WI Cuba Refuses to Return Short Range Missiles?

Let's say that Cuba refuses to hand over the short range missiles back to the USSR. I have heard as manu as 100 were in Cuba in 1962. Would the USSR take militant actions? Would they tell Washington?

Song other ideas to consider:

What if the USSR doesn't ask for them back?

What if US discovers them after many are operational? (They would be discovered eventually.)

What if Cubans launch nukes? How would US react?

What if Cuba sells some nukes to other unstable nations?
 
Just to add I know the idea is quite implausible. Cuba would likely collapse within 2 years without Soviet backing in the sixties. Castro is a pretty crazy guy though and I think the Soviet ambassador could upset Castro to the point of him refusing to hand over the tactical nukes. Many other scenarios couls lead to the refusal but I think we should limit the actual changw of course to 1962 if possible.

The reason I ask is I am kind of flirting with the idea of writing a time line. I thought this might be a good cold war scenario that isn't terribly overdone.
 
The USA finds out and goes with plan B, Atomic holocaust.

The soviets guess as much and cut a deal saying that they will not defend Cuba so Cuba gets wiped out hopefully before they attack the USA and the USSR is an embarrassed pariah.
 
The USA finds out and goes with plan B, Atomic holocaust.

The soviets guess as much and cut a deal saying that they will not defend Cuba so Cuba gets wiped out hopefully before they attack the USA and the USSR is an embarrassed pariah.

The US wouldn't pre-emptively strike Cuba with nukes. An airstrike is well within the realm of possibility but even that wouldn't be a good idea once they were operational. Cuba obviously couldn't hold the world hostage but I think the US would understand that the threat is too much for a nuke first ask questions later policy. Besides, Kennedy would never approve such an operation. Maybe MacArthur or Walker but not the Kennedy Bros.
 
The US wouldn't pre-emptively strike Cuba with nukes. An airstrike is well within the realm of possibility but even that wouldn't be a good idea once they were operational. Cuba obviously couldn't hold the world hostage but I think the US would understand that the threat is too much for a nuke first ask questions later policy. Besides, Kennedy would never approve such an operation. Maybe MacArthur or Walker but not the Kennedy Bros.


The Nuke strike would be against the USSR.
 
Cuba is cut off by the Comecon, and still embargoed by the USA, resulting in the special period 30 years early only far worse
 
Cuba is cut off by the Comecon, and still embargoed by the USA, resulting in the special period 30 years early only far worse

Personally I don't think the Soviets would abandon Cubq unless Cuba started making threats.

BTW this would be after the quarantine is lifted. Could be reinstated I guess. I am thinking the Cubans could hide it until mid '63. Soviets would then deny knowing of the existence. Would USSR attack West Berlin if US hit Cuba preemptively?
 
Personally I don't think the Soviets would abandon Cubq unless Cuba started making threats.

They're not just going to ignore a nation stealing a significant part of their nuclear arsenal. Cuba can't really threaten the USSR with those bombs anyways.

Would USSR attack West Berlin if US hit Cuba preemptively?

Not if they had betrayed Moscow so monumentally, the US and USSR working together to enact some sort of regime change is more likely.
 
They're not just going to ignore a nation stealing a significant part of their nuclear arsenal. Cuba can't really threaten the USSR with those bombs anyways.



Not if they had betrayed Moscow so monumentally, the US and USSR working together to enact some sort of regime change is more likely.

I could see the Soviets trying to save face and cover it up. They wouldn't go to the US and say oh btw there are about 100 rogue nukes in Cuba, sorry. I was thinking something along the lines of an attempted coup by Spviets against Castro.
 
Personally I don't think the Soviets would abandon Cubq unless Cuba started making threats.

I agree with you here. If Castro started getting really uppity and threatened nuclear action against the United States (against the wishes of the USSR) then the Soviets would probably cut their losses and throw Cuba under the bus.
 
I agree with you here. If Castro started getting really uppity and threatened nuclear action against the United States (against the wishes of the USSR) then the Soviets would probably cut their losses and throw Cuba under the bus.

What wouls be the US reaction to the Soviets disowning Cuba? I don't think they would believe it. The US would probably believe it was some type of plot. They would then ramp up defenses in West Berlin and West Germany just in case. The USSR would get pretty peeved about it. I don't think the US would attack first in Europe but it might be enough of a threat to have Krushchev replaced by hardliners. This could enough to spiral into war.
 
Well to sweeten the deal, the Soviets would let the US know exactly what the Cubans had got, including all those missiles the US didn't previously know about.
 
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