I wonder if this could revive the Communist efforts in Hungary and Finland, and whether this dooms the Baltic States.
At this point, Hungary is going throught the White Terror, Béla Kun et al. have fled the country and the revolution's back is broken. I think they are not going to rebound, not without outright Soviet intervention.
In Finland, the Social Democrats were now led by the moderate Väinö Tanner and had renounced all revolutionary notions since 1918. In Spring 1920, the left fringe of the SDP had broken off to form the SSTP (Socialist Workers' Party of Finland), which was in close contact with the SKP (Finnish Communist Party) in exile in Soviet Russia. It was also closely monitored by the newly formed State Police.
In the elections of 1922 the SSTP would receive, IOTL, only 15% of the popular vote: the far left would not be able to ignite a serious insurrection at this time, the right and the moderates of all stripes were too strong and would have supported the centre-right government of Prime Minister Erich. Again, an open Soviet attack would be the only option to rekindle a Communist revolution.
The Soviets
had signed a peace trety with all three Baltic States at the time of the Battle of Warsaw, if that is the POD. This is something I didn't realize when writing the previous posts. The deal with Estonia had been signed in February, with Lithuania July 12th and with Latvia August 11th. The last two needed to be ratified, but anyway I think the Soviets breaking these deals with the Baltics would be something that would create universal hostility in the West, on top of everything else.
Be the Soviet attitude towards these treaties what it may, the question remains about the willingness and ability of the Soviets to launch a campaign at this point to take the Baltics. How possible is it?