WI Cuba and Florida exchange

Yes, yes, only Havana was conquered. But European treaties dont care what is actually occupied. Spain can cede the entire island as part of the Treaty of Paris in exchange for keeping Florida, the island is British at that point whether the Cubans acknowledge it or not that island is painted red on maps. Definitetly a South Africa type situation will develop though I am sure.

Just because Spain says the island is British doesn't mean the Cubans would agree. I question if the locals would simply lay down their arms.

A huge number of the British/American invasion force died of disease within three months. I'm pretty sure that campaign was the bloodiest that the British suffered in the war.

An interesting potential divergence point might be the British efforts to enforce their will on Cuba. What if the British, in addition to or instead of taxing America to pay for the war, also impressed thousands of Americans to help conquer Cuba after the peace?

Imagine British regulars patrolling through the towns and cities of America impressing soldiers into a colonial army intended for Cuba where most will die of disease. That would likely be one hell of a bone of contention.
 
Just because Spain says the island is British doesn't mean the Cubans would agree. I question if the locals would simply lay down their arms.

A huge number of the British/American invasion force died of disease within three months. I'm pretty sure that campaign was the bloodiest that the British suffered in the war.

An interesting potential divergence point might be the British efforts to enforce their will on Cuba. What if the British, in addition to or instead of taxing America to pay for the war, also impressed thousands of Americans to help conquer Cuba after the peace?

Imagine British regulars patrolling through the towns and cities of America impressing soldiers into a colonial army intended for Cuba where most will die of disease. That would likely be one hell of a bone of contention.
Um... by saying "a South African situation would occur" I already said in one sentence what your entire post says... South Africa= a situation in which the Netherlands gave the Cape Colony to the British and the Dutch "natives" did not agree with the turn over and therefore fought back and even made several short lived republics in defiance.
 
This is a fascinating idea, quite frankly. It's a late enough POD to not alter too much the prospect of a revolution/war in the Thirteen Colonies come the mid/late 1770s, while also being early enough to shift significantly dynamics in the British Empire. I don't see a possibly slightly larger British naval presence in Cuba interfering with Dutch trade with the Thirteen Colonies, but I do think a British Cuba in the medium to long term changes Britain's calculus in Central America, particularly with respect to Belize, the Mosquito Coast, and the prospects down the road for a transoceanic canal in the region.
 
Um... by saying "a South African situation would occur" I already said in one sentence what your entire post says... South Africa= a situation in which the Netherlands gave the Cape Colony to the British and the Dutch "natives" did not agree with the turn over and therefore fought back and even made several short lived republics in defiance.

I'm not sure if that was explicit but ok.

Note that Britain would have more of a problem with Cuba immediately than they would in South Africa in the late 1900's. I think South Africa was relatively quiet from 1800 to 1870'sish. I think the original Boer Trek was spurred without a huge amount of bloodshed and it was only later British encroachment inland that led to the Boer Wars.

Britain also had a much longer supply line via sailing ship in 1762 on in Cuba than they would against the Boers when Steam Power was available as well as railroads. Diseases would have been particularly brutal in that time period (1760's) as one might see with the conquest of Havana. Taking the rest of the island by force may be beyond their resources.

Note that the British attempt to conquer Honduras and Puerto Rico in the American Revolutionary War had among the highest casualty rates in the war due to disease. That is what Britain could expect from Cuba in the 1760's.

Conquering large-scale lands in malaria-infested areas is a tough ask in that time period. It would be easy to go through tens of thousands of soldiers in only a few years.

That is why I brought up Britain using American "colonial" troops via impressment to do the job. It would be another bone of contention between American and Britain that would likely add another line of complaint to the Declaration of Independence:

"His Majesty, against their will, abducted thousands of loyal subjects for dispatch as forced soldiers to the West Indies without the approval of the Assemblies..."
 
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