would be more likely she'd eventually either have some form of mental breakdown or major panic attack than a physical ailment.

4) Mary will raise her son Catholic, but will also vouch for her form of tolerance, particularly if her husband remains pretty apathetic on the subject. Major Protestants will rebel against the Scottish Succession, but I doubt anyone else would stick. The only one who came close OTL was Arabella Stuart, who was completely uninterested in the throne and more interested in getting married.
 
So I've got an idea of how this could all go down. Mary, having her freedom, stays healthy and actually outlives Elizabeth by about two years, thus becoming Mary II of England. John Hamilton doesn't seem to have been bad at politics, so Scotland stays pretty stable, although there'll be the obvious and expected Lennox rumblings and the the requisite religious issues, most likely ignored throughout her reign. Mary will try again and again to ally Frenchwards, but might be forced to have her son marry away from there, if the opportunity does arise. So here's a family tree:

Mary I of England and Scotland (b.1542: d.1605) m. John Hamilton, King Consort of England and Scotland (b.1535: d.1604) (a)

1a) James I of England and VI of Scotland (b.1567: d.1619) m. Marie de' Medici (b.1575: d.1642) (a)

1a) Mary Hamilton (b.1596)

2a) John Hamilton, Prince of Wales (b.1599: d.1612)

3a) James II of England, VII of Scotland (b.1601)

4a) Eleanor Hamilton (b.1603: d.1604)

5a) Alexander Hamilton, Duke of York (b.1606)

6a) Margaret Hamilton (b.1609)

7a) William Hamilton, Duke of Clarence (b.1611: d.1615)

8a) Stillborn Son (c.1614)

9a) Louisa Hamilton (b.1617)​

2a) John Hamilton, Duke of Albany (b.1569: d.1616) m. Antoinette of Lorraine (b.1568: d.1610) (a)

3a) Margaret Hamilton (b.1570: d.1571)

4a) Alexander Hamilton, 1st Duke of Ross (b.1573: d.1621) m. Renée of Guise (b.1585: d.1626) (a)

1a) Anne Hamilton (b.1603)

2a) Alexander Hamilton (b.1605: d.1606)

3a) John Hamilton, 2nd Duke of Ross (b.1608)​

5a) Marie Hamilton (b.1576) m. Henry IV of France (b.1553: d.1610) (a)

1a) Elisabeth of France (b.1597)

2a) Stillborn Son (c.1599)

3a) Louis XIII of France (b.1600)

4a) Nicholas, Duke of Orleans (b.1603)

5a) Miscarriage (c.1604)

6a) Marguerite of France (b.1607)

7a) Gaston, Duke of Anjou (b.1609)

8a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1611)​

6a) David Hamilton (b.1578: d.1578)

7a) Margaret Hamilton, Abbess of St. Pierre (b.1580: d.1639)​
 

What would the Scots get out of a Medici marriage? From a Tuscan point of view, wouldn't there be more diplomatically useful marriages for Marie closer to home?

There might also be pushback against such a pro-French marital policy, both from Protestant Scots and the English.
 
What would the Scots get out of a Medici marriage? From a Tuscan point of view, wouldn't there be more diplomatically useful marriages for Marie closer to home?

There might also be pushback against such a pro-French marital policy, both from Protestant Scots and the English.

Money. Also, there's a lack of French Princesses available, and if they couldn't get Catherine Michelle it's not like an Italian Princess/Noblewoman is a bad option. And closer to home marriages for the one Princess of an Anglo/Scottish union are a waste. She'd gonna go to the continent anyway, and since Mary, Queen of Scots was into the French I could see this match going through easily.
 
I can hear the jokes being made now if ever a Alexander Hamilton became King. Probably do a bang up job though. And this looks really interesting :)
 
Would the prospect of the catholic Mary QoS succeeding her make Queen Bess more inclined to favour a protestant Seymour-Arabella match in TTL in religious opposition?
 
Would the prospect of the catholic Mary QoS succeeding her make Queen Bess more inclined to favour a protestant Seymour-Arabella match in TTL in religious opposition?

