WI Czechoslovakia fights

[Tyr]

In a spate of wikipedia browsing the other week I somehow got to reaing about the Prague spring and the Soviet invasion.
Apparently the Czech leaders totally failed to get their army prepared to defend the country as, despite all evidence to the contrary, they just didn't believe that the Warsaw Pact would attack their ally the way they did.
However....WI....they're in a slightly more paranoid mood and they do get their troops in position to defend against WP invasion?

I'd think their eventual downfall would be a given but it could be quite a hard fight. I wonder whether any WMDs could come into use (tactical ones) if it goes on too long. How would the west react?

 

[Shaby]

Their fighting options are severely limited. I guess there were Soviet forces in Czechoslovakia even without the invasion. They were absolutely outnumbered. I do not see any WMD released since it would be over before Soviets even had a chance to consider using either bomb or chemical stuff.

Unless NATO gets involved, but that is not going to happen.

There is another option that crossed my mind. That perhaps either DDR, Hungary or Poland revolts too. How likely is that?

 

[Slowpoke]

WI Czechoslovakia fights?

Bad things happen. The reason Czechoslovakia wasn't pummeled into the ground like Hungary was, nor was Dubček murdered like Nagy, was because a) they didn't resist; b) the Prague Spring wasn't anti-Soviet (or, indeed, anti-Communist) in nature, but merely highly Reformist (of course, with the benefit of hindsight we now know that was very naïve, since Communism is unreformable).

 

[ivanotter]

DDR was not likely to revolt. Hungary-> doubtful. Poland could be a candidate in this. After all, Solidarity was founded in 1980, but there must have been rumblings before that.

Interesting question. If Czech had somehow turned it into another Hungary, could WP have survived it?

 

[Tyr]

Their fighting options are severely limited. I guess there were Soviet forces in Czechoslovakia even without the invasion. They were absolutely outnumbered. I do not see any WMD released since it would be over before Soviets even had a chance to consider using either bomb or chemical stuff.

Unless NATO gets involved, but that is not going to happen.

There is another option that crossed my mind. That perhaps either DDR, Hungary or Poland revolts too. How likely is that?

I'm not so sure. The Czechs were pretty strong and had some very defensible terrain. The Soviets may not have been expecting to go all out from the get go too.
Its without question that the Czechs would lose but I think they could put up quite a good fight before they go down.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

They put up a fight but still go down, NATO does nothing, normalization is far more repressive and the Soviet Union even more discredited. A lot of the moral capital for the peaceful fall of communism in Czechoslovakia would not exist and the Soviets may lose brownie points in the 3rd World.

Now what?

 

[euromellows]

Interesting premise. What are the long term effects? Does this deter other WP countries from adopting reforms or does Moscow decide it would be better to allow minor reforms so as to preserve the integrity of the WP?

 

[Malice]

In the comments being made thus far one point has been ignored: it wasn't just the Soviet Union that invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968. It was a Warsaw Pact invasion, not just a Soviet invasion. That is the key reason why the Czechs didn't resist. The other thing is NATO would not have intervened, partly because any attempt to march into Czechoslovakia would've been seen as an act of war against the Warsaw Pact as a whole and may have triggered a major war.

Reform in the Communist bloc only became possible when the Soviets announced they would not intervene in the internal affairs of Warsaw Pact countries and that was what enabled the 1989 reforms to take hold in eastern Europe. As soon as the Communist bloc governments realised Soviet tanks weren't going to prop them up they had no chance of survival.

 

[KACKO]

Also Czechoslovak army was mostly concentrated in west of the country. Borders in the east with SU, but also borders with Poland and Hungary were basically not covered at all.
Other problem was, that for over 20 years Soviets were liberators from Nazi occupation, soldiers and officers mostly didn't even thing before 21st August 1968 about fighting Soviets or other countries of WP.
Even if Czechoslovak Army resisted it would be not organized resistance without front lines which would be quickly suppressed by Soviets.
There were few cases of Czechoslovak tank units in defensive position in and around their bases but their reacted only to Soviet tanks showing up in their areas and basically were surrounded by Soviets. In case shoot out started they would for sure inflict some casualties but would be decimated in short time.
Remember that after Czechoslovak-Soviet meeting in July in Cierna na d Tisou Soviets pulled Soviets troops from Czechoslovakia (there were there on training exercises with Czechoslovak People Army).
Probably that's why Czechoslovak politicians didn't anticipates Soviet invasion.