WI: Crawford dies in 1823

John Calhoun continues his campaign to be President and doesn't agree to be anybody's VP (or goes back on that agreement). He carries Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia (Crawford's OTL carries plus Calhoun's home state). The $64,000 question is whether he can take North Carolina away from Jackson.

Regardless of whether he or Jackson takes North Carolina, the outcome in the House is the same, and John Quincy Adams becomes President. If Jackson took NC, then Crawford's death is a tiny blip which changes nothing, except perhaps giving a boost to the career of whoever becomes VP instead of Calhoun. If Calhoun managed to carry NC, though, there can be no charge of "corrupt bargaining" - JQA had a plurality and thus could be said to have won the election. Without that hanging over his head, he has fair odds of re-election in 1828, and SecState Clay has better odds to succeed him in turn.
 
Can we assume that all of Crawford's votes will go to Calhoun?

If even three of his 41 should switch to Clay, that moves him up into third place, whence he could have gone on to win in the HoR.
 
Can we assume that all of Crawford's votes will go to Calhoun?

If even three of his 41 should switch to Clay, that moves him up into third place, whence he could have gone on to win in the HoR.
Let's look at what Crawford won:

Georgia - No surprise, as it was Crawford's home state. Votes were determined by state legislature. The legislature probably voted for Crawford as he was the " Southern establishment" candidate in the race. Calhoun might be able to win Georgia if he can establish himself as the establishment candidate. Else, it might go to Jackson or Clay.

Virginia - Probably due to the support of the old Democratic-Republican establishment like Jefferson and Madison. Crawford swept the state in OTL - 55% with no one else getting above 23%. Henry Clay did horrible here - less than 3% of the vote. He's not winning Virginia in 1824. Adams did a bit better than Jackson, but with Crawford gone, Jackson could pass him. I imagine that if the choice is between Jackson, Adams, and Calhoun, that Jefferson and Madison and the other old establishment figures will back Calhoun.

5 Votes from New York - These were chosen by the New York state legislature. Who knows how they would vote otherwise - Maybe if Calhoun can win the caucus vote like Crawford did they would still back him?

1 Vote from Maryland - This was decided on a district by district basis. Jackson and Adams dominated the vote here - if one of them can get just a portion of Crawford's votes, they will probably win that electoral vote.

2 Votes from Delaware - Chosen by state legislature. Delaware's remaining vote went to JQA, so they might all go Adams here.

Places Crawford got no Electoral votes, but could be affected by his absence and Calhoun's presence:

South Carolina - Went to Jackson in OTL, will go to Calhoun.

Illinois - Votes chosen by electoral district. If Calhoun is weaker here, Crawford's votes could go to Adams, giving him another vote or two, or Jackson, giving him another.

Even if Calhoun got all of Crawford's votes, he would need to get a decent portion of Jackson's votes to win North Carolina. If he got around half of Jackson's votes he might be able to win Mississippi or swing it to Adams, but that level of support seems unlikely.

Henry Clay got 37 Electoral Votes. He doesn't look likely to win any more through popular election.

Calhoun will have South Carolina's 11 votes. If he wins Georgia's 9 and Virginia's 24, he will have 44 votes. Clay isn't going to win Crawford's single vote in Maryland, so even if he wins the five in New York and the vote in Delaware, he won't pass Crawford.

The questions:

  • Can Calhoun beat Jackson in North Carolina?
  • Does Calhoun win Georgia? (Jackson, Adams, or Clay could all win it)
  • Does Calhoun win Virginia? (Jackson or Adams could win it)
If Jackson holds NC, and wins GA and VA, and every single other electoral vote Crawford got OTL, he still does not have enough votes to win outright thanks to South Carolina backing Calhoun. However, if either Virginia or Georgia goes to anyone but Calhoun, then Henry Clay will make it to the House and probably become president.
 
Can we assume that all of Crawford's votes will go to Calhoun?

If even three of his 41 should switch to Clay, that moves him up into third place, whence he could have gone on to win in the HoR.

Yes, we can. No Crawford voter would consider switching to Clay or Adams...Adams is a tariffs-and-improvements Yankee, Clay is a tariffs-and-improvements backwoods upstart, while Crawford was the conservative southern "farmer" in this race and the one endorsed by Jefferson and Madison. Calhoun cited Crawford as his reason for dropping out of the race - he realized that he and Crawford were splitting the conservative southern vote and delivering the race to Jackson or Adams. You can certainly argue that Calhoun had some distorted perceptions, but his political instincts were generally sound.

The idea of a few Crawford supporters finding Jackson acceptable is plausible enough - even if Jackson was a backwoods arriviste adventurer - But only in North Carolina is this relevant, and in OTL Jackson benefited from Calhoun stumping FOR him in NC. If Crawford is dead, Calhoun will be stumping for himself and against Jackson in NC. It will be a close state whichever of them wins.
 
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