Isn't doing anything succession wise anathema to Elizabeth? The whole ''if I name an heir then opposition will gather around them/they'll try and overthrow me'' thing? IOTL during the period when Mary was at liberty in Scotland and a possible successor Elizabeth didn't really promote alternative Protestant heirs (and, indeed, had the leading Protestant heir, Katherine Grey, chucked in prison for marrying without royal consent).

Though whether Arbella even exists ITTL timeline is questionable- there's 10 years between our POD and her birth so she could be born male or her father dies of his illness quicker and doesn't have any kids or her father marries differently or...
 
Few more thoughts:

1) A Hamilton marriage - problematic is that it comes hard on the heels of his brother's insanity and confinement following allegations of attempts to abduct Mary and threats to the Earl of Bothwell amongst others - however John was a good bet - his father and brother's Protestant conversions make him amenable to the Lords and his Catholic family leanings probably satisfy Mary.
2) The Lords including Mary's brother are never going to tolerate their children being raised in the Catholic faith and it may well cause a significant difficulty for the couple.
3) A Hamilton match offers Mary stronger domestic support - but not necessarily enough to keep her on the throne once she has produced a male heir.
4) Elizabeth's reaction will probably be muted - the Hamilton marriage is less offensive to her on the surface than the Lennox match (Hamilton has no claim to the English throne). Her council will continue to fund the Protestant Lords and sow the seeds of discontent.
5) If Mary survives then her reign will continue to see disputes between the Kirk and its supporters and her Catholic peers - in other words she will continue to be caught between the two opposing sides - the chance of the Protestants getting fed up with her and deposing her and her lacking strong support from the Catholics could easily see her fall at some point.
6) If she does then the chance of her child succeeding Elizabeth remains however if Mary survives then the chance of the English Council or Parliament moving to block any chance of her accession in England as a Catholic.
7) A surviving Mary means the attention to the other English heirs will increase - I suspect as in OTL Elizabeth will ensure Charles Stuart does not remain in his parents custody he is young enough to get a protestant education in a noble household of her chosing, forget the Seymour's she will never go back on her view of the invalidity of their parent's marriage, that leaves her cousin the Countess of Derby and her sons. Suspect Charles Stuart is the likeliest choice especially if he falls under the control of the Cecil's or Dudley and his death and scandalous marriage might be butterflyed.
8) If Mary is deposed and replaced with her son with a protestant education then i would expect things to follow as in otl and that boy succeeds Elizabeth as her nearest heir.
9) Other options would include Mary upsetting everyone early enough to be deposed or murdered - with the Scots putting the elderly Arran on the throne followed by a half century long regency for mad King James VI, Mary marry's a.n other Scots aristocrat. The chance of a foreign match is pretty thin at this point in my view - the Lords will attempt to block a Catholic marriage (as will the English) and she was unlikely to opt for a foreign Protestant. - by the time she fell for Darnley she was getting pretty desperate.
 
Few more thoughts:

1) A Hamilton marriage - problematic is that it comes hard on the heels of his brother's insanity and confinement following allegations of attempts to abduct Mary and threats to the Earl of Bothwell amongst others - however John was a good bet - his father and brother's Protestant conversions make him amenable to the Lords and his Catholic family leanings probably satisfy Mary.
2) The Lords including Mary's brother are never going to tolerate their children being raised in the Catholic faith and it may well cause a significant difficulty for the couple.
3) A Hamilton match offers Mary stronger domestic support - but not necessarily enough to keep her on the throne once she has produced a male heir.
4) Elizabeth's reaction will probably be muted - the Hamilton marriage is less offensive to her on the surface than the Lennox match (Hamilton has no claim to the English throne). Her council will continue to fund the Protestant Lords and sow the seeds of discontent.
5) If Mary survives then her reign will continue to see disputes between the Kirk and its supporters and her Catholic peers - in other words she will continue to be caught between the two opposing sides - the chance of the Protestants getting fed up with her and deposing her and her lacking strong support from the Catholics could easily see her fall at some point.
6) If she does then the chance of her child succeeding Elizabeth remains however if Mary survives then the chance of the English Council or Parliament moving to block any chance of her accession in England as a Catholic.
7) A surviving Mary means the attention to the other English heirs will increase - I suspect as in OTL Elizabeth will ensure Charles Stuart does not remain in his parents custody he is young enough to get a protestant education in a noble household of her chosing, forget the Seymour's she will never go back on her view of the invalidity of their parent's marriage, that leaves her cousin the Countess of Derby and her sons. Suspect Charles Stuart is the likeliest choice especially if he falls under the control of the Cecil's or Dudley and his death and scandalous marriage might be butterflyed.
8) If Mary is deposed and replaced with her son with a protestant education then i would expect things to follow as in otl and that boy succeeds Elizabeth as her nearest heir.
9) Other options would include Mary upsetting everyone early enough to be deposed or murdered - with the Scots putting the elderly Arran on the throne followed by a half century long regency for mad King James VI, Mary marry's a.n other Scots aristocrat. The chance of a foreign match is pretty thin at this point in my view - the Lords will attempt to block a Catholic marriage (as will the English) and she was unlikely to opt for a foreign Protestant. - by the time she fell for Darnley she was getting pretty desperate.

