Midway might, with a great deal of mistakes on the USN's part end in a Japanese victory on sea, on land any attempt to land there will give the USN more than enough to salvage it in a propaganda sense. D-Day is unlikely to fail for the crude reason that by the time it'd ever be launched the Soviets would have already ground up enough of the Wehrmacht that its best forces are going to be sent to hold it back, and the WAllies can, will, and shall land only where they are strong enough to do so in sufficient strength that the Axis can never hurl them back into the sea.
Midway failing would not affect the Soviet westward advance, their furthest west they might reasonably get to would be the river Rhine, but past that their logistics no longer exist. And even then as Overlord or its equivalent is a near-certain success, the odds of them reaching the Rhine on an OTL-style situation are none too high as it is.