Can we assume that all of Crawford's votes will go to Calhoun?
If even three of his 41 should switch to Clay, that moves him up into third place, whence he could have gone on to win in the HoR.
Let's look at what Crawford won:
Georgia - No surprise, as it was Crawford's home state. Votes were determined by state legislature. The legislature probably voted for Crawford as he was the " Southern establishment" candidate in the race. Calhoun might be able to win Georgia if he can establish himself as the establishment candidate. Else, it might go to Jackson or Clay.
Virginia - Probably due to the support of the old Democratic-Republican establishment like Jefferson and Madison. Crawford swept the state in OTL - 55% with no one else getting above 23%. Henry Clay did horrible here - less than 3% of the vote. He's not winning Virginia in 1824. Adams did a bit better than Jackson, but with Crawford gone, Jackson could pass him. I imagine that if the choice is between Jackson, Adams, and Calhoun, that Jefferson and Madison and the other old establishment figures will back Calhoun.
5 Votes from New York - These were chosen by the New York state legislature. Who knows how they would vote otherwise - Maybe if Calhoun can win the caucus vote like Crawford did they would still back him?
1 Vote from Maryland - This was decided on a district by district basis. Jackson and Adams dominated the vote here - if one of them can get just a portion of Crawford's votes, they will probably win that electoral vote.
2 Votes from Delaware - Chosen by state legislature. Delaware's remaining vote went to JQA, so they might all go Adams here.
Places Crawford got no Electoral votes, but could be affected by his absence and Calhoun's presence:
South Carolina - Went to Jackson in OTL, will go to Calhoun.
Illinois - Votes chosen by electoral district. If Calhoun is weaker here, Crawford's votes could go to Adams, giving him another vote or two, or Jackson, giving him another.
Even if Calhoun got all of Crawford's votes, he would need to get a decent portion of Jackson's votes to win North Carolina. If he got around half of Jackson's votes he might be able to win Mississippi or swing it to Adams, but that level of support seems unlikely.
Henry Clay got 37 Electoral Votes. He doesn't look likely to win any more through popular election.
Calhoun will have South Carolina's 11 votes. If he wins Georgia's 9 and Virginia's 24, he will have 44 votes. Clay isn't going to win Crawford's single vote in Maryland, so even if he wins the five in New York and the vote in Delaware, he won't pass Crawford.
The questions:
- Can Calhoun beat Jackson in North Carolina?
- Does Calhoun win Georgia? (Jackson, Adams, or Clay could all win it)
- Does Calhoun win Virginia? (Jackson or Adams could win it)
If Jackson holds NC, and wins GA and VA, and every single other electoral vote Crawford got OTL, he still does not have enough votes to win outright thanks to South Carolina backing Calhoun. However, if either Virginia or Georgia goes to anyone but Calhoun, then Henry Clay will make it to the House and probably become president.