WI Czechoslovakia forces Germany to war in 1938

juanml82

juanml82

WI Czechoslovakia stands against Nazi Germany in 1938 and decides to resist an armed invasion, even if that means doing so in their own. Will France and the UK declare war on Germany? If they don't, wouldn't they turn their backs in Polland as well, thus avoiding the western front in WW2?
If they do, Czechoslovakia can cause far more damage to the whermatch than Polland, and will take longer to conquer... Will the French leadership realize that they should invade German before it's too late (that I don't think so). Germany would conquer France as soon as they can recover from the conquest of Czechoslovakia though, that should happen pretty much the same way as in OTL, if the Germans still have the same amount of forces than OTL (although they hardly had some PzIII at that time, and no PzIV?). What will happen with the UK then? The coastal radar network wasn't finished yet and the Spitfires hadn't entered service, the RAF would have to fight for air superiority against modern Bf109s using not only Hurricanes but also biplanes! We can still disregard Sealion I guess, as the Kriegsmarine still can't hold its ground against RN and has no proper landing crafts... but the Luftwaffe should have achieved air superiority in southern England :eek:
And finally... what will happen to Barbarrosa? The earlier start of the war might allow an earlier Barbarrosa, against a weaker Red Army... but Polland is still independent in TTL and furthermore, Germany is already at war without the non agression pact with the USSR
 
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Max Sinister

Banned
Before Anschluss, they had a chance, but afterwards it'd be hard: There were strong fortifications along the old German-Czech border, but much less along the Czech-Austrian border. The Germans could've attacked from the south without finding that much resistance.
 

Cockroach

Germany would conquer France as soon as they can recover from the conquest of Czechoslovakia though, that should happen pretty much the same way as in OTL, if the Germans still have the same amount of forces than OTL
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No, if the Czechs fight or even just decide to destroy their tanks rather than turn them over to Germany, the Germans will have just lost a large proportion of the tanks they used during the invasion of France.
 

Wozza

This is a no-lose proposition for the Allies.

Best case scenario: Czechs fight well in the early stages, international support for them stiffens - with the possible result of Poland the France attacking Germany whilst the Czech campaign is ongoing or Beck deposing Hitler.

Worst case scenario: Britian and France leave the Czechs to their fate, the Poles join in the carve up to secure Teschen, Beck's coupe against Hitler is still born.

Even if all of the latter happens the Germans still lose war material fighting the Czechs and much of the Czech material is destroyed, putting Germany in a weaker position and making the debacle less likely.

If France and Britain declare war then Germany is screwed even if they do nothing - France will be mobilised before they can attack Poland, making a strike either East or West extremely hazardous.
 

Grimm Reaper

In OTL Hitler had three panzer divisions(not all complete) for the invasion of Czechoslovakia.

He had seven panzer divisions(not all complete) for the invasion of Poland.

@20 divisions of the Wehrmacht in 1939 were equipped with weapons from Czechoslovakia, not to mention the arms obtained from Czech industry, as well as 2 panzer divisions and one of the three motorized divisions.

If the Czechs put up a modest fight you can probably erase one panzer and five infantry divisions from Hitler's September 1939 forces. If they put up a serious fight Hitler may have less than four panzer divisions and two-thirds of his other divisions against Poland.

Furthermore, who can say what might have happened to mid-level 'lead from the front' types like Rommel?
 

Tyr

The important thing to consider is that as the years went by it was Britain and France who were getting stronger.
Delay WW2 another 2 or 3 years and the advantage would be well in the allies favour.

Its easy now to see that Germany wasn't in such great shape themselves at the time but all the allied leaders saw was the terrible condition of their own military.
 

Johnrankins

Grimm Reaper said:
In OTL Hitler had three panzer divisions(not all complete) for the invasion of Czechoslovakia.

He had seven panzer divisions(not all complete) for the invasion of Poland.

@20 divisions of the Wehrmacht in 1939 were equipped with weapons from Czechoslovakia, not to mention the arms obtained from Czech industry, as well as 2 panzer divisions and one of the three motorized divisions.

If the Czechs put up a modest fight you can probably erase one panzer and five infantry divisions from Hitler's September 1939 forces. If they put up a serious fight Hitler may have less than four panzer divisions and two-thirds of his other divisions against Poland.

Furthermore, who can say what might have happened to mid-level 'lead from the front' types like Rommel?
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True enough, the question is would Hitler wait until 1940 or 1941 to invade Poland if he takes considerable losses in 1939.
 

Wozza

Johnrankins said:
True enough, the question is would Hitler wait until 1940 or 1941 to invade Poland if he takes considerable losses in 1939.
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He's screwed if he does. In fact, he is probably screwed if he doesn't.

