WI Czechoslovakia defies the Munich Agreement

We've just got a nice discussion on what if Chamberlain didn't give Sudetenland to Hitler, and it is a nice one.

Now let us consider a similar scenario: Chamberlain had made the same agreement with Hitler, but Beneš refused to comply with it.

It seems the Czechoslovaks will not choose this devastating path. But in the same time period, the Finns fought a strong USSR in the Winter War, and it is not inconceivable that the Czechs do not have the same determination.

Then what would happen? We could reasonably expect the Fall Grün would be executed. But will Britain and France be pushed to war by public opinion afterwards? And, if this do not occur, would Germany, without the Czech industry and arms and weakened by the war, still invade Poland and conquer Western Europe in 1939-40 as in OTL?

Please discuss.
 

General Zod

Banned
Actually, this is the dream case scenario for Hitler. In the Munich Conference it was agreed and communicated to Czechoslovakia by Britain and France that it could either resist Germany alone or submit to the prescribed annexations. Therefore, if Prague defies the agreement, Britain and France publicly wash their hands of the warmongering Czechs that threaten world peace, Germany has a very good casus belli in the face of the international community. Result, the full might of the Wehrmacht crushes the Czechs in a few weeks, and Hitler has a valid claim in occupying the whole of Bohemia and Moravia without international outrage since Prague has shown itself to be a troublemaker.

The relations between UK, France, and Germany aren't poisoned as a result, so Hitler can go on pressuring Poland for Danzig and the Corridor without the Western Powers taking the side of Poland no matter what, since Hitler's word has not shown to be worthless.

There are two possibilities then, the Munich powers concoct another agreement between themselves that gives Danzig and the Corridor to Germany, and the Poles accept, or they defy.

Wll Poland accept Hitler's claims, after seeing the fate of Czechia, or will they choose stubborn resistance, too, after seeing that UK and France will not fight for their territorial integrity ? Hard to say. They were highly nationalistic and overconfident in their own army, but would Warshaw choose war alone nonetheless ? What do you suggest ? Germany will again crush Poland in a few weeks. But what will the URSS do, if Germany successfully invades Poland with Britain and France showing benevolent indifference ?

Now that Germany controls Czechia and Poland, with the blessing of the Western Powers, it is obvious that a strategic agreement is being made to unleash the might of the Nazi war machine on the URSS, with the benevolent neutrality of UK and France. Will the URSS unleash the Red Army then and there in Eastern Poland (and maybe the Baltics) ? What will Hitler do ? Make a temporary compromise much like the M-R pact, and wait a couple years to complete the rearmament ? And will he choose a '39 Barbarossa (he has a good causus belli) ? Or will Stalin swllow the bitter pill, and bid his time, building up the Red Army ? Will he attack the Baltics or Finland as compensation (this will give Germany and maybe also the UK a good casus belli, but he might assume that war with the West is inevitable anyway).

Now, Hitler was not just interested in Danzig and the Corridor; he wanted full control over Poland's territory and resources, and make it part of its lebensrauam. Now, it is possible that, had Poland accept to satisfy his irrendentist claims, and accepted a place in the German sphere of influence as a quasi-fascist vassal satellite, he might have accepted the bargain, as he did with Hungary and Romania, at least in the brief term. Poland would have then become another German satellite in the crusade against Soviet Russia.
 

Markus

Banned
Result, the full might of the Wehrmacht crushes the Czechs in a few weeks, ...

What "full might of the Wehrmacht" are you talking about? Even a year later the "might of the Wehrmacht" was more show than substance. At this time the Wehrmacht won´t win, at least that was the conclusion leading Wehrmacht Generals reached after inspecting the czech military.

edit: Taken from the other discussion: In September 1938 the German Air Force had 250 Ju-87A and not one Me109E and production of the He111E had just begun in February. You get the picture?
 
Disaster for Hitler.

Even assuming that the USSR and the Little Entente don't come to the support of the Czechs, if only by cowing Hungary and/or Poland, this means he faces Poland in 1939 with a much smaller Wehrmacht. Bear in mind that 20+ German divisions in 1939, including one third of the panzers, were equipped with gear captured from the Czechs.

