WI- crushing Soviet victory at the Polish-soviet war

archaeogeek

Banned
Why would the Soviets go along with a rump Poland when they are in Warsaw?

Thinking of it it's probably early enough for Poland to fall without the Great and Little Ententes being in a position to do much about it, however I suspect that it wouldn't sit well with other powers.
 
Thinking of it it's probably early enough for Poland to fall without the Great and Little Ententes being in a position to do much about it, however I suspect that it wouldn't sit well with other powers.

It might not, but can they really do much about it, and will the Germans make a play to retake their losses to Poland?
 

Typo

Banned
Why would Germany care? They had strong, good ties to the USSR during this period; Rapallo came alter, and the Soviets were debating giving the Germans their old borders in return for neutrality. German dockworkers in danzig striked to prevent French weapons from being delivered to Poland.
Except Rapallo isn't going to happen. Revolutionary internationalism in the Soviet leadership would triumph with a Soviet victory in Poland. The sympathies of the German working class with communism is going to cause the German ruling class to very much care with the Soviets on the border preaching exporting the revolution to Germany.
 
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Typo

Banned
Pretty much this here. France and Britain can go fuck themselves, it's going to start righting the wrongs of Versailles, and if it means locking arms with the USSR, so be it.
If the Bolsheviks are on the German border rest assured the British and the French are going to relax the terms of Versailles.
 
I wonder if this could revive the Communist efforts in Hungary and Finland, and whether this dooms the Baltic States.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
It might not, but can they really do much about it, and will the Germans make a play to retake their losses to Poland?

Potentially, yes, with the likely exception of the grand duchy of Poznan (the german leadership could justify West Prussia, Silesia, not Poznan); the case of Germany was already a done thing and France and Britain were busy pacifying the Balkans and Turkey.
 
Potentially, yes, with the likely exception of the grand duchy of Poznan (the german leadership could justify West Prussia, Silesia, not Poznan); the case of Germany was already a done thing and France and Britain were busy pacifying the Balkans and Turkey.

Is Posnan not in play simply for being too Polish?
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Is Posnan not in play simply for being too Polish?

Pretty much, yes; only the nazis saw it as "Germania irredenta" - it was clearly not part of Germany when it was handed to Prussia. Of course I'm probably overestimating the degree of reason present among non-fascist revanchists.

Also its german population was insignificant.
 
Pretty much, yes; only the nazis saw it as "Germania irredenta" - it was clearly not part of Germany when it was handed to Prussia. Of course I'm probably overestimating the degree of reason present among non-fascist revanchists.

Also its german population was insignificant.

My thought is that Germanization takes off in Poznan because the German state welcomes Baltic German refugees when the USSR seizes the Baltic States nearly twenty years early.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
My thought is that Germanization takes off in Poznan because the German state welcomes Baltic German refugees when the USSR seizes the Baltic States nearly twenty years early.

The grand duchy of Poznan had a population of nearly 3 million, there were barely at most a third of a million Baltendeutsch (they were less than 10% of the baltic population which amounted to more or less 4 millions; added to that the simple fact that I suspect this would lead to population exchanges between Poland and Germany to begin with: there was a significant Prussian polish minority for one, and it would likely have led to a swap).
 
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I wonder if this could revive the Communist efforts in Hungary and Finland, and whether this dooms the Baltic States.

At this point, Hungary is going throught the White Terror, Béla Kun et al. have fled the country and the revolution's back is broken. I think they are not going to rebound, not without outright Soviet intervention.

In Finland, the Social Democrats were now led by the moderate Väinö Tanner and had renounced all revolutionary notions since 1918. In Spring 1920, the left fringe of the SDP had broken off to form the SSTP (Socialist Workers' Party of Finland), which was in close contact with the SKP (Finnish Communist Party) in exile in Soviet Russia. It was also closely monitored by the newly formed State Police.

In the elections of 1922 the SSTP would receive, IOTL, only 15% of the popular vote: the far left would not be able to ignite a serious insurrection at this time, the right and the moderates of all stripes were too strong and would have supported the centre-right government of Prime Minister Erich. Again, an open Soviet attack would be the only option to rekindle a Communist revolution.

The Soviets had signed a peace trety with all three Baltic States at the time of the Battle of Warsaw, if that is the POD. This is something I didn't realize when writing the previous posts. The deal with Estonia had been signed in February, with Lithuania July 12th and with Latvia August 11th. The last two needed to be ratified, but anyway I think the Soviets breaking these deals with the Baltics would be something that would create universal hostility in the West, on top of everything else.

Be the Soviet attitude towards these treaties what it may, the question remains about the willingness and ability of the Soviets to launch a campaign at this point to take the Baltics. How possible is it?
 
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