Would Mary worry about the problematic circumstances surrounding the marriage? She seems the type to fall in love and then charge ahead regardless of the consequences.

What do we know about the personality of John Hamilton? Is he likely to abandon Mary when dissatisfaction with her reign reaches fever pitch? How would he feel about not getting the Crown Matrimonial (or is it possible that he gets granted it later on after proving more stable than Darnley did)?

Without the Darnley murder and subsequent scandalous marriage won't it be harder for the Lord's to justify deposing Mary? IOTL Elizabeth made a big deal about Mary being a crowned and anointed Queen, so Mary being deposed "just because" (without the accusations of murder) might elicit something from Elizabeth.

Wasn't there iffiness surrounding the Derby family IOTL- the Hesketh plot, Margaret was disgraced and banished from court. These obviously happened after our POD, but if something similar happens ITTL I suspect it further limits their chances of ascending the throne.

With regards to Charles- if he is the lead bet for heir- what are his marriage options, and is Elizabeth likely to endorse any of them (she obviously didn't like her prospective heirs getting married IOTL)? Couldn't she view any suggested marriage as him trying to gather support to overthrow her?

If we do get a situation where a Protestant King Charles (Lennox-) Stuart of England has a claim to Scotland (via his descent from James, 1st Lord Hamilton and the claim that the progeny of the 1st Earl of Arran's second marriage are illegitimate) and a Catholic Queen Mary Stuart/James VI Hamilton of Scotland have a claim to England, then won't there be constant plotting, disaffection and potential conflict?
 
On the foreign front- she'd considered Don Carlos, but he's had his fall and is unmarriageable by this point. Would the Imperial Habsburgs be interested? None of Emperor Max's kids are the right age (his eldest son Rudolf was born in 1552), but his brother Charles is, being born in 1540.

This Charles persistently courted Elizabeth IOTL (and this process was ongoing at the time Darnley dies ITTL) which implies a willingness to relocate to the British Isles (but England is a far greater prize than Scotland). The wiki says Mary's uncle the Cardinal of Lorraine urged her to do this IOTL, but Mary disagreed and Max was lukewarm on the idea.



I discuss a possible alternate history had Mary considered the match with Charles Hapsburg in the attached post :)

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/alternate-history-of-mary-i-of-scotland.405193/
 
Would Elizabeth consider offering someone of English royal descent as her heir to marry Mary's eldest son?

Is there any particular reason Elizabeth would want to try and bring about a Union of the crowns? Religion could also be an issue.

There's also the matter of who- no one is really the right age, unless you get an alt-Arbella Stuart born in the mid-1570s marrying a James VI who is a decade her senior, but if we butterfly Charles Stuart's early death he'll likely have sons who'd jump over alt-Arbella in the line of succession; the Stanley brothers aren't old enough to have daughters until the 1580s (Anne Countess Castlehavenwas born in 1580 IOTL). The Grey sisters could have a daughter born in the 1560s who is the right age for James VI, but Catherine Grey is locked in the Tower in disgrace and Mary is going to marry a virtual nobody a few months after our POD (so the plan may already be in motion) and didn't have any kids IOTL; and, given their clandestine marriages, Elizabeth doesn't like them and won't want the crown to pass through their line.

Plus I think Elizabeth designating an heir or doing anything publicly that could be interpreted as designating an heir is out of character- she was super cautious/paranoid about the succession IOTL.
 
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