Given a reasonable level of resistance we can anticipate 30-50% of the Czech weapons being lost or destroyed(possibly interned in Poland), with a higher percentage among tanks and artillery. Then there would be German losses. A loss rate of 10% wouldn't be unreasonable, perhaps even modest, so that's another 5 divisions gone. Losses in armor, on both sides, are liable to be higher.


And Hitler does not have a causus belli in the eyes of the international community because another nation refused to be dismembered for his convenience while the planned Luftwaffe strikes on Prague will certainly make him look exceedingly bad in the world.
 
Bright day
I have said it before and will say it here again, I do believe that this may be the best option for Nazi Germany. Without western support Poland is going to be vanguished, regardless if Germans have 10 or 20 less percent tanks, artillery shells and whatever else. But the war is going to drag longer and mean more losses for German Realm. The differences lies after Polish campaign, will Hitler be able to march west or not? If Hitler is not at war with France and Britain an invasion from Soviet Union would certainly legitimise his conquest to them- an invasion which many historians believe would come. Even if Hitler is at war with the western allies, it could still be mostly a sitzkrieg; a war to be forbidden and forgotten in face ot the Bolshevik Asian Hordes.
 

General Zod

Banned
Even assuming that the USSR and the Little Entente don't come to the support of the Czechs, if only by cowing Hungary and/or Poland,

URSS can't come to the rescue of Czechs, their encouragement may be the whole reason behind their stubborness in the first place, but 1939 Poland and Romania will let the Red Army march through their territory when Hell freezes over. It is also most unlikely Poland will pick a fight with Germany on their own to save Prague, OTL they wanted a piece of Czechia, but if they do, they have just given Hitler a perfectly valdi casus belli to destroy them too. It will indeed take a few more months for Germany to wipe out the Czech-Polish alliance, as they build up their military production, but it will happen. UK and France won't move an hand to help them, since they have defied their Munich mandate.

And Hitler does not have a causus belli in the eyes of the international community because another nation refused to be dismembered for his convenience while the planned Luftwaffe strikes on Prague will certainly make him look exceedingly bad in the world.

Sure he has. At Munich, the great powers have agreed a workable compromise to save international peace that returns ethnic German minorities who want to be Germans to their homeland, which the vast majority of the Western public opinion regards as perfectly acceptable, and the stubborn Czechs throw it all to the winds because they want to hold on something that was not truly and rightfully theirs to being with. The Versailles diktat created the problem (the Sudetenland had voted to be with Germany in 1918-19), another Munich diktat rights it for the sake of European peace. The Czechs aren't going to find any much more sympathy than Serbs holding on Kosovo in 1999. German bombings on Prague are going to be seen by most much like bombings on Badgad in 1991 or on Belgrad in 1999. Distasteful but acceptable collateral damage.
 
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Guys

Lets see. If the Czechs decide to resist, say due to promises of Soviet support, which doesn't come. [Otherwise the Germans probably lose heavily]. The Czechs will go down but with heavy losses on both sides. As said this will mean a much weaker German army in the next couple of years. Also, as they resisted the Czech will not be treated as 'well' [by Nazi standards] as OTL. This will mean Hitler will get some loot out of the country but anger public opinion in the west. Especially when he makes clear he won't be withdrawing from the rest of the country.

As said his next target will be Poland. It will be in a stronger position militarily because Germany is a lot weaker. However it won't necessarily realise this and the relatively quick victory will probably make the Germans look stronger, especially as the Nazis will seek to boost their performance propaganda wise. I can't see the Poles submitting without a fight, both because of historical experiences of German control and what they will know of the Nazis, which will be strengthen by their actions in Bohemia. Three basic options:
a) Poland makes an agreement with Stalin. Highly unlikely because they fear and detest the Russians/Communists as much as the Germans/Nazis. However they might be desperate enough, but I think it unlikely.

b) The west decides to support Poland as it did historically, i.e. politically. There's been no clear demonstration of Hitler's dishonesty as OTL in Bohemia but the behaviour of the Nazis there and internally will be giving causes for great concern so they might still follow the OTL. In that case things go more along OTL with a weaker Germany. Ideally this means heavier losses in Poland for the Germans, especially if they try doing it earlier than OTL and before much recovery from the losses of the Czech conflict. Then probably cumulative damage means the collapse of the German offensive into France. With both Poland and Bohemia heaving with unrest, probably concern in other parts of eastern Europe and a failure in France the Nazi war machine falls apart.

