Crushing Croatian defeat at Pákozd - Early Austro-Hungarian Compromise?

So what if the forces of Jellacic suffered a crushing defeat at the Battle of Pákozd and Jellacic himself was captured as well? How could this affect the situation between Austria and Hungary? Could this lead to the preservation of the successes of the revolution or a conflict with Austria is unavoidable?
 
I assume the Hungarian army might march on Vienna unopposed. I have entertained this idea before, as possibly leading to an Ausgleich in 1848, provided that the Habsburgs are willing to negotiate once Vienna is taken, in fear of the revolution spreading. At this point the Hungarians did not aim for complete independence and a new emperor (Franz Josef) could be a clean slate that the reformed empire can rally behind. The revolutionary fervor in Hungary might also sideline the nobility which could do wonders to the AH.
 
I assume the Hungarian army might march on Vienna unopposed. I have entertained this idea before, as possibly leading to an Ausgleich in 1848, provided that the Habsburgs are willing to negotiate once Vienna is taken, in fear of the revolution spreading. At this point the Hungarians did not aim for complete independence and a new emperor (Franz Josef) could be a clean slate that the reformed empire can rally behind. The revolutionary fervor in Hungary might also sideline the nobility which could do wonders to the AH.
Would a war between Austria and Hungary still take place though? If I remember correctly, the habsburgs didn't openly support Jellacic only after Pákozd. With the news of Jellacic's defeat and capture, I think the Habsburgs wouldn't risk an armed conflict with the Hungarians, who at this point were still loyal to the crown.

The tension wouldn't just go away though. Maybe indeed a compromise would take place around 1849-50, but I'm not sure.

How could this affect latter events though? Like the Crimean War, Risorgimento or the German unification?
 
Would a war between Austria and Hungary still take place though? If I remember correctly, the habsburgs didn't openly support Jellacic only after Pákozd. With the news of Jellacic's defeat and capture, I think the Habsburgs wouldn't risk an armed conflict with the Hungarians, who at this point were still loyal to the crown.

The tension wouldn't just go away though. Maybe indeed a compromise would take place around 1849-50, but I'm not sure.

How could this affect latter events though? Like the Crimean War, Risorgimento or the German unification?
Sardinia and Prussia will still have to fight for either, so it all depends on the AH military. If they somehow manage to get a better armed force together and modernize accordingly, who knows?
 
Sardinia and Prussia will still have to fight for either, so it all depends on the AH military. If they somehow manage to get a better armed force together and modernize accordingly, who knows?
Well, atleast the costly buerocracy and the passive resistance in Hungary wouldn't be an issue in TTL. Earlier change in politics could also boost the OTL poorly functioning economy. With better financial situation, the modernisation of both the Austrian and Hungarian armies are much more likely. Especially if Austria and Hungary are competing with each other.

But what about the Crimean War? Given that Austria is not indebted by the Russians in TTL, the Habsburgs would probably join the war, aren't they? What could be the goals of such intervention be? Maybe we could see a postponed Romanian unification and the return of Bessarabia to Moldavia.
 
Well, atleast the costly buerocracy and the passive resistance in Hungary wouldn't be an issue in TTL. Earlier change in politics could also boost the OTL poorly functioning economy. With better financial situation, the modernisation of both the Austrian and Hungarian armies are much more likely. Especially if Austria and Hungary are competing with each other.

But what about the Crimean War? Given that Austria is not indebted by the Russians in TTL, the Habsburgs would probably join the war, aren't they? What could be the goals of such intervention be? Maybe we could see a postponed Romanian unification and the return of Bessarabia to Moldavia.
What is there to gain? Was putting a wedge between Moldova and Wallachia a foreign policy aim of Austria IOTL? Not sure if the new A-H would like to alienate Russia at this point. The French and the British will have to offer something actually worth it. Perhaps a promised nonintervention in Italy by France?
 
What is there to gain? Was putting a wedge between Moldova and Wallachia a foreign policy aim of Austria IOTL? Not sure if the new A-H would like to alienate Russia at this point. The French and the British will have to offer something actually worth it. Perhaps a promised nonintervention in Italy by France?
No, it wasn't a goal, but the two principalites were united primarily to create a buffer between Russia and Turkey. If they come under Austro-Hungarian hegemony, then there's no need to unite them in the first place. Also Hungary would probably favour this sceniario because of it's Romanian minorities.

About other goals, what about Congress Poland?
 
Maybe placing a relative on the Polish throne? Just as they planned it during ww1.
That assumes a free Poland. One that would have claims on Galicia-Lodomeria and various Prussian territories. A recipe for unrest in the whole region, along with a Prussia not letting them do it without a war.
 
That assumes a free Poland. One that would have claims on Galicia-Lodomeria and various Prussian territories. A recipe for unrest in the whole region, along with a Prussia not letting them do it without a war.
To be honest, that could actually be the best opportunity for Austria-Hungary to settle its disputes with his neighbours.

