WI: Danish Victory at Helsinborg (1710)

I think a important aspect are that a Denmark regaining Scania, Blekinge, Halland and Bohuslen and gaining Gottorp and Bremen-Verden would be a great power, but it would pretty much be the same as Prussia anno 1750, the least among the Great Power of Europe.

So what would Danish goal be. Either expand east with a union with Sweden, which I think would the goal Denmark spen the least resources on, but Denmark would likely support a independent Finland in case of Russia trying to establish one.
Denmark turning inward and continue reforms, centralise the Danish state and enlarge army and navy, I think this will be main policy.
Denmark expanding its influence in north Germany (primarily through marriage), I think this will fill much more in Danish foreign policy than a union with Sweden.

Will this crash with UK, not really, a stronger Denmark are more likely to ally with UK, in OTL fear of France was the main reason Denmark didn't become a British ally. Here I think we will Denmark support the Austrians and British in the Austrian Succession War and join the war. The Swedes will likelly use the opportunity to declare war on Denmark and/or Russia, and I think the result will be Sweden losing Jämtland and Swedish Pomerania to Denmark, and a independent Finnish kingdom being set up. For Prussia the Danes siding with Austria will be a disaster. As they will likely be the main target of Denmark after Sweden have been defeated. I don't think Denmark will go after major gains. I think Denmark may take Strettin, but not much more than that.

Would it really be tough? Circa 1750 Prussia was able to field a 150K (the best of Europe by a pretty descent margin) and was, essentially, at the center of european politics. They where the defacto leader of most of Protestant Germany and where seen as the best means for the German princes to counterbalance any ambitions the Hapsburgs might have to make their imperial title means something.

In comparaison Denmark had a 40K army during the Northern War and a descent sized fleet. Quality-wise both where capable but nothing more. Sure, its likely the size of both will grow some ITTL but I doubt it would be enough to make the ensemble as military valuable then the Prussian army. Moreso, while it would indeed have a beachead inside Germany it would still be decisively on the fringes of things compared to Prussia

IMO it would be more a case of first among the mid-powers then last among the great powers.

As for what would happen there, I do believe you have good notions: a raproachement with Great-Britain would make allot of sense and any further expansion of Denmark influence would have to happen through diplomatic means, with Jamtland being a bit over the line in term of what could be worth it. More broadly, however, the butterflies would most likely be significant enough on the diplomatic scene of Europe that the War of Austrian Succession, if it even happen, would have a different enough setting that one would need to discuss it a bit furter before trying to imagine the results.

Generally speaking it is likely that ITTL Helsinborg would be far, far, far from the last battle in Scania. Sweden is severely weakened but isn't broken, it definitely can't pretend to be a great power anymore but it does retain some serious military capabilities in the mid to long term. The ITTL version of the Hats are probably gonna be far more focused on Denmark then Russia and I could easily see the Greater Scanian region and Bohuslan pretty much being to ITTL 18th century Sweden what Alsace-Lorraine was to late 19th-early 20th century France OTL.
 
So what would Danish goal be. Either expand east with a union with Sweden, which I think would the goal Denmark spen the least resources on, but Denmark would likely support a independent Finland in case of Russia trying to establish one.
Denmark turning inward and continue reforms, centralise the Danish state and enlarge army and navy, I think this will be main policy.
Denmark expanding its influence in north Germany (primarily through marriage), I think this will fill much more in Danish foreign policy than a union with Sweden.

Will this crash with UK, not really, a stronger Denmark are more likely to ally with UK, in OTL fear of France was the main reason Denmark didn't become a British ally. Here I think we will Denmark support the Austrians and British in the Austrian Succession War and join the war. The Swedes will likelly use the opportunity to declare war on Denmark and/or Russia, and I think the result will be Sweden losing Jämtland and Swedish Pomerania to Denmark, and a independent Finnish kingdom being set up. For Prussia the Danes siding with Austria will be a disaster. As they will likely be the main target of Denmark after Sweden have been defeated. I don't think Denmark will go after major gains. I think Denmark may take Strettin, but not much more than that.
If Denmark successfully took all those areas, I'd imagine they'd consolidate but then I'd actually say they'd look to the colonial game for the future.

Many of the conflicts between Denmark and Sweden were based around attempting to achieve dominance of the Baltic. However with Russia having basically gone to war for a foothold into the Baltic, that really isn't feasible anymore. Denmark's war goals were achieved, and they've re-solidified their control of the Sound that the loss of Scania threatened. Not so sure a union with Sweden would at all be possible unless this loss really causes things to go even worse for Sweden. Unless Russia decides to try a full scale invasion of Sweden, I don't see anything causing Sweden to seek closer relations with Denmark for quite a while. Now while Denmark might be encouraged to try to bully Sweden around militarily, I'm not sure anyone would have viewed it as possible to conquer Sweden entirely. They'd only be getting little bits of land around the borders. Not to mention the Great Powers would be against any conquest of or union with Sweden by Denmark. While Denmark after this might not be a great power, a Denmark-Norway-Sweden could potentially. So I'd say Denmark would not see any great profit from further war with Sweden. Of course they'd defend their conquests from any Swedish wars of revanchism, but I don't see Denmark looking to Sweden as their prime ambition.