c) Poland is left to stand alone. In this case Hitler might not seek a deal with Stalin. If he doesn't Stalin will probably invade eastern Poland anyway because he won't want the Germans that close. Probably a couple of bloody years of war before the Germans are defeated. They don't have the forces, especially with the additional losses they will have suffered to stand long against even a purged Red Army. Ideally you will see the western powers intervene to occupy western Europe and overall a markedly lower death toll in occupied eastern Europe but it will still become a number of Soviet satellites. From there difficult to tell the future path.

b) is the best option for the world but don't know how likely.

Steve
 
This may help or not !! :D


German Army Order of Battle 1 Oct 1938

For the Invasion of Czechoslovakia

Under Command of: OBERKOMMANDO DES HEERES

C.in.C.: GenObst. Walther von Brauchitsch

SECOND ARMY (AOK 2) HQ: Cosel: - CO: GenObst. Gerd von Rundstedt

Chief of Staff: Major General Hans von Salmuth
Ia. Obstlt. Hasse

[Formed from: Stab H.Gru.Kdo.1 - Based in Southern Silesia)

AOK Reserves:

7 Flieger Division CO: Major General (Lw) Kurt Student

II (02) Armeekorps: CO: General der Infanterie Johannes Blaskowitz

From Wkr.II:
12 Infantry Division [II AK: Schwerin] CO: Lieutenant General Ludwig von Leyen
32 Infantry Division [II AK: Koslin]

Heerestruppen:

II./Art.Regt. 38
II./Art.Regt.48
II./Art.Regt.68
42 Pi.Btl.

From Wkr.III:
3 Infantry Division [III AK: Frankfurt on Oder] CO: Lieutenant General Walter Petzel
3 Panzer Division [III AK: Berlin] CO: Lieutenant General Leo Geyr Freiherr von Schweppenberg

Heerestruppen:

15 Pz.Regt. (I & II Btls.) (CO: Oberst Johannes Streich)
II./Art.Regt.56 (gem.)
II./Art.Regt.58 (gem.)
2 Nebel-Abt. (mot.)

VIII (08) Armeekorps: CO: General der Infanterie Ernst Busch

From Wkr.VIII:
8 Infantry Division [VIII AK: Neisse (vorl.Freiwaldau)] CO: Lieutenant General Rudolf Koch-Erpach
18 Infantry Division [VIII AK: Liegnitz] CO: Lieutenant General Erich von Manstein
28 Infantry Division [VIII AK: Breslau] CO: Major General Hans von Obstfelder

Heerestruppen:

II./Art.Regt.44
II./Art.Regt.64
48 Pi.Btl.

From Wkr.X:
30 Infantry Division [X AK: Lubeck] CO: Lieutenant General Kurt von Briesen

Under AOK 2 Command:

Group “Silesia” (Korps sized).
(Independent command – facing Poland)

From Wkr.VIII:
16 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.VIII].
30 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.VIII].
72 Landwehr Division [from Wkr.VIII].

Grenzschutzabschnittskommando 3
Grenzschutzabschnittskommando 13
Grenzschutzabschnittskommando 14

IV (04) Armeekorps: CO: General der Infanterie Victor von Schwedler

[Note: Independent command]

Chief of Staff: Major General Friedrich Olbricht)

From Wkr.IV:
4 Infantry Division [IV AK: Reichenberg (Sudetenland)] CO: Lieutenant General Erich Raschick
24 Infantry Division [IV AK: Chemnitz] CO: Lieutenant General Sigismund von Forster
SS-Inf.Regt. “Germania” CO: SS-Standartenführer Carl-Maria Demelhuber
Grenzschutzabschnittskommando 5

EIGHTH ARMY (AOK 8) HQ: Freiburg/Schlesien CO: GenObst. Fedor von Bock

Chief of Staff: Major General Hans Felber
Ia. Oberst Hauffe

[Formed from: Stab H.Gru.Kdo.3 - Based in Saxony)

