WI: Crown Prince Rudolf of Austria Didn't Die?

War or Not?

  • War!

    Votes: 9 52.9%
  • No!

    Votes: 8 47.1%

  • Total voters
    17
What if Rudolf didn't commit suicide? Would he still have succeeded to the Austrian Throne upon his father's death? More importantly would World War 1 happen at all? My theory is that war would still occur just not a world war probably. More likely that he would be a puppet emperor because of his mental instability.
 
Great War was totally inevitable on this point. There might be just some another casus belli.
 

TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
Great War was totally inevitable on this point. There might be just some another casus belli.
I disagree.
But this point has been inconclusively debated for a hundred years already :)
As to Rudolf - his living or not is not that important for WWI to happen or not, here I fully agree with you.
 
Last edited:
NO.

WWI as we know it won't happen.

Because it started because Franz Ferdinand was in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914.

I'm 99% sure that Rudolf won't be in that same place in that same time.

And without it, I can't imagine how a World War I would start since I believe that WWI starting required a specific set of circumstances leading to specific set of events that lead to war, and changing those circumstances, and events would derail it.
 
NO.

WWI as we know it won't happen.

Because it started because Franz Ferdinand was in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914.

I'm 99% sure that Rudolf won't be in that same place in that same time.

And without it, I can't imagine how a World War I would start since I believe that WWI starting required a specific set of circumstances leading to specific set of events that lead to war, and changing those circumstances, and events would derail it.
Since WWI was kicked off by a local war becoming a wider war due to the alliance system some sort of world war is likely if there's a local war involving members on each side. The Balkans appears to be the likely tinderbox based on its issues.
 
Since WWI was kicked off by a local war becoming a wider war due to the alliance system some sort of world war is likely if there's a local war involving members on each side. The Balkans appears to be the likely tinderbox based on its issues.

Yes, but that's not assured. The first and Second Balkan War, for example, did not become a World War. Neither did the Russo Japanese War. Or the Russo-Turkish War. Countless crisis came and went before WWI, like the Moroccan Crisis, or the Annexation of Bosnia in 1908, the Fashoda Incident, the Agadir Crisis, and that did not lead to a General War. It only led to a diplomatic conference that sorted things out between the Powers.

If war was so inevitable, I would say that WWI would have started way before 1914.

In fact, I would argue that even after Sarajevo, WWI could have been averted before August 1, 1914.
 
Yes, but that's not assured. The first and Second Balkan War, for example, did not become a World War. Neither did the Russo Japanese War. Or the Russo-Turkish War. Countless crisis came and went before WWI, like the Moroccan Crisis, or the Annexation of Bosnia in 1908, the Fashoda Incident, the Agadir Crisis, and that did not lead to a General War. It only led to a diplomatic conference that sorted things out between the Powers.
Most of those examples don't involve 2 great powers. The ones that do are before the alliance system in place by 1914.

If war was so inevitable, I would say that WWI would have started way before 1914.
By 1914 the alliances were in place such that a general war just required something to fight about.
It's less that it was inevitable than more inevitable than peace.
In fact, I would argue that even after Sarajevo, WWI could have been averted before August 1, 1914.
Not impossible but difficult. And the results could still lead to war some few years later.
 
Most of those examples don't involve 2 great powers. The ones that do are before the alliance system in place by 1914.


By 1914 the alliances were in place such that a general war just required something to fight about.
It's less that it was inevitable than more inevitable than peace.

Not impossible but difficult. And the results could still lead to war some few years later.

Not really. The Bosnian Annexation involved Russia and Austria Hungary, and it happened in 1908, when the Alliance System were set in place. The Morrocan Crisis happened in 1905 and 1911, between Germany and France, when the Alliance system were in place. If war was so inevitable with the alliance system in place, it should have started during those times. But it did not.

Before Sarajevo, things were peaceful in Europe in 1914. There was nothing, in May 1914, that would lead anyone to think that a war would break out that summer. And really, if the assassination did not happen, I cannot simply think of anything that could lead to war that could not be settled by diplomacy. I mean, anything could spark off a general war, but more than likely, that spark could be diffused, like all the sparks before 1914.
 
Top