WI: Czechoslovakian coup of 1948 never happened

A pro-Western Czechoslovakia would protrude deep into the Soviet sphere of influence. It seems worth it to me. As to how it would be done, Stalin might ironically stir up Slovak separatism and, ironically, criticize the Czechs for their manhandling of the Sudeten Germans. Stalin's accusations toward his opponents were often ironic.

I agree with that a pro-western Czechoslovakia would really be a reason to invade.

However, I am not sure that the catholic and much less pro-communist Slovaks, knowing very well what their Slovak state did to the Soviet Union in the war, would want to leave the union with Czechs. Stirring a Slovakian communist rebellion would be much harder than in more pro-communist Czechs.

As for the accusation concerning Germans. Do you think that the Soviet Union, which built much of its legitimacy in Europe on protecting it from Germany, would accuse Czechs of treating Germans badly? What do you think would be the Czech sentiments towards the Soviet Union afterwards?

I think you are very much right about the strategic position of Czechoslovakia being a serious problem for the Soviets but what if after Truman's declaration Czechoslovaks asked the Soviets whether they would accept Czechoslovak neutrality, would they attack?

Also, I will ask about the probability of attacking Czechoslovakia in the context of

1) Soviet Union not having a nuclear bomb yet, and

2) Stalin's previous record of action:

Stalin was rather cautious when it came to actually attacking an autonomous state.
- He did not attack Poland in 1939 until after it was agreed upon with Hitler and defeated by German army.
- He only attacked Finland in late 1939 after Germany got involved with the western allies. He did not continue attacking Finland after Germany was freed in the west by defeating France in summer 1940.
- He did not invade the smallish and defenseless Baltic states until the same moment (summer 1940).
- He did not attack Finland after it joined the Soviet Union in summer 1944 despite it keeping a non-Soviet controlled government.
- He did not attack Tito's Yugoslavia in 1948.
 
Remember Stalin only okay-ed the North Korean invasion of the South after the US Secretary of State left South Korea out of the US defensive sphere. President Truman had intervened in Greece and he sent a strong signal for the Soviets to pull out of Iran.
Stalin had seen US resolve regarding Germany and he was not anxious to start a war with the US. Especially when the US had a monopoly on nuclear weapons.
While he might not be happy about Czechoslovakia going its own way the most that he could hope for as a neutral country.
 
Top