III (03) Armeekorps: CO: General der Infanterie Erwin v. Witzleben

From Wkr. III

23 Infantry Division [III AK: Potsdam] CO: Lieutenant General Walter Graf von Brockdorff-Ahlefeldt

From Wkr.IV

14 Infantry Division [IV AK: Leipzig] CO: Lieutenant General Peter Weyer

XI (11) Armeekorps: CO: General der Artillerie Wilhelm Ulex

From Wkr.XI:
19 Infantry Division [XI AK: Hannover] CO: Lieutenant General Gunther Schwantes
31 Infantry Division [XI AK: Braunschweig] CO: Lieutenant General Rudolf Kaempfe

From Wkr.XIV:
20 Infantry Division (mot.) [XIV AK: Hamburg] CO: Lieutenant General Max Schwandner

TENTH ARMY (AOK 10) HQ: Schwandorf CO: General der Artillerie Walther von Reichenau

Chief of Staff: Major General Kurt Bernard
Ia. Oberst Dostler

[Formed from: Stab H.Gru.Kdo.4 - Based in Northern Bavaria)

XIII (13) Armeekorps: CO: General der Kavallerie Maximilian Freiherr v. Weichs

From Wkr.XIII:
10 Infantry Division [XIII AK: Regensburg] CO: Lieutenant General Conrad v. Cochenhausen

XIV (14) Armeekorps: CO: General der Infanterie Gustav v. Wietersheim

From Wkr.XIII:
17 Infantry Division [XIII AK: Nurnberg] CO: Lieutenant General Erich Friderice

From Wkr.XIV:
2 Infantry Division (mot.) [XIV AK: Stettin] CO: Lieutenant General Paul Bader
13 Infantry Division (mot.) [XIV AK: Magdeburg] CO: Lieutenant General Paul Otto

XVI (16) Armeekorps: CO: Lieutenant General Heinz Guderian

From Wkr.VI:
1 Light Division [VI AK: Wuppertal] CO: Lieutenant General Erich Hoepner

From Wkr.IX:
1 Panzer Division [IX AK: Weimar] CO: (03.01.39) Lieutenant General Rudolf Schmidt
SS-Inf.Regt. “L.A.H.” CO: SS-Obergruppenführer Joseph “Sepp” Dietrich

TWELFTH ARMY (AOK 12) HQ: Passau CO: GenObst.z.V. Wilhelm von Leeb

Chief of Staff: Lieutenant General Erich v. Lewinski gen. von Manstein (also CO: 18 Inf.Div.)
Ia. Obstlt. Blumentritt

[Formed from: Gen.Kdo.VII AK. - Based in Southern Bavaria)

V (05) Armeekorps: CO: General der Infanterie Hermann Geyer

From Wkr.V:
5 Infantry Division [V AK: Ulm] CO: Lieutenant General Wilhelm Fahrmbacher
25 Infantry Division [V AK: Ludwigsburg] CO: Lieutenant General Christian Hansen

From Wkr.VI:
16 Infantry Division [VI AK: Munster (Westf.)] CO: Major General Gotthard Heinrici

VII (07) Armeekorps: CO: General der Infanterie Eugen von Schobert

From Wkr.VII:
7 Infantry Division [VII AK: Munchen] CO: Lieutenant General Otto Hartmann
27 Infantry Division [VII AK: Augsburg] CO: Major General Friedrich Bergmann
1 Gebirgs Division [VII AK: Garmisch-Partenkirchen] CO: Major General Ludwig Kubler

IX (09) Armeekorps: CO: General der Artillerie Friedrich Dollmann

From Wkr.II:
78 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.II].