Northern Germany also seems a quagmire Denmark would have little chance of winning. Two great powers, Prussia and the Hasburgs, are already battling over it. Prussia already has a clear sphere of influence they'd be intruding on, and their only real chance of competing with Prussia would be to ally with the Hasburgs. However not only are the Hasburgs Catholic and Denmark Lutheran (I think?), but it was generally the lesser partner in alliances that weathered the hard times. Denmark would have been better placed to foster good relations with Prussia to prevent the OTL conflicts between them. Maybe Prussia acknowledged the Schleswig-Holstein in favor of Denmark in return for Denmark ignoring or even supporting Prussian influence in northern Germany.

With northern Germany and Sweden both areas of limited advancement, turning to the sea would in my opinion be a natural choice. This was still the height of colonization. Denmark has a fleet, plenty of wood in Norway to support an expansion of the navy, a seemingly strong and stable foothold in the Baltic through the Sound, etc. I'd imagine with their major goals at home settled, they'd try to emulate the Dutch or Portugese in crafting a wealthy colonial empire. Colonies provided wealth and prestige at the time, while effort spent in north Germany or Sweden had all the signs of a long and bloody struggle for little major gains.

This too could play into the relations with the UK. Its possible the UK would feel threatened by a Denmark building up its navy and entering the colonial game, but the UK could also theoretically spin this in their favor. Since Denmark would be mad to pick a fight with the UK on the oceans alone, they'd likely be very much seeking to placate the British so they could start colonization without worrying. Concessions on the Sound toll, maybe allying against the French. I could very much see the UK viewing it better to have a minor but decently strong power like the Danish colonizing areas than another great power like France. An alliance with Denmark against France could benefit Denmark and the UK. Denmark gets colonies carved from French territories, while the UK weakens France in the colonial game.
 
Denmark had a small colonial empire in OTL that was half fully constitued by this point.

Through the Danish East India Company Copenhaguen had two outposts in India, Tranquebar and Seramapore, as well as the Nicobar Islands. In the Caraibean they had St. Thomas and St. Jan islands and, in Africa, a portion of the Gold Coast.

Considering Africa was still the backwater of European colonisation at the time the Caraibean and India are the most likely area for Denmark to build on its pre-existant installations and positions.
 
Denmark had a small colonial empire in OTL that was half fully constitued by this point.

Through the Danish East India Company Copenhaguen had two outposts in India, Tranquebar and Seramapore, as well as the Nicobar Islands. In the Caraibean they had St. Thomas and St. Jan islands and, in Africa, a portion of the Gold Coast.

Considering Africa was still the backwater of European colonisation at the time the Caraibean and India are the most likely area for Denmark to build on its pre-existant installations and positions.
There are other options. The War of Spanish Succession was still going on, although I'm pretty sure the British were already starting to go against the war on the diplomatic stage, but a successful Helsingborg for Denmark could mean both sides could try to wrangle Denmark's participation. Even if it just to strengthen their position in the negotiating table, which could actually work in Denmark's favor. Its participation could make the side they declared war on enter negotiations earlier. Denmark could receive minor concessions for possibly nothing or just a year or two of warfare.

The British in 1711 sought to take Quebec from France to strengthen their negotiation position. That would seem to be an ideal area for some Danish aid to come into play. It allows Denmark to contribute without making the massive commitments of fielding armies on the continent, yet makes a clear statement of Denmark support for the Grand Alliance, and even a few changes could prevent it from turning into the OTL disaster. French Quebec only had something like 10,000 settlers at this time, so it wasn't exactly stable. Although as the center of New France, it's unlikely France would give it up. However French Louisiana was even less populated, and a chunk being given to Denmark could solve the strategic issue for Britain of their colonies being surrounded by New France. Spain too had enormous land claims to areas with little to no settlement. France cared more about getting Philip V on the Spanish throne than an unsettled region in the new world. The idea of Denmark-Norway receiving land in North or South America isn't at all impossible.

Although one thing I considered is the development of a Danish rivalry with the Dutch Republic. The Dutch really stopped being a great power after the War of Spanish Succession, and generally tried to remain defensive/neutral in wars afterwards and focused more on trade. If Denmark did turn west to trade and colonization, you could see the Danish trying to muscle in to replace the Dutch in a number of places.
 
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