While Russia is preoccupied with France and Britain, Austria-Hungary could deal with Prussia. The best case sceniario would be if whole Poland (Duchy of Poznan, Congress Poland and Galicia) would be reunited with a Habsburg as king. Moldavia could get Bessarabia and Bucovina back, and alongside Wallachia they would become Habsburg protectorates or something similar.
 
To be honest, that could actually be the best opportunity for Austria-Hungary to settle its disputes with his neighbours.

While Russia is preoccupied with France and Britain, Austria-Hungary could deal with Prussia. The best case sceniario would be if whole Poland (Duchy of Poznan, Congress Poland and Galicia) would be reunited with a Habsburg as king. Moldavia could get Bessarabia and Bucovina back, and alongside Wallachia they would become Habsburg protectorates or something similar.
Not quite sure if this is the interest of Austria. Poland with a Habsburg king came up around WW1, but only as a way to compensate the huge German gains in the East. At this point the status quo and the Concert of Europe was very much in the Austrian interest. You could make an argument for Hungarians having sympathy for a free Poland, but that is more a romantic thought than actual realpolitik. Controlling Poland is just not worth to alienate Russia and Prussia. Especially since the other Great Power on the continent (France) is not very friendly either.
 
Not quite sure if this is the interest of Austria. Poland with a Habsburg king came up around WW1, but only as a way to compensate the huge German gains in the East. At this point the status quo and the Concert of Europe was very much in the Austrian interest. You could make an argument for Hungarians having sympathy for a free Poland, but that is more a romantic thought than actual realpolitik. Controlling Poland is just not worth to alienate Russia and Prussia. Especially since the other Great Power on the continent (France) is not very friendly either.
Then that means there won't be any significant changes regarding Russia and Crimean war, right?
The next closest event is the second Italian War for Independence. If the Habsburgs win, how long could the status quo in Italy be maintained?
 
Then that means there won't be any significant changes regarding Russia and Crimean war, right?
The next closest event is the second Italian War for Independence. If the Habsburgs win, how long could the status quo in Italy be maintained?
Correct. I believe the more far-reaching consequences would be the longer time the A-H can spend on consolidation, industrialization and ways to assimilate the minorities.

As for the Italians: I think it's either some form of autonomy or they let them go one way or another.

If this early A-H results in a more liberal Hungary that puts their troublesome nobility to rest, we may see an actual Danubian Confederation down the line, with a four state solution (Austria, Bohemia, Hungary, Croatia) and special autonomy for Poles and Italians. The rest will likely be thrown under the bus unfortunately, as they have little leverage and are not states within a states. The Slovakians have not even formed a common consciousness yet and the Romanians are mostly peasantry, having little way to make their voices heard, especially if there is no united Romania in the neighborhood.

This is of course a very optimistic view, but I have a soft spot for a surviving AH.
 
What about this sceniario?:
>POD
>High tension between the Court and the Hungarian government.
>1849, a compromise is reached (similar to OTL 1867).
>1853-'56, Crimean War is like OTL.
>1859, 2nd Italian War of Independence ends with Habsburg victory.
>Status Quo Ante Bellum
>1864, 2nd Schleswig War, no changes.
>1866, Habsburg-Prussian war, Habsburg victory.
> Rheinland, Westphalia, Schweslig, Silesia to Habsburg; Pre-Congress Saxony restored.
>Bismarck is forced to resign. Wilhelm I abdicates.
>German Confederation is strengthened.
>France is greatly concerned with the Austrian advancements.
>1870-1872, Habsburg-French War.
>War is reignited in Italy too.
>War ends with Habsburg victory.
>France loses Corsica, but is compensated with Savoy and Nice.
>House of Savoy loses Savoy, Nice, Piedmont and Liguria, but is compensated with Corsica
>Tuscanian Habsburgs gain Piedmont and Liguria
>German Empire is proclaimed
>FJ passes the Hungarian crown to his younger brother, Maximilian.
>Galicia and Dalmatia are ceded to Hungary.
>FJ cedes Lombard-Veneto to the Tuscanian Habsburg branch
>Kingdom of Italy is proclaimed by Tuscanians, despite not even uniting Northern Italy entirely.
>Modena is transferred to Kgdm. of Italy, Habsburg-Este branch is compensated with Westphalia.
>Kgdm. of Italy wages war against the Papal-Parmese-Sicilian-Sardinian Alliance and wins.
>Italy is united

As you can see, it's just a very raw and vague idea of mine. Feel free to criticise, enhance, modify, suggest, argue, etc.!
 
Lets see how things went OTL:

Hungary beats the Croatians at Pákozd. They retreat to Vienna with the hungarian army following them. Till the Austrian border. Than they halt and debate if they should cross the border for two weeks. Reason: The "hungarian" army was actually an imperial army placed under the leadership of the hungarian pairlaiment and the officers were ready to fight the croatians as they were convinced they were the rebels. This caused problems till much later during the war. The leader of the army at Pákozd, János Móga rather resigned later because he didnt want to fight the emperor.

In this time line they dont have the excuse of the croatian army to cross the austrian border. In this circumstances I dont see them swiftly moving toward Vienna. There might be an AUsgleich but hungary wont - cant seriously threaten Vienna if Vienna declares the Croatian rebels.
 
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