From Wkr.IX:
9 Infantry Division [IX AK: Giessen] CO: Lieutenant General Erwin Osswald
15 Infantry Division [IX AK: Frankfurt on Main] CO: Lieutenant General Emil Leeb

From Wkr.XVII:
45 Infantry Division [XVII AK: Linz (Donau)] CO: Major General Friedrich Materna

FOURTEENTH ARMY (AOK 14) HQ: Wien CO: General der Infanterie Wilhelm List

Chief of Staff: Lieutenant General Richard Ruoff
Ia. Oberst Woehler

[Formed from: Stab H.G.ru.Kdo.5 - Based in Austria)

XVII (17) Armeekorps: CO: General der Infanterie Werner Kienitz

From Wkr.XVII:
44 Infantry Division [XVII AK: Wien] CO: Lieutenant General Albrech Schubert
4 Light Division [XVII AK: Wien] CO: Major General Alfred Ritter v. Hubicki
SS-Inf.Regt. “Deutschland” CO: SS-Standartenführer Felix Steiner
69 Reserve Division

XVIII (18) Armeekorps: CO: General der Infanterie Eugen Beyer

From Wkr.XIV:
29 Infantry Division (mot.) [XIV AK: Erfurt] CO: Major General Joachim Lemelsen

From Wkr.XVII:
2 Panzer Division [XVII AK: Wien] CO: Lieutenant General Rudolf Veiel

From Wkr.XVIII:
2 Gebirgs Division [XVIII AK: Innsbruck] CO: Lieutenant General Valentin Feurstein
3 Gebirgs Division [XVIII AK: Graz] CO: Major General Eduard Dietl

Grenzschutzabschnittskommando 6

GUARDING the EASTERN FRONTIER

THIRD ARMY (AOK 03) CO: General der Artillerie Georg v. Kuchler

Chief of Staff: Major General Karl Hollidt
Ia. Obstlt. Wagner

[Formed from: Gen.Kdo.I AK - Based in East Prussia)

I (01) Armeekorps: CO: General der Artillerie Georg von Kuchler

From Wkr.I:
1 Infantry Division [I AK: Insterburg] CO: Major General Joachim von Kortzfleisch
11 Infantry Division [I AK: Allenstein] CO: Lieutenant General Max Bock
21 Infantry Division [I AK: Elbing] CO: Lieutenant General Albert Wodrig
Cavalry Brigade [I AK: Insterburg] CO: Oberst Eberhard von Mackensen

Two of the three Land Divs listed below:

3 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.I]
22 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.I]
67 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.I]
61 Reserve Division

FOURTH ARMY (AOK 04): CO: GenObst. z.V. Kurt von Hammerstein-Equord (To be re-called out of retirement.)

Chief of Staff: Lieutenant General Max von Viebahn
Ia. Obstlt. Metz

(Formed from: Gen.Kdo.XI AK - Based in Pommerania)

X (10) Armeekorps: CO: General der Kavallerie Wilhelm Knochenhauer

From Wkr.III:
1 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.III - Berlin]
99 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.III]

From Wkr.X:
22 Infantry Division [X AK: Bremen] CO: General der Infanterie Adolf Strauss

Grenzschutzabschnittskommando 1
Grenzschutzabschnittskommando 2
Grenzschutzabschnittskommando 12

GUARDING the WESTERN FRONTIER

Under Command of: HEERESGRUPPEN-KOMMANDO-2: CO: General der Infanterie Wilhelm Adam

Chief of Staff: General der Infanterie Gustav von Wietersheim (also CO: XIV AK )
Ia. Obstlt. Muller

(Units below not activated – held in Reserve)

FIRST ARMY (AOK 01): CO: General der Artillerie Ludwick Beck

(At the disposal of OKH: 27 Aug. to 31 Oct.38 )

Chief of Staff: Lieutenant General Georg von Apell
Ia. Oberst von Greiffenberg

[Formed from: Gen.Kdo.XII AK - Based along the Western Front)

AOK Reserves:

From Wkr.XII:
36 Infantry Division [XII AK: Kaiserlautern] CO: Lieutenant General Georg Lindemann
79 Reserve Division
56 Reserve Division
73 Reserve Division

XII (12) Armeekorps: CO: General der Infanterie Walter Schroth

From Wkr.IX:
11 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.IX]

From Wkr.XI:
84 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.XI]

From Wkr.XII:
33 Infantry Division [XII AK: Mannheim] CO: Major General Hermann Ritter von Speck
34 Infantry Division [XII AK: Koblenz]
26 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.XII]

Grenzschutzabschnittskommando 11

FIFTH ARMY (AOK 5): CO: General der Infanterie Curt Liebmann

Chief of Staff: Major General Georg von Sodenstern
Ia. Oberst Duvert

[Formed from: Gen.Kdo.VI AK - Based along the Western Front)

