WI: D-day fails and Allies loose Midway

As said on the title what would happen if D-day fails and Midway ends up as a decisive Japanese victory. How will it affect the cold war?

Will we see Soviet troops on the Rhine? Will we see a divided Italy and Japan?
Will we see a completely Red Korea?
 
Midway might, with a great deal of mistakes on the USN's part end in a Japanese victory on sea, on land any attempt to land there will give the USN more than enough to salvage it in a propaganda sense. D-Day is unlikely to fail for the crude reason that by the time it'd ever be launched the Soviets would have already ground up enough of the Wehrmacht that its best forces are going to be sent to hold it back, and the WAllies can, will, and shall land only where they are strong enough to do so in sufficient strength that the Axis can never hurl them back into the sea.

Midway failing would not affect the Soviet westward advance, their furthest west they might reasonably get to would be the river Rhine, but past that their logistics no longer exist. And even then as Overlord or its equivalent is a near-certain success, the odds of them reaching the Rhine on an OTL-style situation are none too high as it is.
 
It’s hard to see how a defeat at Midway would have altered anything except the timing of victory in the Pacific. The fleet that won the war from mid 1943 on was essentially all new construction. 13 of 24 Essex class carriers and 9 of 9 Independence class light carriers were commissioned by August, 1945 and they would have rolled over the IJN.

Perhaps the biggest impact would have been if there was a reallocation of resources to the Pacific war. That could have delayed D-Day etc.

Had D-Day failed the Red Army might have been able to advance further. Then again since it would take months to prepare another amphibious assault Germany could have transferred resources east.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Like a lot of these type of WI, it really depends on the POD that caused it.

We have several old threads on Midway, but a clean Midway loss means the was last 2-6 months longer. People will argue 0-12 months longer, but the more common dates are 2-6 months.

A D-Day loss (thrown into sea) means the Allies can't try again in force for a year. They may try a second scheduled landing in Southern France. Russia will have to face more forces, so it advance is slower. Nuclear weapons will be used on Germany (helps Japan initially). Russians have good shot at reaching the Rhine. The post war borders will still be a political discussion based on the reality on the ground. There location is harder to call.

With nuclear weapons used in Europe first and Russia not coming into the war until later or never, the USA probably invades Japan in a very bloody operation.
 
If D-Day failed it's possible that the Iron Curtain is much further west. Perhaps more, if not all, of Germany, though it's difficult to say due to butterflies.

If Japan wins at Midway, the war might be delayed in it's ending. Though the butterflies may not affect the Manhattan Project so... instant sunshine over Hiroshima.
The Soviets don't have the amphibious capability in the east to invade the Japanese Home Islands, so Japan won't be divided.
 
Like a lot of these type of WI, it really depends on the POD that caused it.

We have several old threads on Midway, but a clean Midway loss means the was last 2-6 months longer. People will argue 0-12 months longer, but the more common dates are 2-6 months.

A D-Day loss (thrown into sea) means the Allies can't try again in force for a year. They may try a second scheduled landing in Southern France. Russia will have to face more forces, so it advance is slower. Nuclear weapons will be used on Germany (helps Japan initially). Russians have good shot at reaching the Rhine. The post war borders will still be a political discussion based on the reality on the ground. There location is harder to call.

With nuclear weapons used in Europe first and Russia not coming into the war until later or never, the USA probably invades Japan in a very bloody operation.

Why would its advance necessarily be slower? The Nazis never accepted Normandy as the landing until 3 weeks in IOTL, by the time they realize it actually was the landing, Bagration will end-run everything they had potentially planned and Hitler may still retain large numbers of troops too long in the West for no real reason. He, after all, did this with AGN IOTL, what's to stop him here? The USSR destroyed three German army groups in this timeframe IOTL, troops much more solid than any of those in France, so why moving C-team troops to fight the Red Army is going to change more than incidental details is a curious question.
 
If D-Day failed it's possible that the Iron Curtain is much further west. Perhaps more, if not all, of Germany, though it's difficult to say due to butterflies.

If Japan wins at Midway, the war might be delayed in it's ending. Though the butterflies may not affect the Manhattan Project so... instant sunshine over Hiroshima.
The Soviets don't have the amphibious capability in the east to invade the Japanese Home Islands, so Japan won't be divided.

But I don't see the Iron Curtain being feasibly much further west than it was IOTL. The Soviets are running out of logistics to push much further west than the Rhine, realistically speaking, and the Nazis by this point are so totally outgeneralled anything they do is going to fail. As their repeated and idiotic actions like say, the Siege of Budapest, illustrated. After all, there are certain points that will apply ITTL just as they did IOTL, such as the Nazis in all probability retaining troops in the West for some months, mistaking Normandy for a giant Dieppe-style raid and still waiting for the assault on the Pas de Calais, and then when the USSR destroys Army Group South in the Balkans they start moving troops and it's too late for them from that point no matter what happens.

The real danger for the West and the Allies as a whole is that this seems to again illustrate that democracy can't shoot its way out of a wet paper bag but Communism can gobble up entire countries in a single deep operation.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
If Midway is a Japanese victory, butterflies are introduced into the TL that would result in D-Day either not taking place at all or taking place in a manner completely different than was the case IOTL.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Why would its advance necessarily be slower? The Nazis never accepted Normandy as the landing until 3 weeks in IOTL, by the time they realize it actually was the landing, Bagration will end-run everything they had potentially planned and Hitler may still retain large numbers of troops too long in the West for no real reason. He, after all, did this with AGN IOTL, what's to stop him here? The USSR destroyed three German army groups in this timeframe IOTL, troops much more solid than any of those in France, so why moving C-team troops to fight the Red Army is going to change more than incidental details is a curious question.

