I agree with Saran, apart from on the Ottoman factor. (Why, if Britain immediately wanted to go against the Ottomans, was Churchill so comparatively generous to them? Those warships were the Ottoman equivalent of the Belgium issue-a bit of PR. Churchill promised to return them after the war, and even pay compensation if they got damaged. Britain had a massive naval threat facing it, after all. The Ottoman leadership, with aggressive aims of its own, refused.) And that the Kaiser had, years before, previously considered an attack on France via Belgium; Britain warned him that they would intervene if they did so.
Grey was fixed on the idea of a continental alliance of Britain, France and Russia against Germany, and had tried hard since the First Moroccan Crisis to cement it. His perspective was (entirely justifiably in 1905) that Germany, combining its great industrial and increasing military (especially naval) strength with a severelly weakened Russia and an expansionist imperial policy, was upsetting the balance of power. He therefore took steps to oppose Germany. By 1914, this had came to a crisis point. Attempted detentes since 1912-in colonial and naval matters- had all failed, partly due to Britain, partly due to German insistance that Britain, if Ger restricted its fleet, kept out of a continental war. Germany was unnerved at its "encirclement", and Russia's recovering strength, and Grey still feared the consequences of an aggressive Germany. A couple of bullets later in Sarajevo, and the rest is history. And...
*Realises he wasn't on a thread about Britain, but Russia. No, really, that was my thought process. There's another one out there, and the way the thread was going confused me. Still, too long a post to waste. Have been revising recently.*
Right. What happens is an AH intervention in Serbia, with Germany looking on approvingly, and Russia wondering what had gone on in the Tsar's head-the Slavs needed protecting! (So yet another group is added to a long list of anti Tsarists-but not as long as the one there would be in OTL. The people only really started to turn against Nicky when the war-driven famine and casualties came. There may be future uprisings, but without the massive casualties amongst the old, loyal army, they could be crushed more effectively.) What happens next is a tense period in Europe. It is far from impossible that WWI could break out later, the way things were going. There was quite enough tension in Europe for everyone.
Grey was fixed on the idea of a continental alliance of Britain, France and Russia against Germany, and had tried hard since the First Moroccan Crisis to cement it. His perspective was (entirely justifiably in 1905) that Germany, combining its great industrial and increasing military (especially naval) strength with a severelly weakened Russia and an expansionist imperial policy, was upsetting the balance of power. He therefore took steps to oppose Germany. By 1914, this had came to a crisis point. Attempted detentes since 1912-in colonial and naval matters- had all failed, partly due to Britain, partly due to German insistance that Britain, if Ger restricted its fleet, kept out of a continental war. Germany was unnerved at its "encirclement", and Russia's recovering strength, and Grey still feared the consequences of an aggressive Germany. A couple of bullets later in Sarajevo, and the rest is history. And...
*Realises he wasn't on a thread about Britain, but Russia. No, really, that was my thought process. There's another one out there, and the way the thread was going confused me. Still, too long a post to waste. Have been revising recently.*
Right. What happens is an AH intervention in Serbia, with Germany looking on approvingly, and Russia wondering what had gone on in the Tsar's head-the Slavs needed protecting! (So yet another group is added to a long list of anti Tsarists-but not as long as the one there would be in OTL. The people only really started to turn against Nicky when the war-driven famine and casualties came. There may be future uprisings, but without the massive casualties amongst the old, loyal army, they could be crushed more effectively.) What happens next is a tense period in Europe. It is far from impossible that WWI could break out later, the way things were going. There was quite enough tension in Europe for everyone.