VI (06) Armeekorps: CO: General der Artillerie Gunther von Kluge

From Wkr.IV:
41 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.IV - Dresden]

From Wkr.VI:
6 Infantry Division [VI AK: Bielefeld] CO: Lieutenant General Arnold Freiherr von Biegeleben
26 Infantry Division [VI AK: Koln] CO: Lieutenant General Fritz Kuhne
57 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.VI - Cologne]
92 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.VI - Mulheim]

Grenzschutzabschnittskommando 8
Grenzschutzabschnittskommando 9

SEVENTH ARMY (AOK 7): CO: General der Infanterie Hans Seutter von Lotzen (To be re-called from retirement.)

Chief of Staff: Major General Walter Model
Ia. Oberst v. Witzleben

[Formed from: Gen.Kdo.V AK - Based along the Western Front)

Generalkommando der Grenztruppen Saarpfalz:

From Wkr.V:
35 Infantry Division [V AK: Karlsruhe]
14 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.V – Stuttgart)]
45 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.V - Stuttgart]

From Wkr.VII:
97 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.VII - Munich]

OKH General Reserves

Stab XV AK.

34 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.IV]
57 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.VI]
37 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.XIII]
52 Reserve Division
68 Reserve Division
53 Landwehr Division [from: Wkr.X]
62 Reserve Division
74 Reserve Division
 

General Zod

Banned
Steve your analysis is rather good but I disagree with your choice of completely ruling out Poland deciding to defy Germany, after seeing Czechia fall and no hope of assistance from the West.

You also missed examining option d) Poland is left to stand alone but Hitler still makes a deal with Stalin. Since there won't be a threat from Western powers, the deall will probably give Russia a lesser slice, Eastern Poland and maybe Latvia and Estonia. A couple years follow, while both the Reich and the URSS build up their armed forces, and eventually come to blows. On one hand, Germany won't have any drain from war in the West, on the other, Stalin won't be taken by suprise. A prolonged bloody war is likely, which will end 2-3 years later with a compromise peace whose outcome may range from the 1939 Soviet borders to Germany conquering the Baltics, Belarus, and Ukraine. Without the initial surprise, Germany hasn't the chance for total victory, but without the second front, URSS can at best strive for a draw. Germany will be too spent to pick up a fight in the West, so it will settle down to rule its Eastern Europe possessions. URSS too is quite weakened and can't do expansionist move in Eastern Europe. Either or both regimes will likely fall from exaustion and economic misamanagement within the next generation.

A rather good option for the world.
 
Any result leaving the Nazi regime intact would be extremely bad for the world. Period.

As to why either or both of the regimes would fall in a generation....no basis exists for that assumption. Indeed, with successful aggression(in Germany's case) and some success with far fewer losses(in the USSR's case), both would be rather better off than OTL.

I won't even ask about this fallacy that either Hitler wins territory or the status quo is restored when the possibility of a Soviet advance is quite possible.


There is no chance of Poland surrendering without a fight and, if Poland were to unexpectedly rally to Czechoslovakia's cause in 1938 it is not certain Germany would win the war. If Hitler splits his forces he likely is unable to knock either out fast and if he goes for one, Czechoslovakia most likely, he is looking at East Prussia and Silesia being overrun.

It is also wrong to assume that France and the UK, having sacrificed so much at Munich to avoid war, only to get the war anyway, would fail to support Poland. Indeed, the credibility of both nations with any other potential allies would leave them little choice.
 

General Zod

Banned
Any result leaving the Nazi regime intact would be extremely bad for the world. Period.

So is one that leaves the Soviet regime intact. Period. Unfortunately, the chances of getting rid of both in the same war are very slim. If so, far better that they tear each other out till mutual exaustion and keep Western Europe free of the war, invasion, and destruction, and that the Eastern war ends in a tie or limited victory.

As to why either or both of the regimes would fall in a generation....no basis exists for that assumption.

Economic mismanagement. A critical long-term flaw of both regimes.

Indeed, with successful aggression(in Germany's case)

And fighting to war to exaustion

and some success with far fewer losses(in the USSR's case),

Which far fewer losses ?