All the forces in the battle of the bulge will be used in the east. A lot of the forces in France on June 1, 1944 will be transferred to the east. Ammo and fuel consumption will be less than OTL. How the POD works was not give, but lets say the worst storm in a 1000 years hits the fleet as it is landing, and Rommel is able to drive what lands into the sea. Within weeks to months, a lot of things are going better for Germany than OTL; therefore, Russia advances slower.
 
All the forces in the battle of the bulge will be used in the east. A lot of the forces in France on June 1, 1944 will be transferred to the east. Ammo and fuel consumption will be less than OTL. How the POD works was not give, but lets say the worst storm in a 1000 years hits the fleet as it is landing, and Rommel is able to drive what lands into the sea. Within weeks to months, a lot of things are going better for Germany than OTL; therefore, Russia advances slower.

The Nazis pushed more tanks into the Lake Balaton Offensive than they did the Battle of the Bulge. The USSR chewed them up and spat them out. It makes zero difference to the outcome of the war or the pace of the Soviet advance.
 
If Midway is a Japanese victory, butterflies are introduced into the TL that would result in D-Day either not taking place at all or taking place in a manner completely different than was the case IOTL.

I dunno... the two events are a couple of years apart, and a loss at Midway will scarcely affect the buildup of troops and material for D-Day... the most it would do is pull some warships over from the Atlantic to the Pacific, and that will depend on just what the USN loses... if it's all three carriers, then the Atlantic is going to be short on USN warships for a while. By the time of D-Day, the USA will likely have battered down Japan's line in the Pacific and be heading towards Tokyo... D-Day failing at this time may not affect much in the Pacific, as it is geared more around the Marines and Australians, and everything there is committed already...
 
Would loosing midway delay the Western allies enough to give the soviets enough time to eat up the entire Korean peninsula? Or even land in Japan?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
The Nazis pushed more tanks into the Lake Balaton Offensive than they did the Battle of the Bulge. The USSR chewed them up and spat them out. It makes zero difference to the outcome of the war or the pace of the Soviet advance.

You analysis method is incorrect. You are looking at absolute numbers in any battle. The POD is is for a change, you have to use marginal analysis.

So IOTL, the Soviets faced X tanks. The allies faced Y+Z tanks where Y is the number of tanks that will not be transferred east and Z is the number of tanks that will be transferred east in the ATL. In the ATL, the Soviets will have to defeat X+Z tanks. X+Z > X for all case where Z is a positive number. Simple math.

If I was arguing the Nazi defeat the Soviets, then your type of analysis has more merit. But for my point on it being slower, I merely have to show more German resources to the east. At a minimum, using the battle of the Bulge forces in the east to attack or defend means one more big battle for the Soviets, and a slower advance.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I dunno... the two events are a couple of years apart, and a loss at Midway will scarcely affect the buildup of troops and material for D-Day... the most it would do is pull some warships over from the Atlantic to the Pacific, and that will depend on just what the USN loses... if it's all three carriers, then the Atlantic is going to be short on USN warships for a while. By the time of D-Day, the USA will likely have battered down Japan's line in the Pacific and be heading towards Tokyo... D-Day failing at this time may not affect much in the Pacific, as it is geared more around the Marines and Australians, and everything there is committed already...

Agreed.

The only big butterfly that might happen is Operation Torch. If the USA sends a lot of big ships to the Pacific, then this operation might be delayed or cancelled. And depending on how one handles the butterflies of no Torch, the amount of D-Day resources might increase or decrease, but the most likely answer is about the same amount of resources. It was the #1 priority of Ike, and #1 priorities generally get full resource allocations.

I can easily see Italy not being invaded, but D-Day will happen.
 
You analysis method is incorrect. You are looking at absolute numbers in any battle. The POD is is for a change, you have to use marginal analysis.

So IOTL, the Soviets faced X tanks. The allies faced Y+Z tanks where Y is the number of tanks that will not be transferred east and Z is the number of tanks that will be transferred east in the ATL. In the ATL, the Soviets will have to defeat X+Z tanks. X+Z > X for all case where Z is a positive number. Simple math.

If I was arguing the Nazi defeat the Soviets, then your type of analysis has more merit. But for my point on it being slower, I merely have to show more German resources to the east. At a minimum, using the battle of the Bulge forces in the east to attack or defend means one more big battle for the Soviets, and a slower advance.

So your resort is to maths while ignoring the points about Hitler's conviction that this'd be a deception operation prior to the landing in Calais and also my point about the Courland Pocket?
 
before considering D-Day , You would also have to consider what happens to Torch?

the whole timeline for africa might be changed - Rommel might get reinforcements and africa might last longer

Thus italy is longer in the game...

So IMHO opinion you have to rewrite the whole war (after midway) if midway is a clear Japanese victory.

But ultimately as said before Midway might delay VJ day by 2-6 months and VE day probably also by this mount (shorter E than J as Russia might not be affected as much)
 
Like a lot of these type of WI, it really depends on the POD that caused it.

We have several old threads on Midway, but a clean Midway loss means the was last 2-6 months longer. People will argue 0-12 months longer, but the more common dates are 2-6 months.

A D-Day loss (thrown into sea) means the Allies can't try again in force for a year. They may try a second scheduled landing in Southern France. Russia will have to face more forces, so it advance is slower. Nuclear weapons will be used on Germany (helps Japan initially). Russians have good shot at reaching the Rhine. The post war borders will still be a political discussion based on the reality on the ground. There location is harder to call.

With nuclear weapons used in Europe first and Russia not coming into the war until later or never, the USA probably invades Japan in a very bloody operation.

More likely, the Navy gets it's way with Op Starvation and Japan dies without a final stand.
 
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