The irony is that Hitler considered NOt having a war with the Czechs his greatest mistake.
 

Derek Jackson

What if any help could the Czechs expect from Rumania and Yugoslavia? (Thanks Max Sinister for help on the queries forum on the Little Entente)
 

Calgacus

Wozza said:
He's screwed if he does. In fact, he is probably screwed if he doesn't.

The irony is that Hitler considered NOt having a war with the Czechs his greatest mistake.
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Likewise, he wanted to turn and invade France immediately after the fall of Poland, despite the parlous state of his forces at that point. With strategic planning like that, it's a wonder they ever managed anything!
 

merlin

The original post is also mistaken re: the air-war. Why should an Czech inspired WW2 mean the RAF fighting the BoB with bi-planes? Even if the original plan for the France invasion had transpired - it would have meant that the Me109's would've been d's not e's! I'm sure the French MS406's & the Hurricanes would've have preferred that!

Many may say that Chamberlain's 'peace in our time' was a time saver for British re-armament, but the final kick-start didn't occur for that, until the rump of Czechoslovakia was taken over in March '39.

Economically, the peaceful take-over of the Czechs was a miracle for the Germans - all that foreign exchange available.
Militarily, the Skoda armament works, became a major asset for the Germans. the Czech Airforce provided aircraft that equiped the Luftwaffe training schools. And of course, as has already been mentioned - all the Czech tanks Pz-35t & Pz-38t, that formed a sizeable component of the German panzers that invaded France.

So probably, the war when it came, how it came was well-timed for the Germans - earlier and they would not have been pre-pared, later and the Allies would've been better armed.
 

torque7844

Leej said:
The important thing to consider is that as the years went by it was Britain and France who were getting stronger.
Delay WW2 another 2 or 3 years and the advantage would be well in the allies favour.

Its easy now to see that Germany wasn't in such great shape themselves at the time but all the allied leaders saw was the terrible condition of their own military.
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Bear in mind too, at least according to Shirer in "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich", most of Germany's military might in 1938 was all a ruse on Hitler's part. As Hitler was massing troops for the foray against the Czechs his generals were warning him that he was only leaving about 12 divisions (6 of which were ill-trained/equipped reserve divisions) on the Franco-German border.

It's at least feasible that if the Czechs put up a stiff enough resistance at the outset the Poles or the French might've finally backed them up.
 

Gladi

Bright day
The Czechs are destroyed, parts of Slovakia declare indepandance, while Hungary cobbles up the rest, and Poland invades from north. In the west the general consensus is "good riddance".

The Reich licks its' wounds for few years and then economic crisis starts up, but the dictatorship is able to survive. When USSR defeats Japan again in Asia and the communsit take-over of China seems all too propable, the Germany is giver free hand in Eastern Europe, the rest is, as they say, a history as the communist subhumans go, not down the drain, but up the chimney.
 
Lord Insane

Lord Insane

Gladi said:
The Reich licks its' wounds for few years and then economic crisis starts up, but the dictatorship is able to survive.
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They would probably have to lick it's wounds for quite a lot of years, considering they've just lost significant portions of their OTL 1939 army, and much of the industry that they captured in Czechoslovakia may very well be damaged.
 

Gladi

LordInsane said:
They would probably have to lick it's wounds for quite a lot of years, considering they've just lost significant portions of their OTL 1939 army, and much of the industry that they captured in Czechoslovakia may very well be damaged.
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Few years before the crisis, afterwards they will be too busy rounding up civilian protestors to worry about any sort of licking.
 
Lord Insane

Lord Insane

Gladi said:
Few years before the crisis, afterwards they will be too busy rounding up civilian protestors to worry about any sort of licking.
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If they are 'busy rounding up civilian protestors', that indicates a decreased ability to wage war rather than a increased. And why would they not build up their infrastructure and military because they are too busy doing that, especially considering that you believed they would do just that according to your previous post?
 

Karlos

Another side-effect. In 1939 spanish civil war was still going on. The republicans still had a sizeable army, before the Ebro battle. War in europe might mean that the allies have to help defeat Franco. A whole different WWII.
 

Gladi

LordInsane said:
If they are 'busy rounding up civilian protestors', that indicates a decreased ability to wage war rather than a increased. And why would they not build up their infrastructure and military because they are too busy doing that, especially considering that you believed they would do just that according to your previous post?
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Eh, What?

As I wrote, Czech-German War- Gerrman victory-> Germany rearms- the rearming is interrupted by economic crisis-> Germany survives-> some time later Communists start to gain preponderence in China- the West cuts deal with Germany, maybe they get a-okayed invasion of Poland to make Great Germany-> the policy of Containment of Communism is hailed as great succes across the globe.
 
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