I won't even ask about this fallacy that either Hitler wins territory or the status quo is restored when the possibility of a Soviet advance is quite possible.

In 1939. Not if the war starts on schedule in spring 1941 and the war is one-front. The sub-scenario I called attention on, assumes that Germany agrees to partition Poland with USSR. If the German-Soviet War starts in 1939, you're right, but Steve has already covered that part.

There is no chance of Poland surrendering without a fight

Slim chance, but no chance if they are alone.

and, if Poland were to unexpectedly rally to Czechoslovakia's cause in 1938 it is not certain Germany would win the war.

Even slimmer chance.

If Hitler splits his forces he likely is unable to knock either out fast

If so ? He just needs a few months for military production to build up.

and if he goes for one, Czechoslovakia most likely, he is looking at East Prussia and Silesia being overrun.

Maybe East Prussia. Not Silesia. Too precious, and in the middle of the front, many forces are going to concentrate here. East Prussia is of little military value and may be sacrificed temporarily while the first enemy is knocked out.

It is also wrong to assume that France and the UK, having sacrificed so much at Munich to avoid war,

They sacrificed nothing.

only to get the war anyway, would fail to support Poland. Indeed, the credibility of both nations with any other potential allies would leave them little choice.

It depends on how the diplomatic crisis that brings Poland into the war unfolds. If Hitler clearly refuses any reasonable compromise and shows that he won't accept anything less than total subjugation of Poland, they will help Warsaw. OTOH, if Poland follows the path of Prague, and refuses a compromise that UK and France finds reasonable, or it rushes to the help of a defiant Prague, it will be left alone. The key difference of the PoD is that Nazi Germany has not shown itself to be utterly untrustworthy, and it attacked Czechoslovakia with the Western powers' blessing.
 
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One thing that people may have forgotten about... from The Oster Conspiracy of 1938: The Unknown Story of the Military Plot to Kill Hitler and Avert World War II

As Hitler planned to invade Czechoslovakia, disenchanted German military men believed that the campaign would be a disastrous failure. Lieutenant Colonel Hans Oster had watched during the early 1930s as Hitler brutally deposed and executed men under whom Oster had served, in order to consolidate his hold on the military. A military intelligence officer, Oster (1887-1945) played a crucial role in a plan, never executed, to capture or kill Hitler. A professor of History at the University of Tampa, Parssinen opens each chapter with cursory background material, then describes events as they unfolded day by day. The action jumps from the members of the German military who hatched the coup plan, to Hitler's inner circle and the SS as it moved toward war, to the British government as it prevaricated and then sent British Prime Minister Chamberlain to Germany to meet Hitler and defuse the Czech crisis. The pact in Munich that September left the conspirators in a quandary, as they had planned to begin their revolt after the order for the invasion of Czechoslovakia had been given, and they destroyed their assassination plans. Oster was involved in an actual failed attempt against Hitler in 1943. He was arrested and executed not for that, but for his part in helping Jews escape to Switzerland.

WI Oster went ahead with his plot to kill Hitler when the orders went out to attack Czechoslovakia?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
I have been toying around with the idea that Britain accept the annexation of Sudet, while Czechoslovakia and France defies it. I am very interresting in a scenario where France build an alliance with Czechoslovakia and Poland, and of course of Hitler's and Britain's and Stalin's reaction towards it.
 
"As Hitler planned to invade Czechoslovakia, disenchanted German military men believed that the campaign would be a disastrous failure."

The plotters (in most cases conservative monarchists who would not have abolished dictatorship) would only have acted if an invasion of Czechia had meant war with France and Britain.

You must keep in mind that they (Beck, Oster, Halder et al) were all revanchist nationalists who also desired territorial expansion. They merely wanted to avoid a war on multiple fronts whilst Germany's army was ill-prepared for such an enterprise, not a war or conquest in general.

Besides, they were notoriously indecisive - some of them also planned to get rid of Hitler if the Danzig crisis led to war or if he gave the order to invade France.

In any case, according to the diaries of Ulrich von Hassell (who was supposed to be Foreign Miniister in their shadow cabinet), some of the plotters, most importantly the Prussian Finance Minister Johannes Popitz, were in contact with Göring, who was eager to avoid war, and he was for a long time considered as a possible replacement for the Führer.
 
Hitler will invade Czechoslovakia BUT it would become difficult for Hitler to invade Czechoslovakia IF France will come to aid Czechoslovakia. USSR will not rescue Czechoslovakia. Britain will not rescue Czechoslovakia also.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Hitler will invade Czechoslovakia BUT it would become difficult for Hitler to invade Czechoslovakia IF France will come to aid Czechoslovakia. USSR will not rescue Czechoslovakia. Britain will not rescue Czechoslovakia also.

And what if we throw Poland in the mix, say that after the Munich Conference France, Poland and Czechoslovakia immidiately form an alliance. That would force hitler to invade Poland and Czecholsovakia at the same time, as well as holding the french at bay. He will of course be succesful, but how will it change the war. The Germans would probably have taken more casualties than IRL. And how would Stalin react to a war between germany and Poland, perhaps even before the Molotov- Ribbentrop agreement.
 
And what if we throw Poland in the mix, say that after the Munich Conference France, Poland and Czechoslovakia immidiately form an alliance. That would force hitler to invade Poland and Czecholsovakia at the same time, as well as holding the french at bay. He will of course be succesful, but how will it change the war. The Germans would probably have taken more casualties than IRL. And how would Stalin react to a war between germany and Poland, perhaps even before the Molotov- Ribbentrop agreement.


If Germany is fighting France, Poland and Czechoslovakia in 1938 then, unless France sits behind the Maginot line, which is possible, Germany goes down. It has neither the forces nor the economic position to survive such a war. Especially since, presuming Britain stays militarily neutral, it will probably give some economic aid while at this point Rumania would also probably support the allies.

This presumes that Russia doesn't offer support to the Czechs as they did historically. If they supply aid or limited forces Hitlers toast even earlier. There is an outside chance that Stalin might intervene on Hitler's side, claiming the vast bulk of Poland but highly unlikely I think.

If France fights only a defensive war we're at the point suggested above. Germany defeats its eastern opponents, although not without heavy losses, but then faces a weak but still way too powerful Red Army.

Steve
 
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Steve your analysis is rather good but I disagree with your choice of completely ruling out Poland deciding to defy Germany, after seeing Czechia fall and no hope of assistance from the West.

Is this a typo as I presumed Poland stands alone as option c) ?


You also missed examining option d) Poland is left to stand alone but Hitler still makes a deal with Stalin. Since there won't be a threat from Western powers, the deall will probably give Russia a lesser slice, Eastern Poland and maybe Latvia and Estonia. A couple years follow, while both the Reich and the URSS build up their armed forces, and eventually come to blows. On one hand, Germany won't have any drain from war in the West, on the other, Stalin won't be taken by suprise. A prolonged bloody war is likely, which will end 2-3 years later with a compromise peace whose outcome may range from the 1939 Soviet borders to Germany conquering the Baltics, Belarus, and Ukraine. Without the initial surprise, Germany hasn't the chance for total victory, but without the second front, URSS can at best strive for a draw. Germany will be too spent to pick up a fight in the West, so it will settle down to rule its Eastern Europe possessions. URSS too is quite weakened and can't do expansionist move in Eastern Europe. Either or both regimes will likely fall from exaustion and economic misamanagement within the next generation.

I did mention Hitler and Stalin still coming to an agreement but must admit I forgot to analysis it. If they did there is the danger of your scenario coming to fruit apart from the fact you missed out on the German attack on France. This would happen as Hitler will not trust the French in his rear while also he wants A-L, domination of the continent and revenge for 1918.


A rather good option for the world.

I agree with Grimm here. The Nazis are worse than the Soviets, albeit possibly not by a great distance. Furthermore you have two large bandit states feeding off each other in terms of propaganda so probably likely to see each surviving for quite a while, especially if Hitler dies and someone at least borderline sane becomes the new Furhur. The direct impact would be felt by the people of eastern and central Europe but drastically increased military spending, insecurity and the reduction of much of central Europe to little more than barbarism culturally will significantly worsen life for just about everybody.

Steve
 
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